NFL Prop Bets Week 9 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) welcome Adam Rosenberg (@HeyRosenberg) of the Prop Cast, filling in for CJ, to break down NFL Prop Bets Week 9. Sean Green likes Chuba Hubbard over three and a half catches at plus 178, while Ryan Kramer goes for Jonathan Taylor two touchdowns at plus 460.
Rosenberg Steps In For NFL Prop Bets Week 9
Sean Green and Ryan Kramer are a man down this week, because CJ is doing standup at the Pittsburgh Improv all weekend. Filling the chair is Adam Rosenberg from the Prop Cast, who opens with his best CJ impression and a detour into made-to-order Sheetz sandwiches. Then it’s down to business: five props apiece, a ladder each and a Degen Only play to close.
Adam Rosenberg leads off in New Orleans with KC Concepcion under 46.5 receiving yards at -114. The Browns quarterback holds the ball too long and can’t push it downfield, and Concepcion lives underneath with an average depth of target of only seven. The Saints come off a bye and have done a good job against wide receivers, so this is a fade of Concepcion and the entire Browns team. Ryan Kramer goes to Miami with Greg Dulcich 40 or more receiving yards at +103, noting Dulcich has hit 40 in three of his last four games and caught four balls in each of those. Sean Green takes Dulcich over 3.5 receptions instead. The Lions give up 8.71 catches per game to tight ends, Jack Campbell is out, and nobody else in that Dolphins tight end room is getting work.
Fading Drake Maye Twice And Feeding Kyle Pitts
Adam Rosenberg lives in New England thanks to his wife, so naturally he is fading a Patriot. The pick is Drake Maye under 5.5 rush attempts at -117. Green Bay is good at shutting down quarterback runs, and the recent sample backs it up: Bryce Young had zero carries, Jared Goff and Dak Prescott had two each, and Tyson Bagent had three. Maye also doesn’t run when New England loses, and this is a game the Patriots should lose. Ryan Kramer stays in the same game with Maye under 34.5 yards on his longest completion. Maye has cleared that number in six of eight games, but this Green Bay defense doesn’t give up explosives. If that feels too scary, look at the Maye interception prop at -110, a strong price for a quarterback who tends to start throwing picks when the lid is on.
The auto-play logic for Sean Green is simple: find the tight end facing the Bengals and take his receiving yards. That’s Kyle Pitts over 41.5 in Madrid, against a Cincinnati defense allowing 88.7 yards per game to the position. Pitts has been up and down with the Falcons passing game, but against bad tight end defenses he eats, and getting to 42 feels like the right side. Meanwhile the Patriots pass catchers keep thinning out. Hunter Henry logged another DNP, and New England was already thin at the position before that news.
Quentin Johnston, Jonathan Taylor And A Pickens Fade
The third play from Adam Rosenberg is a bold one, a positive Chargers prop. He takes Quentin Johnston 40 or more receiving yards at +138, because the Texans are quietly the second-worst defense in the league and every WR1 has blown them up. Jakobi Meyers had 83 against them and George Pickens had 75. Johnston’s average catch goes about 13 yards, and the Chargers have played from behind all season, which sets up volume even if Houston wins. He actually likes the Texans in the game and floats a reverse correlation with Houston and a 60-yard Johnston alt for anyone who wants more juice.
Ryan Kramer zigs into left field with Jonathan Taylor two touchdowns at +460. He has watched more Colts press conferences than usual, plus a long video from Taylor’s girlfriend that suggests Taylor is annoyed, and he reads that as a chip on the shoulder against a Cowboys team in shambles. Sean Green stays in that game and fades the other side of the drama with George Pickens under 4.5 receptions. Jerry may want Pickens more involved, but Ryan Flournoy is running more routes and the Colts don’t give up many catches. Then there’s the clip of Pickens running through the tunnel right after a field goal. He wants no part of this team, and five catches would be a shock.
Bo Nix And Two Ways To Bet Chuba Hubbard
Adam Rosenberg goes positive again with Bo Nix over 210 passing yards, even though he likes Carolina in the game. The Panthers hemorrhage yards and rarely get to the quarterback, with a low havoc rate and an even lower conversion on it. Denver also throws more on the road, mostly because they are usually trailing there. Four of the last six quarterbacks to face Carolina cleared this number, including three of the last four. Jordan Love just threw for 288 against them, Goff had 400 and Tanner McKee put up 215 before getting benched.
That pairs nicely with the Carolina side of the game. Ryan Kramer takes Chuba Hubbard 70 or more rushing yards at +100, arguing the matchup sets up for the Panthers run game and that anyone preparing off Carolina’s pass rate over expectation won’t see a heavy dose of Chuba coming. Kenneth Walker was supposedly shut down last game and still got 69. Sean Green also likes Chuba but goes to the receiving market with over 3.5 receptions at +178. Denver allows over five catches a game to running backs, and Hubbard has caught four and seven balls in his last two games, which makes him the easy outlet against the Broncos pass rush.
Giants, Eagles And The Bazooka Joe Number
Adam Rosenberg apologizes in advance for his last regular prop, a pro-Giants play: Darnell Mooney 20 or more receiving yards at +158. He says he is pretty close to Randy Quaid levels on this Eagles defense, which hasn’t been able to stop anybody lining up on the same side as Cooper DeJean. Philadelphia allows 56 yards a game to the WR3, last in the league, and Mooney fills that role with Malik Nabers banged up. Sean Green calls it a disgusting prop. Ryan Kramer wonders how much Mooney plays with Theo Johnson back in heavier personnel, but figures two catches for 34 yards is probably enough anyway.
