Thursday Night Football Week 6 Prop Bets Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) bring on Adam Rosenberg from the PropCast for Week 6 Thursday Night Football prop bets on Seahawks at Broncos. It ends with Kramer pairing AJ Barner and Evan Engram for 50 yards and a touchdown each at 228 to 1.
Bills Overtime, Teaser Pain And Ross In The Booth
The Bills money line got home on Monday night, and Josh Allen finally won an overtime game after starting 0-7 in OT, a stat neither host believed when they first saw it. The Rams sit at 2-3 with a special teams unit that just cut its kicker. NFL Week 5 was also a bloodbath for teasers. Sean Green went 2-4 on his best bet teaser legs, which earned a fair jab from Ryan Kramer about the self-reported greatest gambling show in the world handing out nothing but teaser round robins. Their buddy Ross had the Chargers +3.5 and sweated it out live from the broadcast booth. He was not happy when the Chargers went for it on fourth and six on their own side of the field.
Then Adam Rosenberg (@HeyRosenberg) from the PropCast joins the show on a heater. The PropCast opened the year cashing a 45-1 No Sack, and Monday they hit a Keon Coleman prop plus a parlay that got a lot dicier than it should have. The last leg was Josh Allen under his passing yards. Rosenberg figured Allen wasn’t throwing for 100 yards in overtime, and Allen immediately hit Shakir on a 70-yard shot, so the PropCast had to sweat the rest of the game. Kramer pointed out the irony, because the only way to lose that leg was the overtime rule change that was made for Buffalo in the first place.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bets For Seahawks At Broncos
Seahawks at Broncos is the matchup, with Denver a three-point home dog and the total already down from 43 to 40. Rosenberg opens with a punt, because of course the PropCast does: Broncos to punt on their first drive at -115. Denver has scored zero points on its first drives this season. Seattle hasn’t given up any first-drive points either, and it has forced the opponent to punt in four of five. Some books hang this at -140, so -115 is the number to grab. Sean likes the angle too. He looked at the Broncos first half team total of 9.5 and passed on the over, since this offense can look rough early.
Kramer’s first prop is Sam Darnold over 4.5 rushing yards at -114, and he isn’t sure what he’s missing. Darnold has gone for five, six and five over his last three games, and he smashed up his hip on the first drive of the opener, which explains the one dud. Denver is also one of the quick pressure teams, so one scramble might be all it takes. Sean is on the same bet. Trevor Lawrence is the only quarterback who didn’t go over his rushing number against this Broncos defense, and even Matthew Stafford ran for 13 yards. Rosenberg likes the longest rush at 5.5 as well, because he thinks Darnold scoots in this game.
A chat question about JSN anytime touchdown at plus money gets a stay-away. JSN wore an ankle wrap in the second half of his last game, and Rosenberg’s read is that he’s not 100% and would have been limited if Seattle had practiced. That injury feeds Rosenberg’s next play, Bo Nix under 204 passing yards. Seattle has the best pass defense in the league at limiting explosive yards, and the log backs it up: Purdy 189, Herbert 189, Mariota 183, Maye 178 and Brissett 95. The Seahawks also rank second in havoc rate. Kramer pushed back a little, since Nix will happily dink and dunk, which is what Seattle tends to allow. But with points at a premium and Nix throwing a super low aDOT, the under at 204 is the side.
Volume For The Backs And Tight Ends
If Seattle’s backfield belongs to Emanuel Wilson again, Kramer wants his over 17.5 carries. His thinking is that Seattle will see an edge in the run game against this Broncos defense and just load up, which tends to happen on a Thursday night anyway. The Seattle receivers are banged up, too, and the fumble is only a minor worry. Sean goes to the other back, George Holani over 1.5 receptions. Denver allows the fifth most receptions to running backs, and Holani is coming off a four-target, four-catch game that made him second on the team in targets. He also has the third-down role locked up with Price out, so 1.5 catches feels really low.
Rosenberg calls this the AJ Barner game the guys were promised. Barner’s receiving line sits at 20, and Denver allowed 62 receiving yards to tight ends, 25th in the league, with Travis Kelce and George Kittle each getting to 70. Surtain is out and Hufanga is in a walking boot, so the back end is thin. Rosenberg takes the over plus the Barner touchdown at +390, while Sean plays the alt at 40 yards for +310. Kramer goes to the other side with Evan Engram over 21.5 receiving yards, as long as the drops don’t bite him. Seattle has let four of five tight ends clear that number, and Engram went four for 55 last game and four for 43 against the Chiefs.
The Underdog Entry: Darnold And RJ Harvey
The Underdog build turned into a live troubleshooting session. Rosenberg brought RJ Harvey receiving, a last cut from his card, because Seattle’s high havoc rate and quick pressure leave yards on the table for running backs catching passes. The guys tried to pair it with a Bo Nix lower 30.5 longest completion and then with Harvey higher 3.5 receptions, and the app kept refusing to combine the legs. So they trimmed it to two picks: Sam Darnold higher 4.5 rush yards and RJ Harvey higher 24.5 receiving yards. A $100 entry returns $364 with promo code SGN, and Kramer said he got almost 5X on his own entry by using the Move the Chains bonus.
First Touchdown Tickets And Degen Longshots
Kramer took Rosenberg’s tight end angle and applied it to both teams. His first touchdown card has AJ Barner at 16-1, Evan Engram at 26-1, Eric Saubert around 70-1 and Nate Adkins around 75-1, and he noted you can do better on Engram off-market. Sean is on Adkins, Barner and Saubert as well, then adds Bo Nix at almost 20-1, because if Nix smells the end zone at home he’s going in. Rosenberg plays both quarterbacks, Darnold at 40-1 and Nix at 20-1, and adds Cooper Kupp at 20-1. With JSN banged up, Seattle has been leaning on Kupp in short yardage, and he already has a red zone target without a touchdown to show for it.
Then come the Degen props. Rosenberg builds on his own handicap with AJ Barner 70 receiving yards and two touchdowns at 160-1, since Barner had 69 against the Commanders and Denver has already given up 70 to two tight ends. Sean keeps it simple with Bo Nix two touchdowns at 60-1, betting on Nix in prime time on a short week against a gassed Seattle defense, with a QB sneak or two doing the work. Kramer pairs the tight ends, Barner 50 yards and a touchdown plus Engram 50 yards and a touchdown, for 228-1. He calls that a reasonable outcome in the simulation, and Rosenberg is already promising to call his guy so everyone gets a piece.
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Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:44 Monday Night Football Bloodbath & Tony Romo
6:33 Rosenberg From the PropCast
7:43 Broncos First Drive Punt
9:42 Sam Darnold Rushing Yards
12:17 JSN Anytime Touchdown
13:40 Bo Nix Under Passing Yards
16:21 Emanuel Wilson Over Carries
17:23 George Holani Over Receptions
18:21 AJ Barner Receiving Yards & Touchdown
23:18 Underdog Entry: RJ Harvey & Sam Darnold
28:46 First Touchdown Tight Ends & Cooper Kupp
33:48 AJ Barner, Bo Nix & Evan Engram Touchdown Props
35:53 Coming Up on the Prop Cast
38:45 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
