Are the Bengals even the right favorite? The guys don’t think so, and both of them took the Jaguars plus the points. Jacksonville and Cincinnati kick off Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET in Cincinnati, OH, and the Bengals were 2.5-point favorites with a total of 51 when the guys taped on September 30. Ryan’s wrong-favorite case and Sean’s revenge angle are both on the NFL Picks Week 4 episode.
Jaguars vs Bengals Odds
The Bengals were 2.5-point favorites over the Jaguars, with the total at 51, when the guys taped on September 30.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): Jaguars +2.5
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): Jaguars +2.5
Ryan raised the lookahead before anything else. Jacksonville heads to England for two weeks after this game, and instead of leaving from home the team has to stop in Cincinnati on the way. It didn’t move him off the Jaguars. He had them second in defensive DVOA, second against the pass and fifth against the run, and he put the bad second half in Denver on the altitude and on a coach who adjusts well. He went as far as saying the wrong team may be favored again. His standing rule for the season: if Jacksonville keeps showing up as a short dog or a short favorite, he’ll take it every time. He likes them as a teaser leg too.
Sean’s case started with the results. The Jaguars took care of the Browns at home and only let the Denver game get away in the second half, and he pointed out their defense had allowed only 36 points this season. He called it a revenge game after a brutal loss in Cincinnati last year, and he thinks that Jacksonville defense is criminally underrated right now. He gave the Bengals their due as well: the Jaguars aren’t as strong on the road, and Joe Burrow off a loss has been a strong spot, 20-10 against the spread by Sean’s count. He took the points anyway. He expects Jacksonville to attack the middle of the field the way the Steelers did against Cincinnati the week before, and if the Bengals can’t get their run game going, he figures they’re in a tough spot.
The back end of the segment went to props. Someone in the chat asked about laddering Trevor Lawrence touchdowns, and Sean liked Brenton Strange receiving yards against a Bengals defense he said still gives up yardage to tight ends. Ryan’s read was that Cincinnati has been sitting two safeties high and leaving the middle open, and that only gets worse if the pass rush doesn’t get home. For him, that’s the big story of the game.
Hear the full breakdown on the NFL Picks Week 4 episode, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Watch every game on YouTube, and download the SGPN app at sg.pn/links. See all our NFL Picks.
