The NASCAR Cup Series is back! After a week off for the Easter holiday, there’s just one more off week over the next 31 weeks of Cup Series action all the way to the finale at Homestead-Miami, where the champion of the newly revised “Chase” will be crowned. Let’s dive into this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway.
The famed .533-mile in Bristol, Tennessee, is known as the “Last Great Coliseum” and has been a staple on the NASCAR circuit since 1961. They are bringing a new tire this weekend that NASCAR and Goodyear have teamed up to make through testing. The goal appears to be to find a middle ground between the excessive tire wear and no fall off that we’ve gotten a mixture of over the last few seasons. Justin Allgaier will again be driving the #48 car, filling in for an injured Alex Bowman.
Odds to Win the Food City 500
Kyle Larson +350
Christopher Bell +550
Ryan Blaney +600
Denny Hamlin +650
Ty Gibbs +1000
William Byron +1000
Chase Elliott +1200
Chase Briscoe +1300
Joey Logano +2000
Brad Keselowski +2000
Tyler Reddick +2500
Carson Hocevar +2800
Bubba Wallace +3000
Chris Buescher +3000
Ross Chastain +3500
Kyle Busch +3500
Austin Cindric +3500
Ryan Preece +5000
Josh Berry +5000
Zane Smith +10000
AJ Allmendinger +12500
Justin Allgaier +12500
Connor Zilisch +12500
Erik Jones +15000
Daniel Suarez +15000
Michael McDowell +15000
Austin Dillon +15000
John Hunter Nemechek +15000
Noah Gragson +15000
Shane Van Gisbergen +15000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +15000
Todd Gilliland +22500
Cole Custer +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Riley Herbst +50000
Cody Ware +50000
Chad Finchum +50000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway
Brad Keselowski Over Joey Logano (-125)
This is my favorite matchup heading into the weekend at Bristol. Logano is an interesting case. Couldn’t outrun Cody Ware at Darlington. But then we were all over Logano in the last race at Martinsville, and it paid off with a third-place finish. But, back to fading him this weekend because Bristol hasn’t been overly kind to Logano in the NextGen era. Outside of a fifth-place finish here in the fall, he hasn’t finished better than 22nd in any of the other five races on concrete in this generation of car.
At Bristol in 5 of the last 8 races, Brad Keselowski has finished in the top 8.
3-time winner and nearly notched another last summer and finished 2nd.
At Bristol since 2019 minus summer 2020 where he lost power steering, a misleading result in 2022 when he had a flat tire…
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) April 6, 2026
Brad Keselowski is six for six finishing better than Logano here since 2022. Even when Joey had a strong day in the fall, Brad topped it with a runner-up finish. Keselowski has finished top three twice in the last four here, and almost won the race on multiple occasions. Flip the Logano switch off again and go with the driver who is six for six at finishing better.
Denny Hamlin Top 5 (-110)
If they want to hang this type of number on a driver this hot, who is this good at Bristol? Sign me up. There is no driver hotter than Denny Hamlin coming into Bristol, and with an extra week to stew on not winning Martinsville with the best car, he’ll be sure to show up this week. We he best part, for a great price here, we only need him to finish in the top five.
My friends at Wintherace.info ran 200k simulations for this race. Denny Hamlin checks in as the driver most likely to finish top five, doing so 54.9% of the time. Putting fair market value for this bet at -122. Outside of a parts failure in the fall that led to a 31st-place finish, Hamlin finished in the top five in the previous four races here, including two wins. Hamlin comes into the race having finished top five in three of the last four races on the schedule.
Ty Gibbs to Win (+1000)
I’ve been calling Ty Gibbs first career win to come at Bristol since before the 2025 season. Sure, I thought that win would come last year, and boy, was he close. Gibbs led 201 laps last spring before suffering a 10th-place finish, then backed it up with a third-place finish in the fall. But, in 2026, he comes in with the most momentum this young Cup Series driver has ever had. After the drafting track races, Gibbs has finished inside the top six in all five races. Road course, short track, intermediate, throw it all at him, and he just keeps getting it done.
Gibbs is quickly blossoming into the superstar we all knew he was capable of being after his Xfinity Series run. Now he “has all the right people around him.” And he’s proving it makes the difference. Gibbs snaps the winless start to his career and winds up in victory lane at Bristol this weekend. Not only am I taking Gibbs outright at 10/1, but I found five other ways to bet on him on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast this week. What are you waiting for? Check it out now!
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