The NFL season is heading into Week 5, and everything we thought in the preseason is already meaningless. The Eagles are hurt. The Chargers are bad. Somehow, the Falcons look unbeatable, and the Vikings are undefeated. NFL stands for ‘Not For Long,’ and that’s about how long most preseason predictions have lasted. Let’s go through this week’s NFL betting analysis and see what the latest numbers have to say.
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How should I bet on the NFL this weekend? Week 5 Analytics & Trends
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals host the Detroit Lions in Phoenix this weekend. The Cardinals are off a road loss to the Giants, while the Lions looked rough in a road loss to the Panthers. The Cardinals aren’t a good team, but they can move the ball on offense, and their defense can get a stop. Detroit has an explosive offense, but cannot stop anyone on defense. This Lions pass defense may end up being historically bad.
The Lions have allowed an average of more than 300 passing yards per game. They’ve also let teams score 11 touchdowns through the air and allowed 20 explosive completions. This is a game that could get Jacoby Brissett another decade with a roster spot.
The passing yards total for Jacoby Brissett is too high, but books haven’t adjusted his completion numbers as much. Brissett is averaging just over 25 completions per game. This game script practically writes itself. Brissett dinks and dunks his way to more than 24 completions, and the Cardinals rack up more than 24.5 points.
The Lions have been lit up by just about every quarterback they’ve faced, and Brissett is compiling his way to a crazy completion day.
Best Bets: Arizona Team Total Over 24.5 Points, Brissett over 24.5 Completions
Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears head to Green Bay for a rivalry game with the Packers. This is the age-old story of two teams heading in different directions. The Packers have looked rough on offense with a banged-up offensive line and a mediocre set of skill position players. Chicago has rallied behind their coach and won back-to-back games with backup quarterbacks. Ben Johnson and the Bears go out of their way to mess with the Packers and Matt LaFleur. They come into this game with a chance to turn up the heat on LaFleur’s hot seat and win at Lambeau Field.
The Bears have one of the most efficient ground attacks in the league. Chicago averages 4.9 yards per carry when they hand the ball off. The Packers have allowed 4.2 yards per carry to opponents this year. Green Bay also just lost a starting linebacker for the season. The Bears should ground and pound the Packers into another loss, and running back Kyle Monangai should get fed. Monangai just had 30 carries in a game, and his total is only 11.5 carries. He’s been under in three out of four games, but his usage rate should stay above the number more often than not moving forward.
This is a great spot for both the Chicago Bears and their effective ground game.
Chicago -2.5, Kyle Monangai Over 11.5 carries.
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles were really banged up all over their offense. This week? Offensive Tackle Lane Johnson retired, and they traded interior lineman Cam Jurgens. What’s even more concerning is that the Eagles’ defense has struggled to stop opponents through the air. The Eagles are 22nd in pass defense and are allowing 222.0 passing yards per game and a 62.6% opponent completion rate. They’ve also allowed 23.3 points per game to opponents. This week? The Eagles head to London for a matchup with the Jaguars.
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has quietly been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league. Advanced metrics absolutely love Lawrence this year. So far, Lawrence has an 8.5 intended air yards/attempt, a 7.3 completed air yards/completion, an 80.8% on-target rate, and only a 1.0% bad-throw rate. He’s also thrown at least two touchdown passes in two out of four starts this year. The Eagles should struggle, and Lawrence should continue to stay sharp against a defense that has holes in it.
Best Bet: Jacksonville Team Total Over 24.5, Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers are a mess. Their defense doesn’t look the same without Jesse Minter, and the Broncos are coming to town this weekend. The Broncos need to get right after a loss to San Francisco, and they’re going to one of the easier environments in the entire league to play in. The Broncos should roll a Chargers team that’s still searching for its identity on both sides of the ball.
Denver has one of the most efficient ground games in the league. The Broncos are eighth in the league in rush EPA per play, while the Chargers defense is 26th in rush EPA/per play against. JK Dobbins’ rushing yards total is bumped up to over 50.5 yards, but RJ Harvey has a total at 18.5, and he just had 25 yards on seven carries. Harvey’s usage rate is trending upwards, and he should pick up some additional volume in this game.
Best Bet: Denver -3.5, RJ Harvey Over 18.5 Rushing Yards
The Sports Gambling Podcast
For more analysis of every NFL game in the 2026-27 season, tune in to the Sports Gambling Podcast. Sean “Stackin’ The Money” Green and Ryan “Real Money” Kramer talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline NFL picks every week!
