AFC West Preview Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) preview the entire 2026 AFC West: win totals, division-winner odds, and best bets for the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, and Las Vegas Raiders. The guys break down whether Denver and the Chargers can push double-digit wins, where the Raiders land under their number, and whether anyone in the division is catching Kansas City.
All 32 team previews are in the books. So this show is the audit. The guys go back through the win numbers they handed out weeks ago. They decide what to move and what to stand on. Then they fold in the camp and injury news that landed since. Kramer handed out 271 wins across the league. Sean gave out 269.5, tie to the Cowboys and all. So a few wins are still floating. Now they start at the bottom and work up.
Las Vegas Raiders Win Total And Best Bets
The Raiders number is 5.5 and the room splits right away. Sean stays under, all the way down at 3-14. But Kramer keeps his optimistic 6-11 and holds the over. Then came the Ashton Jeanty scare on taping day. The internet had already buried him with a torn ACL. Still, it turned out to be an ankle sprain. So Kramer does not flinch. He keeps his longshot for Jeanty to post the first 150-yard rushing game of the year. And he tacks on Jeanty over 6.5 rushing touchdowns.
Sean is betting the floor here. His play is Raiders most losses at 10-to-1. The offensive line scares him. So he sees no real ceiling on this roster. He also loves Miami in Week 1 with the Raiders laying 3.5. But Kramer takes the other side of that exact game. He backs the Raiders to win by more than 3.5 over the Dolphins. Now Sean calls it a bad play. Then he admits he already has a little three in his pocket too. So both tickets need Vegas to show up early.
Denver Broncos Win Total And Division Odds
This is where the show gets loud. The total is 9.5 and both guys are over it. But they land there from different spots. Kramer is the lighter believer at 10-7. Sean sits at 12-5 and was tempted to push it to 13. Still, the front of the schedule holds him back. He runs it back on screen: at Kansas City, Jacksonville, the Rams, San Francisco, the Chargers. Now that is a brutal opening stretch. So Kramer’s 0-5 start and 10-win finish makes more sense than it looks.
The best bet is the same on both sides of the desk. Both guys take Denver to win the AFC West at +225. The defense is legit. The offensive line is good. Meanwhile they added Jalen Waddle in the offseason. And Jonah Coleman is the camp story everyone in Denver keeps whispering about. Coleman even carries longshot offensive rookie of the year juice. So Sean stacks the playoffs at -140 on top and eyes the AFC at +1025. Kramer is not sold on Bo Nix the way Sean is. Still, +225 is too clean a price to walk past.
Los Angeles Chargers Win Total And Best Bets
Both hosts are over on the Chargers too. Sean has them just clearing at 10-7. Kramer sits comfortably over at 12-5. Now the rookie center blowing an ACL is a real dent. But Rashawn Slater is back from his own scare. So two healthy tackles change the math up front. That is the gap between a patchwork line and a real one. Sean keeps his best bet simple. He takes Justin Herbert over 3,525.5 passing yards. Still, he cannot resist trolling Herbert with a wild-card exit ticket on the side.
Kramer goes hunting on this one. His best bet is Ladd McConkey for most receiving yards at 55-to-1. That is a full-season ticket, not a weekly play. And he lays out the case fast. McConkey is a target hog in this offense. Meanwhile the schedule softens against pass defenses down the stretch. So if the defense slips, you get Herbert throwing to keep pace. Still, he likes Quentin Johnston most touchdowns at 70-to-1. Now he reads the tight end room hard. He waves fantasy players off Oronde Gadsden. David Njoku beat out the kid this summer. So Njoku is the better version of what Gadsden did last year. First-touchdown card there: Njoku against the Cardinals.
Kansas City Chiefs Win Total And The Under
The Chiefs total is 10.5 and both guys want the under. Sean has them 9-8. Kramer has them 10-7. Patrick Mahomes is coming off an ACL. So the mobility that drives his whole game is the question. The preseason quarterback reps looked rough on top of that. And Rashee Rice has been a mess in camp. Still, Cyrus Allen is the fantasy buzz name, a red-zone type who could steal a couple scores. Kenneth Walker and the run game are the parts that actually flash. So Kramer keeps Walker for most rushing touchdowns at 18-to-1. Now he tosses in Mason Thomas as a 100-to-1 defensive rookie of the year dart.
The real number, though, is the team total. It popped off Kramer’s model loud. Kansas City scored 362 points last year. They put up 385 the year before that. But the market has them sitting at 415.5. Nobody at the desk can explain a 50-point jump. So the play is Chiefs under 415.5 points. They could win 11 games and still land under it. Now that is exactly why Kramer wants it. Only one book is even bold enough to hang the number this year. Still, the price is there to bet, and he is betting it.
The 2026 AFC West Preview Locks
Lock time. Kramer’s favorite bet in the whole division is that Chiefs under 415.5 points. It is the one his model screamed about the loudest. So he plants his flag right there. Sean rides the Broncos over 9.5 wins for his lock. That is the same team he had climbing from 0-5 to double digits. And he says it now: Denver is going in his win-total locks on the final NFL predictions show. But he is carrying six locks into that one. So load them up, because Week 1 is almost here.
NFL Previews
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
11:49 AFC West Betting Preview
13:05 Las Vegas Raiders
21:20 Denver Broncos
26:36 Los Angeles Chargers
38:14 Kansas City Chiefs
46:16 Final Bets & Division Locks
49:07 Thank You For Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
