The long, dark summer is officially over. Training Camp? Finished. Preseason? No one thinks about preseason once Week 1 rolls around. The NFL is officially back, and Week 1 was sufficiently chaotic. We’ve gone through the numbers and found three real teams that we want to follow. There are also three teams that are completely fake, and we’re looking to fade. Let’s get into what we learned in Week 1 and how we can apply it to Week 2.
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Follow or Fade: NFL Trends and Analysis From Week 1
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco went on a business trip to Australia and treated it like a business trip. The 49ers showed up early, came prepared, and looked like they were in mid-season form. Basically, the exact opposite of what the Los Angeles Rams did.
Brock Purdy threw an interception, but was efficient for most of the night. He threw three touchdown passes to three different receivers and generally avoided big mistakes. The usage rate of Kaelon Black was a bit of a surprise. Black lead the 49ers in carries in the first week of the season.
The 49ers defense generated pressure on 41% of Matthew Stafford‘s dropbacks and graded out as the seventh most efficient defense in Week 1. They failed to record a sack, but the Rams’ passing attack struggled to the point that they waived the white flag with a Stetson Bennett IV appearance by the end.
San Francisco returns home in Week 2 to face the Miami Dolphins. This game has one of the most efficient teams in the league against one of the least. The 49ers should roll against one of the weakest rosters in the league.
Best Bet: San Francisco -13.5
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens head coach Jesse Minter had a reputation for doing more with less on defense with the Los Angeles Chargers. The Ravens defense looked rejuvenated in Week 1 as they forced two turnovers, managed two sacks, and nine QB pressures in a win on Sunday against the Colts. Baltimore also limited the Indianapolis offense to under 300 yards. The Ravens limited explosive plays and generally short-circuited the Indianapolis offense when they really needed to. The Ravens’ secondary, in particular, graded out well in Week 1.
On offense, the Ravens looked like the Ravens. Lamar Jackson did lose a fumble, but played an otherwise clean game. The ground game also looked impressive as Derrick Henry continued to rumble into the second and third levels as he has for the last decade.
The Ravens look like the Ravens, and it’s time to buy back in. The defense made plays, and the offense looked like what we’ve been used to seeing from a Lamar Jackson-led squad. Baltimore gets the Saints coming to Charm City this weekend, and this is a great opportunity to take advantage. The Ravens just scored 41 points on the road, and they get a Saints defense that allowed 31 to the Lions last weekend. Let’s play the Ravens team total over.
Best Bet: Ravens Team Total Over 27.5
New York Giants
The New York Giants beat the Cowboys 28-20 on Sunday Night Football, but the underlying metrics indicate that this wasn’t a fluke win at home.
First, quarterback Jaxson Dart was second in the league in EPA per play behind only Trevor Lawrence. More importantly, it wasn’t him just improvising on offense. Only two of his completions came from outside the pocket. The Giants also had four drives of 10 or more plays and needed to punt only once all night. This offense has taken a leap, and it should stay that way as long as Dart succeeds in the structure and everyone stays healthy.
Also, the Giants defense didn’t look nearly as leaky as it did last year. The Cowboys are known for explosive plays, but the Giants were able to limit the damage through the air and appeared to be a bit more stout against the Dallas ground game.
The Giants get the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football this week, and the play is clear.
Best Bet: New York Giants +7
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers lost outright as 10-point favorites to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1. The advanced metrics indicate that this was an earned loss and not just bad luck for the Chargers or good luck for the Cardinals.
Los Angeles actually looked good in the first drive, but appeared to struggle as soon as wide receiver Ladd McConkey left with a chest injury. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert finished the game 17-for-27 for 209 yards and one touchdown. However, Herbert threw an interception and was sacked three times. The Chargers also went 0-for-3 on fourth-down attempts, and that really helped the game get away from them. Offensive Coordinator Mike McDaniel’s new offense looked like a work in progress, but it seemed like there were a lot of missed assignments. This speaks to a lack of preparation that showed itself during McDaniel’s tenure in Miami.
The Chargers get the Las Vegas Raiders in Los Angeles this weekend, but it’s hard to take LA until we see it look like a real offense.
Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +7.5
Los Angeles Rams
The Los Angeles Rams brought the band back together, and they wanted no part of the Australia game. They showed up about 28 hours before kickoff and played like a team that had spent 16 hours on an airplane and tried to play a game while jet-lagged. What’s even worse is that it turns out pass rusher Myles Garrett made the trip and played while needing knee surgery. None of the metrics made the Rams look good after their effort in Melbourne.
The Rams have the third-oldest roster in the league, and they need to show that they were jet-lagged and not really washed. This team is a fade until it looks better.
Best Bet: Rams Team Total Under 27.5
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons are without presumptive starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is out with an oblique strain, and Michael Penix is still working his way back from knee surgery. Adding even more confusion to the situation is the status of backup Cooper Rush. Rush suffered back spasms late last week, but gutted his way through it during a tough start at Pittsburgh. Rush is still on the injury report, and the Falcons are a back spasm flare-up away from starting undrafted free agent Jack Strand.
The situation under center gets even more murky if Strand should get hurt. Wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus is listed as the emergency quarterback. There’s a non-zero chance that Atlanta could need to have a position player take snaps at quarterback.
Until the Falcons get Tagovailoa or Penix back to health, this team is an auto-fade.
Best Bet: Carolina Panthers -2.5
The Sports Gambling Podcast
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