NFL Prop Bets Week 6 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) are joined by CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) from Bottom Line Bombs for NFL prop bets Week 6, starting with Jalen Hurts and his blood clot. Ryan Kramer finally gives out his quarterback rushing prop: Drake Maye over 26.5 rushing yards.
Jalen Hurts, Tanner McKee And A Line That Barely Moved
The week started with bad news out of Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts is dealing with a blood clot and will miss Sunday, so Tanner McKee gets the start against Carolina. Sean Green explained that Hurts has the superficial kind, which can clear up in a couple of weeks if it stays that way. If it becomes more serious, it means blood thinners and probably the end of his season. Nobody on the panel bought the internet theory that this is a soft benching.
Ryan Kramer went straight to the number. With Hurts, this game sat around Carolina minus one, maybe minus one and a half, and it has moved to three and a half. That is roughly two and a half points for the only part of the Eagles offense that has worked, his ad-libbing, and Kramer called it light. Sean pointed out that the move went through the key number of three, which matters. He also loves fading Bryce Young as a three-and-a-half-point road favorite, because he thinks this game gets won by the Eagles defense and the team rallies around missing Jalen. McKee looked rough in his last game with the Commanders. But Sean still called him a capable backup who is not horrible.
Revenge Spots Lead The NFL Prop Bets Week 6 Card
Kramer opened with Jameis Winston against his old team. The Saints staff kept him shackled, and now the Giants have figured out two weeks in a row that the offense should run through Isaiah Likely and Malik Nabers instead of the run game. So the play is Winston over one and a half passing touchdowns at plus 122. Kramer laddered it too, with two and a half at plus 525 and a four-touchdown game at 18 to 1. CJ padded the case with a stat that fits Jameis perfectly. The Saints are 29th in vertical yards per attempt allowed and 24th against tight ends, which also points to another big day for Likely.
Sean stayed in that game and went to the other side with Devaughn Vele over 43 and a half receiving yards. Nobody on the Saints piled up yards last week, but Sean thinks New Orleans moves the ball against a Giants secondary he is not sold on. Then CJ found the defense tied with the Saints at 29th in vertical passing yards allowed, the Buffalo Bills, who just gave up 383 yards and three touchdowns to Matthew Stafford. His play is Kirk Cousins over his passing yards. CJ quoted 247 and a half, Sean found 241 and a half, and CJ took the cheaper number because he would be shocked if Cousins threw for under 270. Sean co-signed it. Cousins has gone over four games in a row, and Buffalo has allowed the second-most passing yards.
Kramer’s second prop came out of a Daniel Jones revenge angle, since Daboll took his job, made him play safety and shipped him out of town. Jones has not thrown two touchdowns in a game all season, but Kramer is taking over one and a half passing touchdowns at plus 108 anyway. The piece he likes more is Keenan Allen over four and a half receptions at plus 132, with Allen coming off back-to-back nine-target games. Sean co-signed the Allen half only. The Titans are pretty decent at slowing down the run, so he expects a lot of quick, easy throws to Allen, and he said the reception ladder is live for sure.
Pittsburgh And Tampa Angles Plus A Rodgers Pick Ladder
CJ went to Pittsburgh for Germie Bernard over four and a half receptions at plus money. The rookie from Alabama has gotten into Aaron Rodgers‘ circle of trust fast, with Rodgers quizzing him on routes to make sure he was ready. When Roman Wilson got hurt, Bernard stepped up with eight catches for 82 yards. With so many Steelers banged up, CJ sees the volume landing on him. Sean stayed on the short stuff with Darnell Washington over two and a half receptions. His read is that Pittsburgh needs easy dump-offs, maybe even designed screens, to get the ball out against pressure. Those chuck-downs could also replace a running game he does not expect to work.
Kramer did the homework on Rodgers in Tampa, and it is ugly. Rodgers is two and three there all time, he has called the field lumpy, and he has blamed it for injuries. In the only game there without an interception, he hurt his calf. The other games went one, two, three and three picks, including two games with a pick-six. So Kramer is on the interception ladder, with one interception at plus 119 and two at plus 550. He wanted the three-pick rung as well. But that market was not established yet, so he is holding off on it for now.
CJ tied another play to the Bills defense he already likes attacking. Tre Tucker draws Christian Benford, who CJ says has been torched every single week, and Tucker’s yardage number sits around 39 and a half to 40. CJ thinks that is easy to clear and called Tucker exactly the kind of guy to ladder, with a 100-yard game priced at plus 1420. Then Sean broke the under seal with Woody Marks under 47 and a half rushing yards. The Jaguars have allowed only 210 rushing yards to running backs all season, and the Texans are horrible at running the ball to begin with. Sean doubts Marks gets the 16 or 17 carries he probably needs to go over.
Kramer’s next revenge spot was Kenny Gainwell, last year’s Steelers team MVP, now with Tampa Bay and facing his old team. The menu was 12 and a half receiving yards at minus 113, a 10-plus-yard reception at plus 115 and three-plus receptions at plus 105. He crossed off the receptions immediately and took over 12 and a half receiving yards, because he sees two or three catches with the Bucs working more out of the shotgun. Sean added that the Steelers linebackers defend rushing quarterbacks fine but struggle with receiving backs. CJ has been burned by too many Gainwell ladders this year. Still, he agreed this is the week to do it.
Green Bay On The Ground And The Drake Maye Rushing Call
CJ went low-trust and low-number with MarShawn Lloyd over 37 and a half rushing yards. Dallas gives up 4.6 yards a carry and 140 yards a game to running backs, Kaleb Johnson had an ankle setback, and Lloyd looked good last week with a couple of truck sticks. CJ thinks this should be the highest volume Lloyd sees all year. Sean stayed in that game with the boldest number on the board. Jordan Love has negative two rushing yards on the season, and Sean is still playing him over five and a half rush yards. The Cowboys lead the league in rush yards allowed to quarterbacks. So one scramble for a first down gets it home, even with a couple of kneel-downs.
