There’s no reason to beat around the bush. Last week’s picks weren’t it. It was something I was worried about after such a strong start. After starting 13-3, I went 1-4 last week. You’re mad. I’m mad. We all lost money. I get it. It was the regression after a strong start that I was hoping wouldn’t come. It did. Maybe you want to fade me this week. That’s okay, and I get it. Do it. However, I’m bouncing back. Still with a winning record of 14-7 on the season, we’ve made money, and we’re going to continue to make money. Let’s take a look at this week’s FCS Week 4 bets.
FCS Week 4 Picks And Best Bets
Northern Arizona @ Montana State (-19.5)
Saturday, September 26th, 7:30 PM Pacific / 10:30 PM Eastern
This is probably the hardest one to pick on the board, so I had to challenge myself and get some action in it. 19.5 is a lot of points. However, Montana State has earned it. They are 4-0. They beat Utah Tech in Week 0 by a spread of 54-0. Then they beat Butler 51-24 and Nevada 20-7, but Central Connecticut gave them some challenges last week. They still won 35-30, but they didn’t cover the 41.5-point spread.
Northern Arizona is 3-1 after winning in Week 0, 34-27 over Eastern Washington. They then lost as 33.5-point dogs to Arizona, but covered the spread. They beat Incarnate Word 38-28 and Utah Tech 35-23. The same Utah Tech team that Montana State beat 54-0.
Utah State faltered some last week, and that give sme a little pause. However, this is a proud program that generally plays very well at home. The Last time Northern Arizona covered a spread bigger than this against them was back in 2022. I like Montana State to bounce back in this one and prove that last week was a fluke.
FCS Week 4 Best Bet: Montana State (-19.5)
Northern Arizona @ Montana State: Over 56.5 Points
Saturday, September 26th, 7:30 PM Pacific / 10:30 PM Eastern
I think Montana State wins this one by over 20 points. However, I still think there’ll be a decent amount of points scored. Maybe that makes you want to take the dog, and I get that. Northern Arizona has scored 34, 7, 38, and 35 points. Montana State has scored 35, 20, 51, and 54.
These teams can both move the ball and score points. The under needs Montana State to sit on the ball for an entire half. However, that’s not how this offense has operated when they have a lead that they can extend. They take points in the air. I still think this game could land somewhere around 42-17. That gives us the Montana State cover as well as the over.
FCS Week 4 Best Bet: Northern Arizona/Montana State OVER 56.5 Points
Montana @ UC Davis (-3.5)
Saturday, September 26th, 7:00 PM Pacific / 10 PM Eastern
The next FCS Week 4 matchup I’m looking at includes another Montana team. Montana hits the road to take on UC Davis. These teams are both 3-1. However, they’re a combined 1-7 against the spread. Both losses by each team came against FBS opponents, not Big Sky FCS opponents. The market has UC Davis as a favorite at home by 3.5 points.
Montana runs the ball well and plays tough defense against the run. That identity tends to travel. UC Davis is dangerous at home, and they will try to get this into a track meet. The Grizzlies could keep up there as well. If we break down their offenses, the Grizzlies are averaging 258.8 passing yards a game and 147.8 rushing yards. Meanwhile, the Aggies are averaging 286.3 passing yards per game and 124.3 rushing yards.
My one concern for Montana is that the UC Davis run defense is only allowing 102 rushing yards per game. If they can shut down the Grizzlies’ attack, we’ll be forced into an air battle. Montana’s defense is allowing an average of 292.5 passing yards per game in the air. It’s only 12 more than UC Davis, but it’s enough, especially when they also aren’t holding the run as well. I like this better at three points, but I still have to ride with the home team. I was going to pick Montana and talked myself out of it. So, maybe you want to fade me here. However, as soon as I hit publish, I’m betting UC Davis.
FCS Week 4 Best Bet: UC Davis -3.5
Harvard (-13.5) @ Brown
Friday, September 25th, 4:00 PM Pacific / 7:00 PM Eastern
This game’s lookahead value had Harvard as a 12-point favorite. After their season-opening win 31-7 against New Hampshire (which I was on the wrong side of), it’s gone up to 13.5 points. Brown didn’t do enough to impress after a 17-10 win over New Haven, where they were 11-point favorites.
Sure, that game was on the road, and opening the season on the road can be tough. However, Harvard was also on the road. Will two road games in a row put a wrench in their offense? Maybe. However, I think this team is more talented.
Ivy games often stay a little bit lower-scoring than Big Sky games do. The favorites tend to control the line of scrimmage better. I don’t think Brown can match Harvard for four quarters. It’s not just a battle of the brains, but a battle of the athleticism, and I think Harvard wins on that front.
FCS Week 4 Best Bet: Harvard (-13.5)
South Dakota @ Youngstown State (-1.5)
Saturday, September 26th, 11:00 AM Pacific / 2:00 PM Eastern
How can I fade this South Dakota team after they went into Boise State and kept it close for so long? They were 29-point dogs, and it was a one-score game until closer to the end. They ended up losing by 14. However, they showed a lot of heart and grit. Could that set them up for a let-down spot? It could. However, I don’t think it will. This South Dakota team has a lot of talent.
That’s not to take away from a 2-2 Youngstown team. Their losses were to a talented South Dakota State Jackrabbits team, 27-20, and Kentucky, 45-13. Their wins were impressive. However, it was against Duquesne and Mercyhurst University. South Dakota has beaten Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado, and Central Connecticut.
I normally ride with the home team in a close point spread. However, I think this South Dakota team unlocked something in that Boise State game. They thought they could have won the game. Now they’re going to take out their aggravation and frustration on Youngstown State.
FCS Week 4 Best Bet: South Dakota (+1.5)
