NFL Picks Week 4 Recap
Sean Green and Ryan Kramer pick every game against the spread in this NFL picks Week 4 episode, starting with Steelers vs. Browns on Thursday night. They split on Colts vs. Commanders in London and both close their eyes and take the Patriots plus 6.5 in Buffalo.
Joey Porter Jr. Heads To Dallas
Week 4 has no byes, a full slate and a pair of Close Your Eyes specials, and the guys are still picking every game against the spread like they have since 2011. Before any of that, there was breaking news to chew on. The Steelers traded Joey Porter Jr. to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2028 second-round pick and a sixth-rounder from next year. Kramer doubts he fixes that Cowboys defense.
Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) guessed the Chiefs when Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) made him name the team, and neither host loved the fit once the real answer landed. Porter has been sitting out during a contract stall, and his injury report listed hip and back issues, so his conditioning is a real question. Kramer pointed to Sauce Gardner’s rough season after his trade as the warning sign, because guys who miss time try to ramp up quickly and it causes problems. Dallas didn’t give up much with a pick two years out. But the verdict was blunt: the Cowboys defense is trash, the offense keeps getting wasted, and Porter isn’t the fix. The guys also took a quick lap on last week’s Close Your Eyes special, the Falcons, which cashed to move the bit to 1-0.
Thursday Night Belongs To The Steelers
Pittsburgh lays three in Cleveland with a 38.5 total, and the Browns have a mess in the middle of their offensive line, with their center and a guard both likely out on the short week. Sean ran the trends on both sides. The Browns are 11-1 in Thursday prime-time home games, including 4-0 against the Steelers. Aaron Rodgers, though, is 13-6 straight up on Thursdays. Road favorites laying three or less have gone 8-2 ATS over the last five years, and Cleveland is now 10-21 ATS following a victory. Then there’s the matchup that settles it for Sean. A Browns line that gave up 27 pressures to Carolina now sees T.J. Watt and a Pittsburgh front seven that is carrying this defense.
Kramer’s first thought was Cleveland, and he talked himself out of it. Monken is a first-time NFL head coach on a Thursday night, and Sean called rookie coaches on Thursdays early in the year a great angle he’d missed in his notes. The pressure is also going to come straight up the middle at Deshaun Watson, which is the one place he can’t dink and dunk around. Kramer said this would have been an automatic Browns spot if they weren’t coming off a win. Instead the public is grabbing Cleveland with roughly 65% of the tickets, and Kramer reads the sharper side as Pittsburgh. It is still the Browns. Both hosts lay the three with the Steelers.
London Splits The Room, The Patriots Don’t
Sunday starts at 6:30 a.m. Pacific from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where the Colts lay 3.5 against Washington with a 47 total and Washington at +160 on the moneyline. The spread suggests Marcus Mariota starts, although Jayden Daniels was bouncing around practice in a bionic elbow brace and nobody has ruled him out. Sean takes Indy. Favorites in international games are 38-24-2 ATS. Mariota is 11-25-1 ATS after a win, and Sean thinks backup quarterbacks fall apart after that first game. Kramer goes the other way because Dan Quinn has this defense stopping the run, and the Colts aren’t very good if Jonathan Taylor can’t get going. Daniel Jones is also 0-2 in international games, so Kramer signed off with a pointed ‘good luck laying three and a half with Daniel Jones.’
Then comes the first Close Your Eyes special of the week. New England catches 6.5 in Buffalo with a 48.5 total after underperforming the spread by 21 points, and this Patriots team is unbettable, which is exactly why both hosts are on it. Teams that start 3-0 ATS have covered just 39% of the time in Week 4 over the last 10 years. Mike Vrabel is 28-14 ATS as an underdog of three points or more after a loss. Kramer added that the Bills haven’t covered this number at home against the Patriots since a Week 18 game in 2022. The injuries are ugly, with Barmore dealing with a shoulder and the offensive line in shambles. But the bets keep piling onto Buffalo, and the number still hasn’t moved to seven.
