The NASCAR season is quickly winding down, but the Chase for the Championship is just heating up! Kyle Larson took a strong lead after a max points day at Kansas. With back-to-back 1.5-mile tracks, can he extend that lead? Or does someone else take advantage and cut into it? Let’s take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Larson maxed out with a 76-point day at Kansas by sweeping both stages, winning the race, and earning the Xfinity Fastest Lap point. He extended his Chase lead from -1 entering Kansas to -26 over Denny Hamlin. Christoper Bell is -50 back, while Joey Logano is -67 back. Ryan Blaney rounds out the top five -91 points behind Larson. Las Vegas is a sister track to Kansas Speedway. They are laid out the same way and share a lot of the same qualities. A lot of what we saw last week we can expect to see again this week.
Odds to Win South Point 400
Denny Hamlin +350
Kyle Larson +410
Christopher Bell +650
Tyler Reddick +750
Chase Briscoe +800
Ty Gibbs +1100
William Byron +1200
Ryan Blaney +1600
Bubba Wallace +1900
Chase Elliott +1900
Joey Logano +1900
Carson Hocevar +2200
Austin Cindric +3500
Chris Buescher +5000
Josh Berry +6000
Daniel Suarez +6000
Ross Chastain +6000
Alex Bowman +6000
Ryan Preece +6000
Brad Keselowski +7500
Zane Smith +12500
Shane Van Gisbergen +15000
Erik Jones +15000
Riley Herbst +17500
Austin Dillon +20000
Michael McDowell +20000
Connor Zilisch +20000
AJ Allmendinger +25000
Austin Hill +25000
John Hunter Nemechek +30000
Noah Gragson +30000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +40000
Todd Gilliland +40000
Cody Ware +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Cole Custer +50000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Kyle Larson Top Finishing Chevrolet (-125)
This one is pretty simple for me. One of the most talented race car drivers in the world is catching fire at the right time, coming to a track he’s light out at, and running a kick ass paint scheme? Check, check, check. As far as the market goes, top Chevy projects us from a lot of things. If Denny Hamlin, Christoper Bell, Chase Briscoe, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, and name other Toyotas or Fords are strong, we can still hit this.
William Byron is the main Chevy driver who scares me here. He’s been solid on the 1.5-mile tracks, and strong here at Las Vegas. Outside of Byron, Elliott is the next driver to worry about, he’s usually solid but not dominant. I expect Larson to dominate this race once again and easily be the top-finishing Chevrolet in the race.
Chase Briscoe Top 5 (+150)
Chase Briscoe has proven he’s someone who will compete at these 1.5-mile tracks. Last week at Kansas, he was the only driver who could hold a flame to Kyle Larson and just didn’t quite have enough for him. The previous 1.5-mile race at Chicagoland, Briscoe found himself in victory lane.
He’s been strong here since coming over to Joe Gibbs Racing. At his first start, they were still learning each other, but since then it’s been a fourth-place run last fall, where he led 57 laps, and a solid eighth-place finish this spring despite the early-season troubles the team had. All we need is a top five from a driver who is a top five contender every week.
Kyle Larson to Win (+410)
Just piling on to what was said above. Larson is the man to beat this week. He’s gotten back to victory lane in two of the last three weeks, and had a stellar run at the most similar track on the schedule just last week. Larson led 235 of 267 laps at Kansas, and he’s been strong on 1.5-mile tracks all year. He led 62 laps in the spring at Las Vegas. In nine NextGen car races here, Larson had two wins and finished top two in five times. Ride the hot hand. If you need an extra push into this bet, check out the Kyle Busch tribute car Larson will be racing at Busch’s home track this weekend.
Bringing a piece of Kyle Busch’s legacy back to the track. https://t.co/7cI1tfxSVM
— Hendrick Motorsports (@TeamHendrick) September 30, 2026
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