Just four races remain in NASCAR’s 2026 season. The Chase for the Championship is heating up as the series heads back out west to the Arizona desert. After three straight 1.5-mile tracks, it’s back to short track racing. The 1-mile circuit has hosted the championship race for a few years, but it has moved back in the schedule in this updated format. Let’s dive in and look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Freeway Insurance 500 at Phoenix Raceway.
Chase Briscoe, who earned his first career win here in 2022, won at Charlotte, marking back-to-back wins for the driver of the Joe Gibbs Racing #19 car. Unfortunately for him, Kyle Larson also had a great day and kept up his championship lead. Larson holds a 49-point advantage over Denny Hamlin heading into the weekend. Christopher Bell sits 51 points back, while Briscoe is now just -65 back. Penske teammates Ryan Blaney (-85) and Joey Logano (-92) round out the likely contenders that remain near the top of the board.
Odds to Win Freeway Insurance 500
Ryan Blaney +390
Christopher Bell +450
Denny Hamlin +700
Kyle Larson +750
Joey Logano +750
Chase Briscoe +800
Tyler Reddick +1400
William Byron +1500
Ty Gibbs +1700
Austin Cindric +2500
Bubba Wallace +2500
Chase Elliott +3000
Josh Berry +3000
Carson Hocevar +3500
Corey Heim +4000
Ross Chastain +5000
Chris Buescher +5500
Alex Bowman +6000
Brad Keselowski +6500
Ryan Preece +8000
Daniel Suarez +10000
Shane van Gisbergen +15000
Erik Jones +20000
Michael McDowell +25000
Austin Dillon +25000
Connor Zilisch +25000
Zane Smith +30000
AJ Allmendinger +30000
Austin Hill +35000
Todd Gilliland +35000
Noah Gragson +40000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +40000
Cole Custer +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Cody Ware +50000
John Hunter Nemechek +50000
Riley Herbst +50000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Freeway Insurance 500 at Phoenix Raceway
Kyle Larson Top Chevrolet (+150)
Rinse and repeat. We’ve played this for Larson the last two weeks, and it’s easily hit for us. In fact, Larson is on a six-race streak of being the top-finishing Chevrolet. It’s no surprise that’s exactly every race in the Chase thus far. Larson is on a generational run this Chase and just keeps turning in great finish after great finish. Add in that Chevy is weak around Larson as a manufacturer right now. Chase Elliott seems lost since his Michigan crash, and William Byron has run alright but can’t seem to get over the hump. Beyond that, it’s a different Chevy driver that’s next best each week.
This also buys insurance if, like last week, Larson finishes sixth and doesn’t cash a top five bet. But still ends up being the best Chevy on the day. Expect the Penske Fords and Gibbs Toyotas to be good this week yet again. If you aren’t convinced yet, Larson is outstanding here at Phoenix Raceway. He’s finished exactly third in three straight races at the track and top four in six of the last seven here.
Josh Berry Top 10 (+130)
Josh Berry loves this type of race track. Short-flat racing is where he cut his teeth and what has gotten him to this level. Berry ran well here in the spring but was involved in a crash that forced a bad finish. Prior to that, in his last two starts, Berry finished seventh and fourth place here. Team Penske runs extremely well at this track, and Berry runs a fourth Penske car essentially.
Josh has been on quite the run down the stretch of the season, a run that has arguably extended his Cup career, earning him a ride in the #42 for Legacy Motor Club next season. Berry has eight top-10 finishes in the last 11 races of the year, including top 10s at tracks comparable to Phoenix like Iowa, Richmond, New Hampshire, and the short track of Bristol.
Christopher Bell to Win (+450)
I couldn’t wait to bet Christopher Bell this week as soon as the odds dropped. The driver of the #20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has been on a mission lately. He gave it everything he had on the last lap last week, finishing second in the second-closest finish ever in the Cup Series at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Bell has been top six in four of ten six Chase races, and would have been at Las Vegas too if he hadn’t lost power steering.
Here at Phoenix, only Ryan Blaney rivals Christopher Bell. He’s won two of the last five races, and finished second here earlier this spring. In that spring race, he led 176 laps. He’s led north of 100 laps in three of the last four at the track. This is a Bell playground, and he’s been knocking on the door of another win. This is his week to ring the Bell.
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