Thursday Night Football Prop Bets Week 3 Recap
Thursday Night Football props are here. Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) bring back prop specialist Scott Reichel (@ReichelRadio) of The Prop Cast for Falcons at Packers at Lambeau. They open on Kramer’s night at the Rams-Giants funeral and the Jaxson Dart knee. Then they build the card on Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Tucker Kraft, Jordan Love and Matthew Golden. They close with a Jonnu Smith revenge spot at 100-1 and their first touchdown longshots.
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Nobody on this show is pretending it’s a good football game. Kramer’s first words are about the schedule makers putting three straight Falcons prime time games on deck and then leading a week with this one. It’s Lambeau. You could have a great Lambeau game. Instead Atlanta walks in with Michael Penix at quarterback four days after, in Kramer’s read, he’d been bullied into playing football again. Green Bay is laying six and a half and just lost right tackle Zach Tom to a torn patellar tendon.
The Thursday Night Football Props Card
Reichel starts early and small. Drake London over 8.5 first quarter receiving yards at -114, built on eight straight games with Penix under center where London cleared 13 yards in the opening quarter, plus six straight road games doing the same. Penix doesn’t have to be good for that to cash. He just has to look at his best receiver, and as Reichel puts it, he’s better than Cooper Rush, who put up a 5.2 QBR.
Kramer attacks the same passing game from the other side. Bijan Robinson alt over 50 receiving yards at +146, because a quarterback they’re trying to protect checks it down, and Kramer doesn’t feel great about the Packers linebackers. Then he gets to the one he actually wants. Michael Penix to throw an interception was +105 when he found it and has since moved to roughly even money. Sean points out Penix threw a pick in only two of his nine games last year. That’s the entire reason the price exists. Kramer will even call the shape of it: a tipped ball, a throw where Penix isn’t looking where he’s throwing.
All three of them end up on the tight end. Atlanta has given up three touchdowns to the position in two games, on 12 catches for 114 yards, and both Darren Waller and Pat Freiermuth torched them. Reichel takes Tucker Kraft over 18.5 first half receiving yards at -115, ducking the risk that a Green Bay lead turns the second half into a run game. Sean would rather have the anytime touchdown at +175, off a 98% snap share last week and a red zone role that hasn’t produced yet. Reichel’s Jordan Love over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -122 pulls Sean off the passing yards number and onto the tail, with AJ Terrell on IR and that secondary already leaking.
Kramer’s last one is Matthew Golden, who has two more snaps on the season than Christian Watson and still gets priced like the second option. Golden went for 95 yards against Minnesota in week one and 58 against the Jets, and in that second one he accounted for better than a quarter of everything Green Bay gained all night. Kramer’s projection is nine targets, five catches, 75 yards. So take the over 52.5 receiving yards at -114, or 4.5 catches at +115 if you want the plus money. Sean goes yards, because Golden keeps hitting the big one.
The Jonnu Smith Revenge Spot And The First TD Card
The DGen play came from a kid in the stands. Kramer was at Rams-Giants, a listener asked him for an early Thursday lean, and the man’s high school aged son answered it himself: Jonnu Smith revenge spot. Kramer had just cashed a tight end two touchdown ticket against this same Falcons team. Then Reichel texted over his plays with Jonnu Smith two touchdowns at 100-1 already on them.
Sean’s version is louder. Tucker Kraft two touchdowns plus the Falcons moneyline at 61-1, a rerun of an Austin Hooper ticket he hit a couple years back. The first touchdown card runs Kraft between 10-1 and 11-1, Jonnu at 33-1, Penix to run one in at 55-1, Brian Robinson Jr. at 35-1, and both defenses, Atlanta at 30-1 and Green Bay at 40-1. Reichel adds Packers defense and special teams at 28-1. Kramer would skip the bundle and play Zachariah Branch straight at 100-1, since Branch is the guy actually returning kicks.
Kramer’s case for both defenses is the one Sean feeds him. Jordan Love loves that YOLO ball, the Falcons will YOLO blitz, and it isn’t hard to picture Love fifteen yards behind the line of scrimmage floating one straight up for a defensive back to run back. The three leg entry lands on Golden higher at 6.5 targets, London higher at 6.5 first quarter receiving yards, and Kraft to find the end zone. With the 20% bonus on it, fifty bucks max gets you back $532.
Watch: Tyler Warren First Touchdown at 16:1!
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:48 A Brutal Scheduling Spot: Falcons At Packers On Thursday Night
1:36 Rams-Giants Fallout: Aaron Donald’s Return & Jaxson Dart’s Knee Injury
7:51 Scott Reichel Joins The Show & Caleb Williams’ Hamstring Scare
11:28 Drake London’s First-Quarter Yards, Bijan Robinson & Michael Penix’s Interception
16:33 Tyson Bagent’s Concussion & Dallas Turner’s Defensive Player Of The Year Odds
22:42 Tucker Kraft’s Anytime Touchdown & Zach Tom’s Season-Ending Injury
26:31 Jordan Love’s Passing Touchdowns
28:24 The Jets-Packers OT Debate: Aaron Glenn’s Clock-Management Meltdown
35:04 Matthew Golden’s Receiving Yards & A Jaxson Dart Update
38:16 Building The Underdog Entry
40:10 The Degen Play: Jonnu Smith’s Two Touchdowns
43:48 First Touchdown Board: Tucker Kraft, Jonnu Smith & The Longshots
48:04 What’s Next On SGPN
49:33 Thank You For Participating In The Sports Gambling Podcast
