Pittsburgh and Cleveland get a divisional game on a Thursday night, a format the guys could happily do without, and both of them landed on the Steelers. Kickoff is Thursday, October 1 at 8:15 PM ET in Cleveland, OH. The Steelers were 3-point favorites with a total of 38.5 when the guys taped the NFL Picks Week 4 episode on September 30.
Steelers vs Browns Odds
When the guys taped on September 30, the Steelers were 3-point road favorites over the Browns and the total sat at 38.5. They called that a very AFC North total.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): Steelers -3
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): Steelers -3
Sean built his case at the line of scrimmage. By his count the Browns’ offensive line gave up 27 pressures to the Panthers, and the guys expected Cleveland to be without its center and a guard on the short week. Now that line gets a Steelers front seven Sean thinks is carrying the whole defense, with T.J. Watt in line for a big night. Cleveland also can’t get a running game going, and in Sean’s view nobody beats Pittsburgh without establishing the run. His trends backed it up: road favorites laying three or fewer are 8-2 against the spread over the last five years, the Browns are 10-21 ATS after a win, and neither the Browns nor Deshaun Watson has won three straight since 2023.
He read off the other side too. Sean noted the Browns are 11-1 at home in Thursday primetime games, 4-0 against Pittsburgh, and that the Steelers haven’t won in Cleveland since October 31, 2021. Aaron Rodgers has a Thursday record of his own, though: 13-6 straight up and 13-5-1 against the spread, per Sean.
Ryan came in leaning Cleveland. The Browns keep beating the Steelers with bad quarterbacks, and he’d have called it an automatic spot if they weren’t coming off a win. Their path, as he sees it, is Watson dinking and dunking around the pressure. Two things moved him. Cleveland has a first-time head coach on a Thursday night, an angle Sean admitted he’d forgotten, adding that rookie head coaches have a rough history on Thursdays early in the season. And Ryan expects the Steelers’ pressure to come right up the middle, so he doesn’t want his chips on good Deshaun Watson when bad Deshaun Watson shows up. He’s seen the analytics argument that Rodgers struggles against the way Cleveland plays defense, and he thinks Rodgers might have a game anyway.
The last thing Ryan checked was the betting splits. By his read the public is on the Browns and the sharper money is on the Steelers. Sean was surprised anyone was backing Cleveland, and Ryan’s answer was simple enough: they just won in this situation, and that’s how the public thinks. That, he said, is why they’re both on the Steelers.
Hear the full breakdown on the NFL Picks Week 4 episode, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Watch every game on YouTube, and download the SGPN app at sg.pn/links. See all our NFL Picks.
