Another week of NFL action has come to an end. But the NFL betting world never sleeps. It’s time to turn our focus to Week 4 of action. We’re three weeks into the NFL, and it feels like we have the answer key to some teams. For other teams, we now have more questions than answers. From May to NFL Week 4, what are the biggest line changes, what does it tell us, and the most important question: what should we be betting on because of the movement?
We’ve once again had some key line movement from the original lines all the way back in May. Last week, the books got the movement right: two of the teams we highlighted covered the new number, while the 49ers line got shorter; they didn’t cover, but it moved in the correct direction. This was in contrast to Week 2, where only one of the three games we highlighted moved in the correct direction.
Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) to (-3.5)
Let’s head out to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England to kick things off with our first big line swing. When the schedule came out, there were questions around both of these teams: the Indianapolis Colts and the Washington Commanders. For Indianapolis, the questions were around quarterback Daniel Jones. Would he be back from injury and ready to rock when the season started? The answer has been a yes. They started the season 0-2, but took Kansas City to overtime, and then took down the Texans in Week 3.
Washington was coming off a tough year, but excited for a healthy Jayden Daniels. Daniels got hurt again in Week 2, reinjuring the elbow he had problems with last year. He missed Week 3, but Marcus Mariota stepped in and picked up the first win for the team against the reigning champs. Daniels is listed as week-to-week, but it’s unlikely he makes the start in London.
The line movement here is key, as of course it crossed zero, the game favorite changed, and it went over a field goal. Eye test-wise, the Colts have been the much better team in 2026. Washington got the ole backup quarterback bump last week that we often see in the first start when a backup comes in. Mariota is also a strong backup, but the case remains that Indianapolis is the better team. This line movement is more than appropriate based on what we’ve seen from the two teams, and we just need the Colts to win by two.
Pick: Follow the Movement – Colts -3.5
Arizona Cardinals (+7) to (-1.5)
Back on U.S. soil and to the Meadowlands for the New York Giants as they host the Arizona Cardinals. New York has once again lost quarterback Jaxson Dart for the year, and Jameis Winston is in to replace him. Winston didn’t look great in relief against the Rams. In Week 3 Winston made the start against the Tennessee Titans in a sloppy weather game and led the team to a win.
Arizona, on the other hand, has looked a little bipolar. Everyone expected them to be the worst team in the league this year. They destroyed survivor pools in Week 1 by taking down the Chargers. In Week 2, the Seattle Seahawks blew them out. Week 3, San Francisco was never really in danger of losing to the Cardinals, but Arizona kept the game close and covered the spread.
A couple of things go into this massive point movement. The biggest is Jaxson Dart. Is Dart 8.5 points better than Jameis Winston? The other is Arizona just a better football team than we anticipated? This should be a close, tough-fought football game, but John Harbaugh against a first-year head coach just isn’t getting enough respect here. Let’s fade the line movement and take the team that was supposed to do it all along.
Pick: Fade the Movement – Giants +1.5
Buffalo Bills (-3) to (-7)
From a field goal to a touchdown in a divisional matchup is a big swing. Especially one of this magnitude. The New England Patriots have looked lost this season; Drake Maye doesn’t seem to be himself. They played a close one with Seattle and beat Pittsburgh. But last week was a whopping put-on by the Jaguars. For Buffalo, it’s been smooth sailing to 3-0. They took down the Texans in a shootout, dismantled the Lions, and then struggled for a while with the Chargers before putting the game away. They have clearly been the better team in 2026, so the line movement makes all the sense in the world. Easy day for Josh Allen and company, right?
As a Patriots fan, I would agree. New England is beat up, Maye looks lost, and the team appears to be in shambles. But the main reason I’m pushing back on this movement is the “Close Your Eyes Special.” A team that underperformed the spread by 21+ points in its previous game AND is catching points in its next game qualifies. New England does qualify as a Close Your Eyes Special. This trend is hitting at 57% over the last six seasons, and cashed the one time we’ve seen it in 2026 when the Falcons not only covered but won outright last week in Green Bay.
It’s called close your eyes for a reason. You have to close your eyes to make the bet, but it’s the right one. New England will find a way to be in this. Over the last five games between these teams, none have been decided by more than seven points, even when Bailey Zappe was the man under center for New England.
Pick: Fade the Movement – Patriots +7
