Just two races remain in the NASCAR season for 2026. But don’t worry, we’re only a little over 100 days away from the 2027 Daytona 500! It’s been a thrilling Chase for the Championship at NASCAR’s top level, but a champion could be crowned after this weekend’s race at Martinsville. Let’s dive in and look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway.
Kyle Larson had a clutch performance at Talladega last week, going from 11th to first in the final lap and claiming the win. His master class, along with other Chase competitors’ bad luck, leaves Larson 73 points ahead of Denny Hamlin. With only 76 points available in each race, Larson could lock up the title with a good day at Martinsville. But we’ve seen plenty of times this season where a dominant day getting stage points and a win can swing the point standings wildly. This will make Martinsville an exciting one.
Odds to Win the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway
Denny Hamlin +430
Ryan Blaney +450
Kyle Larson +750
Joey Logano +800
Christopher Bell +900
Chase Briscoe +1000
William Byron +1200
Chase Elliott +1400
Ty Gibbs +1500
Josh Berry +1800
Bubba Wallace +2000
Tyler Reddick +2500
Austin Cindric +3500
Ross Chastain +4000
Carson Hocevar +4000
Ryan Preece +5000
Brad Keselowski +6500
Chris Buescher +6500
Shane Van Gisbergen +8000
Alex Bowman +10000
Daniel Suarez +10000
Austin Dillon +15000
Connor Zilisch +20000
Michael McDowell +25000
Todd Gilliland +25000
Erik Jones +25000
Riley Herbst +30000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +30000
Zane Smith +30000
AJ Allmendinger +35000
Austin Hill +40000
John Hunter Nemechek +40000
Josh Bilicki +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Noah Gragson +50000
Cody Ware +50000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway
Kyle Larson Top 5 (+135)
The best thing Kyle Larson can do this week for his title hopes is just have a good day. Lucky for Larson, having a good day is what he’s used to at Martinsville. Larson has the best average finish of all drivers over the last seven races here, checking in at 4.4, just under what we need at five. A ninth in the spring was an outlier for a team that struggled early in the year to find their footing. They’ve certainly found their footing in the Chase now.
Prior to the ninth-place finish, Larson had seven straight top-six finishes, six of those being top fives. In the eight Chase races thus far, Larson has seven finishes inside the top six, again with six of them being in the top five. He’s hot right now, and amazing at this track. All we need is a top five to cash this one.
Ty Gibbs Top 10 (-110)
We lulled them back to sleep on this one. Ty Gibbs ’ top-10s were feeding families earlier this season. Gibbs’ Chase hasn’t gone as we’d hoped. But he’s been strong on short tracks this season. Here at Martinsville, he finished fourth back in the spring. Last year he had finishes of 12th and 13th, before he blossomed into the 2026 version of Ty Gibbs.
At short tracks this season, he finished 10th at Phoenix two weeks ago. Fifth at Bristol fall, after picking up his first career win at the Bristol spring race. Sixth at New Hampshire and fourth at North Wilkesboro sandwiched his second career win at Iowa Speedway. Gibbs is a short track guy and will show up again this week.
Joey Logano to Win (+800)
The outright market this week is tough. A lot of guys are jammed at the bottom of the odds who are all very capable of winning. I’ll slide just past the top favorites and go with Joey Logano. He’d need a Hail Mary at this point (which means we better not count him out!) to win the championship. But it’s still late season for Joey Logano at a short track. I’ll take those odds.
Logano has a 6.0 average finish over the last seven races here, and has never finished worse than 10th in the NextGen era. He had a ton of speed at Phoenix, was on the winning strategy at Iowa before a late pit stop issue. Won Richmond and absolutely dominated North Wilkesboro. He won at Bristol, and ran top three at Gateway. I’ll take Logano to get to victory lane Sunday.
Fueled by WIN THE RACE‘s Professional NASCAR Strategy Platform
More Racing Content
Be sure to tune in to the NASCAR GAMBLING PODCAST for more bets for the NASCAR Cup, O’Reilly, and Truck Series, along with F1 and IndyCar bets, Underdog picks, DFS, and more! Join the Discord here.
