The Sweet 16 is here! What started as 68 teams with big dreams and aspirations has dwindled down to 16 of the best in the country. Some are expected and survived the chaos, some of the expected took an early exit. Thursday lines up with the first four of eight Sweet 16 games. The winners of those four games will make up the first half of the Elite Eight. Let’s dive in and preview the four games for Thursday and make our Sweet 16 March Madness picks for all four games.
*All times Eastern
2026 NCAA Tournament: March Madness Picks for Thursday, March 26th – Sweet 16
No. 11 Texas vs No. 2 Purdue 7:10
Texas is the closest to a “Cinderella” team if you want, as they are the lowest remaining seed. They were the one team that many thought didn’t belong in the tournament. Texas had to play in via the play-in game before they even got a shot to play in the real tournament. They took down No. 6 BYU Cougars in the First Round, and followed it up with a big upset of Mark Few and his No. 3-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs. Purdue, on the other hand, was the preseason darlings. They started the year as the top-ranked team, but things didn’t go as planned. After a rough finish to the regular season, they finally put it all together the second the postseason tipped off.
The Boilermakers ran through the Big Ten, taking down mighty Michigan in the title game. They destroyed No. 15 Queens NC in the First Round and followed it up with a convincing win over No. 7 Miami. This game is simple: Purdue is the better basketball team, and there is no reason to overthink this one. The Longhorns’ run has been fun, but with Matt Painter having days to prepare and Texas losing all the momentum of three straight wins, talent wins out in this game; Purdue rolls.
Pick: Purdue -6.5
No. 9 Iowa vs No. 4 Nebraska 7:30
No, this isn’t November football, so hopefully we’ll get more than nine points in this game! The Big Ten rivals whose states border each other square off in this big game with the Elite Eight on the line. They played twice during the regular season, an Iowa win in Iowa City, and a Nebraska win in overtime on Senior Night in Lincoln. Iowa survived Clemson in the First Round and then pulled the biggest upset of the tournament thus far, taking down No. 1-seeded Florida.
Nebraska had never won an NCAA Tournament game in the history of the tournament. Now, they have two wins. After being picked to finish 14th in the Big Ten preseason, they were one of the last three undefeated teams. They wiped the floor with Troy in the First Round to get the monkey off their back, and then doubled down with a win over a tough Vanderbilt team. Both of these teams are elite defensively, and this will likely be a defensive battle. Nebraska’s offense gets the edge here, and they’ll need the shots to keep falling, but that hasn’t been an issue for them yet.
Nebraska ranks top 15 nationally in three-point shooting. Iowa lacks athleticism and the ability to push the ball. Fred Hoiberg will have this Husker team prepared, and he already showed his ability to make quick, concise coaching moves, switching to a zone defense to throw off the Commodores. Maybe a Nebraska team picked 14th in their conference, which had never won a tournament game, is the real Cinderella? It won’t be easy, but Nebraska wins and covers, punching their ticket to the Elite Eight.
Pick: Nebraska -1.5
No. 4 Arkansas vs No. 1 Arizona 9:45
Arkansas vs Arizona sets up to be an exciting matchup. The Razorbacks won the SEC Tournament over Vanderbilt, then cruised past the Rainbow Warriors of Hawaii in the First Round. High Point was trying to cash in on their glass slipper in the Second Round, but Darius Acuff Jr proved to be too much, and Arkansas survived. Acuff has made quite a name for himself this tournament, proving he’s one of the top players in the country.
Arizona won the Big 12 tournament, beating both Houston and Iowa State, who would be No. 2 seeds and are still alive in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats earned their No. 1 seed in the West Region. They took down the LIU Sharks in the First Round. Utah State hung around in the Second Round, but Arizona ultimately pulled away and arrived here in the Sweet 16.
Arizona is a highly talented team, loaded with NBA talent. But this Arkansas team just has something about it, and the coaching edge goes to John Calipari. They took down one of the toughest conferences in college basketball, and Arizona has struggled defensively against superstars. Darius Acuff needs to take this game over and make it a high-paced, high-scoring game. I don’t know if it’ll be enough to pull off the upset, but the Razorbacks will at least keep it close.
Pick: Arkansas +7.5
No. 3 Illinois vs No. 2 Houston 10:05
The Big Ten has six of the 16 teams left in this year’s tournament, proving what an elite conference it is. The Illini had a tough stretch to close out the regular season and only lasted one game in the Big Ten Tournament. But they’ve taken care of business through two rounds when it matters most. They dismantled No. 14 Penn in the First Round by 35-points. Then handled No. 11 VCU by 21 in the Second Round.
Houston lost their last three games against ranked opponents in the regular season and stumbled into the postseason, where it once again lost to Arizona. Once they reached the big dance, like their opponent, Illinois, the Cougars had few problems. They also won by 30+ against No. 15 Idaho, and then a No. 10 Texas A&M team that should have been a challenge showed no signs of life as Houston again won by 30+.
This game is similar for Illinois, shoot, shoot, shoot. The Illini are 16-1 on the season when they shoot 45% or better from beyond the arc. Houston is just 2-4 when the opposing team shoots better than 40%. Illinois also carries the size advantage in this game. It’ll be a late one, with the 9:05 tipoff in the central time zone, and Illinois should be able to wear down the Cougars defensively. I’ve got Illinois coming out on top in this game, which means they’ll cover along the way.
Pick: Illinois +3.5
