Week 4 is drawing to a close, and it’s time to get started on NFL Week 5 betting action. There has been some massive movement from the initial line drop back in May. Now, with four weeks of games under our belts, injuries, surprises, and all the above. The books have shifted a few games heavily. Let’s dive into this NFL Week 5 line movement and what the betting market is telling us.
Last week we went a perfect 3-3 on our reads of the movement. The books swung on Indianapolis from dogs to favorites; we followed that movement with an easy cash. It was the same story for Arizona, but we assessed that situation and faded the line movement. Finally, the Patriots went from field goal dogs to touchdown dogs. We simply followed the “Close Your Eyes Special” rules and took a cash on New England, who ended up winning outright.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) to (-10)
Thursday Night Football in Dallas at Jerry World is where we’ll kick the week off. Back in May, as the books looked at this thrilling game between two good teams, with Baker Mayfield and Dak Prescott squaring off in primetime, the line was set at -3.5 in favor of the home team. Fast forward to Week 5, Tampa Bay has looked like hot garbage. On top of that, Baker Mayfield is out for an extended period of time with an injury. Tampa is now starting undrafted rookie free agent Jalon Daniels. Daniels played okay in his first start and kept the game close, but lost to a bad Packers team.
Now, on the road in primetime, on a short week, the question becomes: can Jalon Daniels keep this game within 10 points, and is he 6.5 points worse than Baker Mayfield? The easy answer is yes. And that’s not all on Daniels. Even with Mayfield, this Tampa team looked broken and lost. Dallas is a good team, and they’ll wallop the Bucs in primetime at home.
Pick: Follow the Movement – Cowboys -10
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) to (-4.5)
This game has crossed over from Jacksonville as underdogs back in May to favorites of more than a field goal as they host the Philadelphia Eagles at “home” in London at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Philadelphia has looked bad through the first four weeks. They hardly beat bad Commanders and Titans teams. They got blown out by the Chicago Bears, who brought a quarterback out of the crypt to start against them. Then they blew a lead to a beat-up Rams team last week.
Now, they have to travel across the pond as a team that’s extremely beat up themselves. Will Saquon Barkley play? Will DeVonta Smith play? Lane Johnson missed last week; Dallas Goedert has been out. Among other issues. Jacksonville, on the other hand, looks like a well-oiled machine at this point. For whatever reason, I’m an Eagles sympathizer, and generally try to find the good in them. I’ve been looking, and it isn’t there. This Jaguars team routinely makes this trip, and they are firing on all cylinders. We’ll follow the movement here as well and take the better team in the better position.
Pick: Follow the Movement – Jaguars (-4.5)
Denver Broncos (+2.5) to (-3.5)
Denver heads to sunny Los Angeles for an AFC West matchup on Sunday afternoon. They’ll take on the Los Angeles Chargers, who are currently featured as a team on your milk carton as missing. They popped in the backdoor in Week 4 to push on the spread, but this team has started 0-4 and looked terrible in every single week. Losses to the Cardinals and Raiders were just embarrassing. They did show up against the Buffalo Bills for three quarters, but that was mostly due to the Bills’ self-inflicted mistakes. In the end, Buffalo came back and took them down.
This is a divisional matchup, and it’s swung across zero, and then past three. That’s scary on the surface with no major injuries. The big question to answer here is, are the Chargers THAT much worse than we thought back in May? The answer once again is yes. This team has been terrible, and there is no hope in sight. Their schedule is brutal, and things just aren’t working. Denver, for the most part, has looked good against tough opponents this season. At this point in the schedule, the books are moving lines appropriately based on what we’ve seen in 2026 through four weeks. Let’s make it a clean sweep and ride the movement in all three games.
Pick: Follow the Movement – Broncos -3.5