Bears, Texans And Jaguars In The Early Window
The Jets head to Soldier Field on a back-to-back road trip, and Chicago lays three with a 43 total and Bagent the likely starter. Kramer called it a Bagent number, not a Keenum number, and he likes Ben Johnson over Aaron Glenn by a mile when two former teammates know everything about each other. Breece Hall is out for New York. Geno is also outside on grass instead of turf, so both hosts take the Bears. Arizona is the other road favorite, laying two at the Giants with a 44.5 total. Sean won’t touch New York until Jameis completes a pass downfield, so he takes the Cardinals and predicts six Giants field goals in a 21-18 cover. Kramer argued the Giants side and expects Jameis to finally rip it.
Houston is the desperate home team against Dallas, and the guys are both laying the points with the Texans. C.J. Stroud is 1-11 ATS through the first three weeks, so the slow start is nothing new. Teams that start 0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS are 6-0-2 ATS in Week 4, and Sean expects Dalton Schultz props to be live against a Dallas secondary that struggles with tight ends. Jacksonville is the other strong opinion. The Jaguars catch 2.5 in Cincinnati with a 51 total, they’ve allowed only 36 points this season, and they’re second in defensive DVOA. Sean knows Joe Burrow is 20-10 ATS off a loss and takes the Jags anyway. Meanwhile Kramer goes further and says the wrong team is favored.
Green Bay lays 3.5 in Tampa with a 40 total, and neither host can lay it. The Packers are dead last at 48.7 rushing yards per game, and the second-worst team sits at 81. They also lead the league in penalty yards, a nugget from Alan in the chat. Tampa is on an 0-12 ATS run, the longest stretch in NFL history, and Sean says the Bucs are due. The real hook is the backup quarterback bump with Jalon Daniels, because backup quarterbacks are 6-0 straight up and ATS this year. Kramer expects an advantage on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and he says he’s taking Daniels to win the game outright.
Home Dogs And Gross Spots
The second Close Your Eyes special is Philadelphia, a three-point home dog against the Rams at +142 with a 43 total after underperforming the spread by 21 last week. Sean calls it the ultimate foxhole spot, a term coined by Moneyline Mac, and the travel case is brutal. The Rams opened in Australia, flew back to Los Angeles, lost at Denver, and now fly east for an early body clock game. Teams that lost at Denver and went back on the road the next week are 1-6-1 ATS over the last five seasons. Sean McVay is 1-6 all-time against the Eagles. The Eagles have also won outright the last six times they’ve been dogs, while the Rams are getting as much as 80% of the bets. Both hosts take the points.
Baltimore lays 11.5 against Tennessee with a 43.5 total, and Sean opened on the Ravens because the Titans are 10-27 ATS since firing Mike Vrabel. Kramer talked him off it. The Ravens are without their center and a guard, so a rookie guard who hasn’t played center competitively moves over to face Jeffrey Simmons, who just destroyed the interior of the Giants line. Lamar Jackson also missed Wednesday practice with his back, and if that acts up the number drops fast. Cam Ward was horrible last week, but Kramer figures he can’t be worse, and Sean sees a backdoor opening against a Ravens defense that hasn’t looked electric. So both hosts end up on Tennessee at +11.5.
Dolphins, Niners And Raiders In The Late Window
Miami catches 10 in Minnesota at +490 with a 39 total, and Sean is going back to the Dolphins one more time, swearing it’s the last. The Vikings are 3-0 without topping 246 net yards in any game. Kyler Murray has been a double-digit favorite only twice, and he lost outright as a 13-point favorite to the Lions in 2021. Kramer can’t believe he’s on the Dolphins and the Titans in the same week, but he’s there too. San Francisco is the cleaner call. The Niners lay 2.5 against Denver with a 48.5 total, and Kramer can’t figure out why sharps are running to the Broncos when Denver ranks 27th in DVOA against the run. Trent Williams got a limited practice in with a stinger, so both hosts lay it.
