The NFL season is less than a week away, and you may have to make your first pick in your NFL Survivor Pool! Survive and advance each week, and don’t make a wrong pick! Or pick a team that would have better value later on. Obviously, one quarterback injury or a star player could ruin everything if you were saving a team. You can’t predict those things, though. Let’s take a look at the road map to winning your NFL Survivor pool in this guide!
NFL Survivor Guide: A Road Map To Winning
NFL Weeks 1-3 Picks
For Week 1, I’m taking the Chargers over the Cardinals. Los Angeles posts the widest opening line on the board at home as 10.5-point favorites. Arizona has to travel and keep pace with a Chargers roster that is built to win now. They are simply the better team. NFL Survivor pools care about win probability, not the style in which they win. For a backup, look at the Jaguars over the Browns. Jacksonville is a 7.5-point favorite against a rebuilding Cleveland club. If you want to save the Chargers for later, this is a good secondary option.
In Week 2, I’m looking at the Eagles over the Titans. Philadelphia draws Tennessee on the road, but the talent gap is still quite large. Spending the Eagles here protects them from a later division slump or a Saquon Barkley injury. The Titans are rebuilding, and we have yet to see if Cam Ward is the guy. The Eagles obviously have their guy in Super Bowl-winning quarterback Jalen Hurts. For a backup, I also like the Ravens over the Saints. Baltimore hosts the Saints and should be able to control the game from the opening drive.
For Week 3, give me the Lions over the Jets. Detroit opens at home against the Jets and has one of the league’s friendliest early schedules. The Lions will win this one easily, if you don’t mind spending them already. For an alternative, I’ll take the Chiefs over the Dolphins. I know KC struggled last year. However, they’re still the Chiefs, and the Dolphins look to be a mess with few playmakers outside of De’Von Achane.
NFL Weeks 4-6
For our next NFL survivor slate, we’ll look at Weeks 4-6. In Week 4, I’m rolling with the Ravens over the Titans as long as you didn’t use the backup option in Week 2. Baltimore gets Tennessee at home after the Saints game. A repeat look at a weaker AFC South roster is exactly how this NFL Survivor strategy banks a win without using up a team like Buffalo. For a backup, give me Detroit over the Panthers. Detroit should handle Carolina, but it is a road pick. I would hold on to this one unless Baltimore’s health has taken a turn.
In Week 5, I hesitantly say to give me the Packers over the Bears. It’s hard to go and win in Lambeau Field in a rivalry game. Taking the Packers here while they still have health and the weather is mild is a good plan. A backup plan is the Broncos over the Chargers. I think the Broncos could continue to be one of the top teams in the AFC, just like last year.
For Week 6, give me the Bills over the Raiders. Buffalo travels to Las Vegas to take on a club with a low win total. The Bills’ floor remains high enough to use on the road against a team that doesn’t have the same talent. As a backup plan, take the Ravens at the Browns if you still have the Ravens available. Sure, Cleveland games can get ugly at home. However, the Ravens are a far better team.
Weeks 7-10
For Week 7, give me the Texans over the Giants. This is in Houston, and they have an elite defense. I expect the Giants to be better this year, but this is a tough task. As a backup, I’m looking at the Broncos over the Cardinals if you still have the Broncos available. Denver is good enough to easily travel to Arizona and win.
In Week 8, I’m eying the Lions over the Vikings. Detroit at home against a division foe feels automatic. As an alternative, look at the Seahawks over the Bears. If the Seahawks are still performing as well as last year, this is a long trip for Chicago.
During Week 9, I like the Chiefs over the Jets. It’s in Kansas City and is a huge mismatch. Burn the Chiefs here before the Thanksgiving and December gauntlet that they have. As a backup, if you didn’t use them yet, the Lions over the Dolphins looks good. I have very little faith in this Dolphins team.
Speaking of the Dolphins, in Week 10 I like the Colts over the Dolphins. The Colts host Miami and will give you an easy win without touching a leftover superstar team. This is how a single-entry NFL Survivor road map stays intact into December. As a backup, I like the Rams over the Cardinals. The Rams are the Super Bowl favorites. The Cardinals are one of the worst-graded teams.
NFL Week 11 – 14
We’re in the homestretch now. In Week 11, I’m taking the Broncos over the Raiders. The Broncos host the Raiders, and you can always lean on home-field advantage against a familiar division opponent. This last stretch is all about making the smart plays. As a backup, the Chiefs over the Cardinals is a good play if you haven’t used the Chiefs yet.
In Week 12, I like the Steelers over the Broncos. A home favorite in the AFC is a safe Thanksgiving week play. I know the Broncos are a better team. However, the Steelers are notoriously good at home. As a backup, I’ll throw my team under the bus again and take the Lions over the Bears.
In Week 13, I like the Bucs over the Chargers. It’s a long trip for LA. Plus, you’ve likely already used the Chargers. So you’re now rooting for their failure. As a backup, if you haven’t used the Lions yet, I like them to win over Atlanta.
In Week 14, give me the Bills over the Packers. Green Bay’s offensive line is so-so, and I have real questions about their team this year. The Bills will be making their playoff push, as they have for the last seven years. An alternative play is the 49ers over the Rams. This is a tricky play, but a home game for a 49ers team that I think will need the win more than the Rams do.
Week 15-18
In the final stretch, if you haven’t used the Rams yet, you use them in Week 15 over the Cowboys. I think Dallas will improve this year, but not on the road against the league’s best. As a backup, take the Packers over the Dolphins. Again, I don’t have much hope in this Dolphins team. Plus, they know Malik Willis well.
In Week 16, take the Saints over the Cardinals. There aren’t a lot of spots where I like taking the Saints. However, at home against a weaker team is the perfect time to capitalize and use them. As a backup, I’m looking at the Cowboys and Jaguars game. Watch injury reports at this point in the season. However, I think I am giving the Jaguars the edge.
For Week 17, I’m taking the Patriots over the Broncos. I imagine both teams will need this win. However, I’m taking the home team in an AFC showdown. As a backup, if you haven’t used the Texans, that offensive line may just destroy Jordan Love.
In Week 18, you don’t have a lot to pick from. Keep an eye on what teams are resting their starters. One team I expect will be is the Chicago Bears. So I’ll take the Vikings to beat them in Minnesota. Otherwise, look for the largest remaining home favorite as a backup. This NFL Survivor strategy gets you to January!