CJ’s fifth prop rode with Luke’s survivor pick, the Los Angeles Rams. Tyler Higbee‘s total is 34 and a half receiving yards, and with the other tight ends banged up he has been averaging six receptions and 70 yards a game the last couple of weeks. Arizona has been horrible against the tight end, so CJ called the number very easily achievable. Then came the moment the whole open teased. Kramer finally gave out his quarterback rushing prop, Drake Maye over 26 and a half rushing yards. He knows Maye did not run for much against Aaron Glenn‘s defense in two games last year. But he watched Deshaun Watson get loose and sees Maye doing the exact same thing.
The Underdog Entry And Three Yardage Ladders
The Underdog pick’em starts with Derrick Henry higher than 89 and a half rushing yards against a Browns defense that has not been good against running backs. CJ added Dalton Kincaid higher than 49 and a half receiving yards in the Bills-Raiders game, since Josh Allen said out loud they have to get him involved early and the Raiders allow 23 fantasy points a game to tight ends. Kramer also noted that Sunday is Kincaid’s birthday. Sean closed it with Braylon Allen over 69 and a half rushing yards against New England, even though Sean is on the Pats. The three-leg entry returns $650 on a $100 play.
CJ’s ladder is Kimani Vidal, because Omarion Hampton is just not a thing for the Chargers and Vidal is the hot hand. He had eight carries for 57 yards last week and five for 25 the week before, and Scott Matlock is back at fullback with the team’s top pass-block grade from Pro Football Focus. Vidal shakes tackles, which is what this bad offensive line needs. The bottom rung is 14 and a half yards at minus 110. From there it climbs to 25 yards at plus 225, 30 at plus 366, 40 at plus 820, 50 at plus 1520, 60 at 22 to 1 and 70 at 32 to 1. CJ says this one goes all the way to the top.
Kramer’s ladder is Malik Nabers against the Saints. Nabers has gone for 112 and 121 yards in his last two games and saw 20 targets just seven days ago. The rungs are 100 yards at plus 240, 110 at plus 350, 125 at plus 550 and 150 at 11 to 1. Kramer’s math is simple. Even if the targets regress to 14, 150 yards is not that crazy, and Nabers was a dry field away from 175 yards in his last game. CJ thinks Nabers is only around 80 percent, which makes the production even wilder, and Isaiah Likely said his job is keeping Nabers out of double teams.
Sean’s ladder is Jahan Dotson against the Bears secondary. Dotson has back-to-back 54-yard games and still has a receiving line of just 23 and a half, so the over is a smash before you climb at all. The ladder starts at 40 yards for plus 230, then runs 60 at plus 610, 70 at plus 990 and 80 at plus 1520. Repeat the last two weeks and you are cashing the plus 380 rung. Penix likes throwing to him, and Dotson has three career games of 90 or more yards. All he needs is a couple of deep shots, and Kramer added the obvious caveat that Penix has to play well.
Degen Plays To Close: Henry, Bijan And A 270-1 Swing
Kramer kept his degen play simple with premium ladders on names everyone knows. Derrick Henry to hit 150 rushing yards is priced around 7 to 1, and Bijan Robinson is about the same. So he paired them, added two touchdowns for each back, and got 167 to 1. The touchdown legs are close to free, so the yards are what make this pop. CJ answered with three tight ends to score anytime: Higbee at plus 260, Brenton Strange at plus 340 against a Houston defense that is vulnerable to the position, and Pat Freiermuth at plus 320. Rodgers rewarded Freiermuth with two touchdowns after that reflection day, and the three-way pays plus 6552.
Sean went back to his guy Kirko Chains. Kirk Cousins threw for 365 in his last home game, and Sean is asking for 300 passing yards. He paired it with Jahan Dotson at 60 receiving yards, six more than last week, and Dallas Goedert to score at plus 295 because Sean thinks Tanner can find him against a Panthers team he says sucks. All three hitting pays plus 12828, almost 129 to 1. Then Kramer snuck in one last bonus with Jameis, Jordan Love, Cousins and Daniel Jones all throwing three touchdown passes. That one is 270 to 1, with Jones showing Daboll who’s daddy as the final leg.
Watch: Sean's Week 6 CFB Locks!
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:44 Jalen Hurts Blood Clot & Eagles Injuries
14:38 Jameis Winston Passing Touchdowns
16:59 Devaughn Vele Receiving Yards
18:30 Kirk Cousins Passing Yards
20:52 Daniel Jones Passing Touchdowns
21:26 Keenan Allen Reception Ladder
23:59 Germie Bernard Receptions
27:26 Darnell Washington Receptions
28:22 Aaron Rodgers Interceptions in Tampa
30:37 Tre Tucker Yards
31:48 Woody Marks Under Rush Yards
34:13 Kenny Gainwell Receiving Yards
37:09 MarShawn Lloyd Yards
38:53 Jordan Love Rush Yards
39:49 Tyler Higbee Yards
42:43 Underdog Pick ‘Em Entry
45:20 Kimani Vidal Yards Ladder
49:03 Malik Nabers Yards Ladder
53:05 Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards Ladder
54:56 Derrick Henry & Bijan Robinson Premium Ladders
56:42 Three Tight Ends Any Time Touchdown
58:01 Kirk Cousins, Jahan Dotson & Dallas Goedert
59:35 Bonus: Three Passing Touchdowns
1:00:26 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
