London, England, gets Colts vs Commanders on Sunday, October 4 at 9:30 AM ET, and the guys split on it. Sean Green leaned on how well favorites have covered in international games. Ryan Kramer built his case on Washington’s run defense and on Daniel Jones being 0-2 in international games. The Colts were 3.5-point favorites with a total of 47 when the guys taped on September 30, and the whole back-and-forth is on the NFL Picks Week 4 episode.
Colts vs Commanders Odds
The Colts were 3.5-point favorites over the Commanders, with a total of 47, when the guys taped on September 30. That is the number both picks below were made against.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): Commanders +3.5
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): Colts -3.5
Ryan read the number and added a scheduling wrinkle: Washington is passing on a bye after London and playing the Giants the following week. Sean called that smart. Neither host knew at taping whether Marcus Mariota or Jayden Daniels would start for Washington. Sean had heard the Colts were flying out on the Thursday before the game, with Washington already in London. He didn’t think Thursday was crazy for a London trip, though he would have left a little earlier, and Ryan’s view was simply that getting there early is better.
Sean opened the handicap with the trend that ended up deciding his pick: favorites have gone 38-24-2 against the spread in international games. He had both pass defenses near the bottom of the league, Washington 31st in passing yards allowed and the Colts 30th. Washington has been stingy against running backs, though, allowing the third-fewest yards to the position, while giving up plenty to tight ends, which is why Sean said it was hard not to look at Tyler Warren props. He wasn’t sold on Washington’s win over Seattle either. The Commanders got outgained by 200 yards and won on turnovers, and Ryan added that a pick six skews the yardage because the offense never has to drive the field.
Then Sean admitted he was a little nervous about the Colts if they couldn’t get the run game going, and Ryan took that and ran. To him that is the whole game. He can’t quite explain how Washington’s head coach has this defense stopping the run, but it is, and without a ground game he thinks Daniel Jones is in trouble. Jones is 0-2 in international games, doesn’t have the mobility to bail himself out, and in Ryan’s words it doesn’t take a great defense to rattle him, just one willing to gamble on his first read. Ryan also has Jones pegged to throw the most interceptions in the league, so he has a rooting interest. His bottom line: if Washington stops the run, Indy has no business laying 3.5.
Sean came back with Mariota’s record, 11-25-1 against the spread after a win, plus Washington’s 0-4 ATS mark off a win last season. Ryan countered that backup quarterbacks are 6-0 straight up and 6-0 against the spread this season, four of those as underdogs, but when Sean asked how many had made a second start, Ryan checked and found each had made just one. That was Sean’s point: backups show up for the first game and fall apart after. He’ll take the better head coach, a Colts passing game he expects to find room against Washington’s defense, and the international favorites, so Colts -3.5. Ryan’s reply was that they had just spent the whole segment listing reasons to fade the Colts. They signed off with matching jabs: good luck laying 3.5 with Daniel Jones, and good luck taking Marcus Mariota off a win.
Hear the full breakdown on the NFL Picks Week 4 episode, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Watch every game on YouTube, and download the SGPN app at sg.pn/links. See all our NFL Picks.