The last regular prop from Ryan Kramer sits in that same game and leans on the Giants pass defense. Joe Milton, Bazooka Joe to the guys, is listed at 189.5 passing yards, and only Stafford and Jayden Daniels (199) have topped their number against New York this year. C.J. Stroud had 153, Jacoby Brissett 166, Cam Ward 181 and Dak Prescott 175. Sean Green expects Bazooka Joe to light it up on Sunday anyway. His own last prop is Jadarian Price over 50.5 rushing yards against Arizona. Mike Macdonald said Price would have significantly fewer restrictions, he cleared this number on 13 carries the last time Seattle played the Cardinals, and Zach Charbonnet hasn’t looked explosive.
A $100 Underdog Entry That Pays $650
The guys build a three-leg Underdog entry next. Adam Rosenberg figures some Chargers receiver is going to get yards, so he takes Tre Harris higher 31.5 receiving yards. Sean Green adds Kalen Ballage higher 36.5 rushing yards against the Raiders run defense, because McCaffrey isn’t 100 percent and the offense seems to like throwing to him more than pounding the rock with him. Ryan Kramer wants Jonathan Taylor higher 62.5 rushing yards, and the rush yards beat out a single Taylor touchdown when it comes to a vote. Together the three legs turn a $100 entry into $650.
Ladders On Tre Tucker, Malik Willis And Savion Williams
Filling in for the Laddie Daddy, Adam Rosenberg goes with Tre Tucker receptions. Tucker had one catch on 52 snaps last week, but his team is a nine or 10-point road dog against the Niners and should be chasing. Drake London just caught seven balls in that matchup, and Tucker had five or six straight games with four or more catches before the Jets game. The ladder starts at 3.5 receptions (+124), then 4.5 (+270), 5.5 (+550) and seven catches at 11-1. Catches beat yards here for the better odds and the two-minute-drill volume that comes with trailing.
Ryan Kramer ladders Malik Willis passing touchdowns against a banged-up Lions secondary. Detroit opened the season giving up three touchdown passes each to the Saints, Bills and Jets, has also allowed three to the Cardinals, and gave up two in every other game. Over 1.5 at +160 is a great bet by itself, and Willis has shown more promise since the bye. Over 2.5 pays +575, and over 3.5 sits at 19-1. Sean Green asks if that means a Dolphins lean. Not at all, because Miami should be chasing by two or three touchdowns the entire game in a matchup that’s going to the moon.
Sean Green wanted a piece of the Packers passing game, but Jordan Love’s base rung already starts at 267 yards and the receivers come with drops and a rib injury. So the pick lands on Savion Williams receiving yards. Williams had five yards last game, but before that he posted 47 and 32, each a career high at the time, so two of his three games this season set a new best. The rungs run 25 yards (+150), 30 (+212), 40 (+390), 50 (+670) and 60 at +1140. Love likes chucking it up, and two of those shots against the Pats would do it.
Degen Only Plays From 164-1 To 712-1
Adam Rosenberg opens the Degen Only round with three legs: Jonathan Taylor two touchdowns as the safe piece, Jonah Coleman two touchdowns as Denver’s lead back at 7-1, and Tre Tucker five receptions at +270. Together that pays 164-1. Ryan Kramer goes to defensive touchdowns and round robins three of them: the Saints against the Browns at +650, the Giants against Joe Milton at +750 and the Packers against Drake Maye at +850. Hitting all three turns $100 into $60,462, about 604-1. The Green Bay leg gets extra backing too, since the Packers are second in the league in takeaways.
Sean Green calls it a classic two-by-four weekend. If Malik Willis is throwing that many touchdowns, two of them can go to Greg Dulcich against a Lions defense near the top of the league in touchdowns allowed to tight ends. The Kalen Ballage touchdown pricing also looks too low, because the game script points to carries inside the 10 against a Raiders team on a streak of giving up 30 points. Kalen Ballage two touchdowns and Greg Dulcich two touchdowns parlay to 712-1, and the singles get played too at around 15-1. Catch the Prop Cast tomorrow at 11 AM Eastern, then the guys live on VSIN at 7 Pacific before they head to the Holy War in Utah.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:45 Sheetz MTO & Rosenberg Filling In
6:50 KC Concepcion Under 46 and a Half Receiving Yards
7:41 Greg Dulcich Receptions & Yards
10:32 Drake Maye Longest Completion Under
12:25 Kyle Pitts Over Receiving Yards
13:03 Quinton Johnston 40 Plus Receiving Yards
14:49 Jonathan Taylor Two Touchdowns
16:05 George Pickens Under Four and a Half Receptions
20:02 Bo Nix Over 210 Passing Yards
21:10 Chuba 70 Rushing Yards
21:53 Chuba Hubbard Over Three and a Half Receptions
23:36 Darnell Mooney 20 Plus Receiving Yards
27:39 Bazooka Joe Quarterback Number
30:00 Jadarian Price Rushing Yards
33:53 Tre Tucker Receptions Ladder
36:42 Malik Willis Passing Touchdowns Ladder
38:13 Savion Williams Receiving Yards Ladder
41:49 Jonathan Taylor, Jonah Coleman & Tre Tucker
43:08 Defenses Touchdowns Round Robin: Saints, Giants & Packers
44:38 Kalen Ballage & Greg Dulcich Two Touchdowns
45:51 Next Prop Cast & Tomorrow Night on VSIN
47:59 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
