A Broncos run defense that Ryan Kramer said ranks 27th in DVOA, paired with what he called the quarterback mismatch, left him sure the 49ers were on sale. He and Sean Green both took the 49ers -2.5 for the Broncos’ trip to Santa Clara, CA on Sunday, October 4 at 4:25 PM ET, and San Francisco was a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5 when the guys taped on September 30. Ryan made that case on the NFL Picks Week 4 episode.
Broncos vs 49ers Odds
The 49ers were 2.5-point favorites over the Broncos with a total of 48.5 when the guys taped on September 30.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): 49ers -2.5
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): 49ers -2.5
Ryan opened by admitting he couldn’t figure out why sharp bettors, people he respects, were lining up behind Denver. His read on the quarterbacks drives a lot of his pick. He thinks the 49ers’ quarterback is playing on another level and sees a wide gap between him and Bo Nix, especially away from Denver, where Ryan said Nix has been worse over his career, probably because the defense is better at home. Sean stuck up for Nix a little there, noting he had played only one road game through Week 3. Ryan also doesn’t see Sean Payton holding a scheme edge on either side of the ball, so he found no reason to hand the 49ers a home discount.
Sean took the scenic route to the same side. When he first saw two and a half, he assumed a 49ers injury had to be behind it. Then he tried to explain why the market likes Denver, pointing out the Broncos beat the Rams and the Jaguars, two teams power-rating bettors had near the top. Ryan’s answer was that both came at home, early in the season. Sean gave the Broncos side its best shot anyway. He brought up the 49ers letting the Cardinals hang around, and he raised the 49ers kicker, who he said missed two extra points in Week 3, floating a 24-23 kind of finish where San Francisco wins and still doesn’t cover.
Both admitted Sean Payton as an underdog is an uncomfortable fade. Denver’s run defense is what settled it. Ryan said that matchup by itself, quarterbacks aside, should already have San Francisco laying more, and he expects play action to work and likes the 49ers’ matchups in the passing game. Sean agreed the ground game sets up well for the 49ers and ended with “give me the Niners here,” saying they have to keep taking them until something changes. Ryan named the one way they end up wrong: Denver winning a shootout.
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