NFL Prop Bets Week 3 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) bring CJ Sullivan (@CJSullivan_) back into the studio for NFL Week 3 prop bets. CJ opens by fading TreVeyon Henderson, and Sean closes with a Degen parlay that pays 1,269 to 1.
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CJ started ugly on purpose. Henderson under 40.5 rushing yards against a Jacksonville front that has held the last three backs it faced to 3.2 a carry, including Quinshon Judkins at 12 for 33 and J.K. Dobbins at 10 for 36. The Patriots line just lost its best guard, and Rhamondre Stevenson still takes his share of the work. Sean kept the under train rolling with Malik Nabers under 56.5 receiving yards. Nabers is playing through a shoulder, Jameis Winston is on a short week after a Monday night game on the West Coast, and there’s a nor’easter in the forecast. Still, Kramer reminded him Jameis did chuck a few deep ones to Nabers against the Rams.
Quarterback Legs Lead These NFL Week 3 Prop Bets
Kramer went looking for sunshine and found Baker Mayfield over 16.5 rushing yards at minus 114. Baker has 59 rushing yards through two ugly games, 4 for 29 and 5 for 30 with a touchdown against Cincinnati, and Brian Flores is going to send pressure. Then CJ wants Justin Herbert over 19.5 in Buffalo. The Chargers are 0 and 2, Herbert got testy at the podium, and C.J. Stroud, who does not run, went for 15 against this Bills defense in Week 1. Sean’s is the chalky one: Lamar Jackson over 37.5 rushing yards in Brazil. Dallas has given up the most rushing yards to quarterbacks, and Jayden Daniels had 69 at the half before he got hurt.
The receivers got their turn. Kramer took Adonai Mitchell’s alt 60 receiving yards at plus 152. Mitchell has cleared 60 in both games and owns 53 percent of the Jets’ air yards, and after a scare over a finger on the injury report, he doesn’t look likely to miss the game. Meanwhile, Sean stayed in that game with Geno Smith over 223.5 passing yards, because Geno in a dome is a different quarterback and the Lions secondary is banged up. Kramer called the weather fake and played Parker Washington over 62.5 receiving yards at plus 111, off 5 for 83 and a touchdown against the Browns and 7 for 98 against Denver.
Sean is running back Pat Freiermuth over 34.5 receiving yards because the Bengals give up more yards to tight ends than anyone, and CJ backed him up: Freiermuth averages 66.4 yards and has six touchdowns in seven career games against Cincinnati. Kramer’s tight end is Tyler Warren to score at plus 245, which is too long for a guy who has found the end zone in both games. CJ took a Browns slot receiver over 3.5 catches (10 through two games) and Tre Tucker over 18.5 on his longest reception in New Orleans. Sean wants the 49ers backup running back over 34.5 rushing yards with Christian McCaffrey sitting out Wednesday practice. Kramer’s last one is Malik Washington over 35.5 receiving yards with Caleb Douglas out. CJ’s Brian Daboll revenge play is Wan’Dale Robinson over 3.5 receptions at plus money.
The Ladders And The Degen Parlays
CJ skipped to 50 yards on Tre Harris at plus 276 and climbed from there: 70 at plus 730, 100 at 27 to 1, 110 at 40 to 1. Ladd McConkey is out, and somebody has to catch the ball. Sean’s ladder is Kenneth Walker receiving yards against a Miami defense that has allowed the most receiving yards to running backs, topping out at 80 for 15 to 1. Kramer went with Michael Wilson, who went for 185 the last time he saw the 49ers. He played 45, 60, 80 and 100, with 100 paying plus 850.
For the Degen plays, Kramer wants quarterbacks running it in: Herbert at plus 530, Baker at 7 to 1 and Geno at plus 850, which is 477 to 1 together. CJ put two backups in a blowout together to score the last touchdown, a 49ers running back and a Chiefs rookie at 12 to 1 each, for 169 to 1. Sean needs Walker and Lamar to each get 80 yards, which pays almost 178 to 1. Add Geno throwing for 300 and it’s 1,269 to 1. Not quite Jenny’s number, but close enough to dial.
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Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
1:00 Welcome to the Sports Gambling Podcast
8:36 Patriots-Jaguars: TreVeyon Henderson Under Rushing Yards
10:19 Giants: Malik Nabers Under Receiving Yards
14:47 Baker Mayfield’s Rushing Yards Prop
17:35 QB Rushing Props: Justin Herbert & Lamar Jackson
22:48 Jets-Lions: Garrett Wilson & Geno Smith Props
27:40 Panthers-Browns: Deshaun Watson Returns To Cleveland
29:51 Parker Washington Over Receiving Yards Vs. Patriots
32:04 Tight End Props: Freiermuth & Tyler Warren
35:21 Raiders-Saints: Tre Tucker Longest Reception
37:32 Final Props: 49ers-Cardinals Backfield & Dolphins’ Malik Washington
41:25 Giants Revenge Game & The Underdog Parlay
52:09 The Ladder: Tre Harris Vs. Bills
55:48 The Ladder: Kenneth Walker Vs. Dolphins
57:41 The Ladder: Michael Wilson Vs. 49ers
1:01:03 The Degen Bet Parlays
1:05:52 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
