With the NFL Futures market coming to a close in a way, I’m looking at where we may be able to take a long-shot bet and cash it at the end of the season. It’ll be a great way to cap off a strong betting year if one of these hits. Otherwise, after a strong first-half of the season, you may be able to sell the ticket or cash out for a nice profit. I’m looking at the underdog candidates for the NFL MVP award and picking three I think could cash for us.
Three NFL MVP Underdog Candidates That Could Hit
Trevor Lawrence (+2500)
Trevor Lawrence already proved he belongs in the NFL MVP conversation. In 2025, he started every game, throwing for 4,007 yards and a career-high 29 touchdowns. He also added 359 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. Those 38 total touchdowns set a Jaguars franchise record and earned him a fifth-place vote in the MVP race. Jacksonville finished 13-4 and won the AFC South.
The second half of the season revealed the version of Lawrence who can win the award. After a midseason meeting in which Liam Coen told Lawrence to let it rip, the Jaguars went 8-0. Lawrence posted elite efficiency numbers, pushed the ball downfield, and used his legs effectively. Now he enters Year 2 in the same system with the same play-caller.
He gets back Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers. Travis Hunter will also get involved. The receiving group gives Lawrence the vertical threats he needs to post a 4,5000 passing yard 35+ touchdown season.
Lawrence still carries the dual-threat element that voters notice. He already ranks among the league leaders in rushing first downs by a quarterback. If Jacksonville can repeat as a 12- or 13-win team and he limits turnovers, voters may struggle to ignore the former number one overall pick. The schedule is tougher this year, which also helps this narrative.
If they continue to perform well, it looks better against a tough schedule. Lawrence simply needs to sustain the late-2025 surge for a full 17 games. That combination of volume, efficiency, and team success could produce an NFL MVP winner.
Bo Nix (+3500)
Bo Nix doesn’t need to reinvent himself for this. He already led the Broncos to a 14-3 record and the AFC’s number one seed last year. He threw for 3,931 yards and 25 touchdowns on a league-high 612 passing attempts. He also added 356 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns.
Denver won an NFL-record number of one-score games and piled up comeback victories. Nix engineered many of those late drives himself. He then beat Josh Allen and the Bills in the playoffs before a broken ankle ended his season one game short of the Super Bowl.
Year 3 often produces the leap for young quarterbacks. Nix now works with a new offensive coordinator, Davis Webb, who brings an Air Raid concept and a fast tempo. The biggest addition to Nix’s campaign is Jaylen Waddle. Denver traded a first-rounder for the speedy wide receiver to specifically create explosive plays. Waddle stretches the field, wins after the catch, and forces defenses to respect the deep ball. That threat alone should raise Nix’s yards per attempt and cut down the three-and-outs that plagued Denver at times last year.
The supporting cast already includes an elite defense and a veteran offensive line. If Nix improves his downfield accuracy and the Broncos win 13 or 14 games, the stats will follow. A 4,200-yard, 35 total touchdown season on a first-place team would put him squarely in the NFL MVP discussion. Voters already respect his winning record and fourth-quarter production. Add a more efficient, explosive passing attack and the long-shot odds look way overblown.
Bijan Robinson (+10000)
Running backs almost never win NFL MVP. Adrian Peterson in 2012 remains the last non-quarterback to take the award. Bijan Robinson still presents the clearest path a back has had in years. In 2025, he led the NFL with 2,298 yards from scrimmage. It was the 12th-highest single-season total in league history.
He rushed for 1,478 yards at 5.1 yards per carry and caught 79 passes for 820 yards. He finished with 11 total touchdowns. Those numbers earned him first-team All-Pro honors and the number three ranking on the NFL top 100. The Falcons responded by making him the highest-paid running back in history.
New head coach Kevin Stefanski and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees plan to scheme more space for Robinson. They will mix gap and power concepts with the outside-zone looks that already produce big plays. They also intend to keep him heavily involved in the screen game. Robinson has never missed a game in his career (knock on wood). That durability matters when voters weigh a workhorse who touches the ball 20+ times every Sunday.
The Falcons are still searching for stability at the quarterback position, which could end up helping Robinson’s case in the MVP narrative. Atlanta will lean on a run-heavy, play-action attack and could win enough games to stay relevant in the NFC South. A 1,600-yard rushing season and 800-1,000 receiving yards with 15 total touchdowns would rank him among some of the greatest dual-threat backs.
Voters have ignored elite running backs for more than a decade. A historic, team-carrying year from Robinson could break that. Robinson already does everything an NFL MVP running back must do. He only needs the Falcons to win enough for the narrative to stick.
