Let the Chase commence! NASCAR’s postseason format has changed and shifted back to a new version of the “Chase.” Now in a 16-driver battle over 10 races, the best driver wins it all. It begins with one of the toughest races in the entire schedule at the “Track Too Tough to Tame.” Darlington Raceway, in the long and grueling Southern 500. Let’s dive into this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.
When it comes to handicapping the Southern 500, it’s a race special in and of itself. A crown jewel on the NASCAR schedule, some drivers will tell you it’s the most grueling of the season. The extra 100 miles from the spring’s 400-mile race make all the difference. I’m looking for drivers who have had success in this event itself, or proven to me they can be trusted with extra miles on the line.
Odds to Win Cook Out Southern 500
Tyler Reddick +500
Denny Hamlin +500
Chase Briscoe +650
Kyle Larson +850
Ryan Blaney +900
Christopher Bell +1000
William Byron +1100
Ty Gibbs +1600
Joey Logano +1800
Chris Buescher +1900
Bubba Wallace +2200
Brad Keselowski +2200
Chase Elliott +3000
Erik Jones +3000
Corey Heim +3000
Carson Hocevar +3500
Josh Berry +5000
Austin Cindric +5000
Ryan Preece +5000
Ross Chastain +6000
Alex Bowman +7500
Daniel Suarez +8000
Shane van Gisbergen +10000
Austin Dillon +15000
John Hunter Nemechek +15000
Austin Hill +15000
Zane Smith +15000
Connor Zilisch +25000
Michael McDowell +25000
Riley Herbst +25000
AJ Allmendinger +30000
Ty Dillon +50000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +50000
Noah Gragson +50000
Chad Finchum +50000
Todd Gilliland +50000
Cody Ware +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Cook Out Southern 500 Best Bets
Ty Gibbs Top 10 (-125)
Gibbs has proven to be good here at Darlington. He has three straight top-10 finishes in the spring races, including a second-place run in the spring 2024 race. But that’s the 400-miler. His results in the 500-mile race haven’t been nearly as good. For most drivers, that would disqualify him from making my best bets.
However, in 2026. Ty Gibbs and this Joe Gibbs Racing #54 team have shown us that when they get down, they don’t get out. We’ve seen countless times where they fall behind on a penalty or a slow stop, and Ty just claws his way back. His results each weekend are much better than his history. Now, he’s got a track record he’s already been good at. Then, you add in what he’s shown us in 2026. It’s a steal at this price.
Erik Jones Top 10 (+135)
The first driver I think of every year for this year is the driver of the Legacy Motor Club #43 Toyota. Jones absolutely thrives in and loves this race. He’s a two-time Southern 500 winner with a stellar record in this race. He finished third place last year and has been top 10 in three of the four NextGen starts in this race. Throughout his entire career of nine starts in this race, Jones has finished top 10 in six of them. It doesn’t seem to matter how his season is going; he shows up in one of the most grueling races of the year to dance with the Lady in Black more often than not.
Chase Briscoe to Win (+650)
Briscoe is the back-to-back winner of this race. He did it last year as the first race of the Chase in this #19 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing. In 2024, he did it in his #14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford, for a team that was about to close shop. At that time, it was the last race of the regular season, and the win vaulted Briscoe into the 2024 Playoff field. Briscoe has continued to show speed this year, and just won at the last somewhat “comparable” track in Chicago. The headline after the weekend: New “Chase” favorite in Briscoe.
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