Kansas City lays 4.5 in Las Vegas with a 48 total, the shortest number Patrick Mahomes has ever been favored by against the Raiders. Kramer expects a real home crowd after the 3-0 start, plus a Raiders defense that keeps creating pressure up front, and Josh Simmons is out for the Chiefs with a bulging disc. Sean adds that the Chiefs are 0-9 ATS as a road favorite after a double-digit win. Both hosts take the Raiders, and Kramer smells a field goal game under that total. The Chargers at Seattle is where they finally split. Sean grabs the seven because Herbert is 7-1 ATS as a dog of six or more, and he’s calling a 28-17 cover with a garbage touchdown late. Kramer stays away, since that Seattle front against the Chargers line is a problem.
Prime Time Splits On Sunday And Monday Night
Detroit lays 3.5 at Carolina on Sunday night with a 51 total and rain probable. Sean takes the Panthers, who are on a 10-0 ATS run off a loss, because he can’t trust this Lions defense as a road favorite. He also likes Darren Waller in the touchdown markets, and Kramer found him at +310 anytime. Kramer lays it with Detroit anyway. Dan Campbell is 13-4 as a road favorite, and the Panthers offensive line is banged up. Jalen Coker trending toward a game-time decision also means fewer targets in a game that could turn into a shootout. Kramer’s parting shot was ‘good luck with Bryce,’ and Sean simply thanked him.
Monday night is the biggest argument of the week. New Orleans lays 2.5 against Atlanta at -140 on the 20-year anniversary of the Katrina game, and Sean is smashing the Saints because that building is going to be bonkers. He also loves fading Kevin Stefanski off a win, a 15-26 ATS spot, and notes Michael Penix has won back-to-back games only once as a starter. Kramer calls Atlanta a potential lock. The Saints have covered just 39 of 89 home games since 2016, and they’re 32nd in rush defense DVOA with Bijan coming to town in prime time. So if the false starts start piling up for the Falcons, Sean wants it known he tried to warn him.
The NFL Picks Week 4 Lock, Dog And Tease
Sean finally locks up a Close Your Eyes special this week. His locks are the Patriots +6.5, the Panthers +3.5 and the Bears -3, and his moneyline dog is the Eagles at +142 in the foxhole spot. His teaser takes the Raiders up to 10.5, the Jaguars up to 8.5 and the Chargers up to 13. Kramer locks the Jaguars first, calling it a wrong-team-favored situation, then adds the Texans and the Niners. He considered the Raiders for his dog but took the Bucs at +155 behind the backup quarterback bump. His teaser runs the Raiders to +10.5, the Seahawks down to 1 and the Falcons up to 8.5.
The contest card is the one they share. For the Circa Million, the guys build the whole thing around underdogs, with Houston as the only favorite on the board. The four dogs are the Panthers +3.5, the Jaguars +2.5, the Eagles +3 and the Patriots +6.5, which Sean called a sharp card. They’re already out of the running for the first-quarter prizes, and Sean figures that is exactly when a 5-0 week shows up. They also plan to play a tale of the tape paper-ticket version of the card, so it can get measured with the Muletown Mafia tape measure on the VSiN show this weekend.
Watch: Saquon Barkley Fantasy Owners Are CLENCHING 😬
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:46 Joey Porter Jr. Traded to the Cowboys
14:47 Steelers vs. Browns Picks
23:18 Colts vs. Washington Picks
34:01 Patriots vs. Bills Picks
39:52 Jets vs. Bears Picks
45:03 Cardinals vs. Giants Picks
52:27 Cowboys vs. Texans Picks
57:13 Jaguars vs. Bengals Picks
1:04:06 Green Bay vs. Tampa Picks
1:13:12 Rams vs. Eagles Picks
1:21:46 Titans vs. Ravens Picks
1:30:12 Pick’em: Dalton Schultz & Kalif Raymond
1:32:42 Dolphins vs. Vikings Picks
1:38:39 Broncos vs. Niners Picks
1:44:30 Chiefs vs. Raiders Picks
1:49:11 Chargers vs. Seahawks Picks
1:52:31 Lions vs. Panthers Picks
1:57:33 Falcons vs. Saints Picks
2:03:46 Lock, Dog and Tease
2:11:28 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
