NASCAR heads to the “Track Too Tough To Tame” this weekend at Darlington Raceway in Darlington, South Carolina. It’s another new track type from what we’ve been to thus far in 2026, and the first trip here in 2026. When they return later in the year, it’ll be the first race of the reborn “Chase for the Cup.” Let’s dive into this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway.
It’s upped horsepower for the first time here in the NextGen era. The cup cars will be cranked up to 750 horsepower, as we saw two weeks ago at Phoenix. There, it worked like a charm, delivering one of the best races in recent Phoenix history. The speculation for Darlington is that it will create heavy tire wear, and up to four seconds in tire fall off at the end of a run. We should be in for a thriller for Sunday’s race. Justin Allgaier will once again be filling in for Alex Bowman, and will also do so at Martinsville and Bristol, giving Bowman another month to recover from his Vertigo symptoms.
Odds to Win Goodyear 400
Denny Hamlin +550
Kyle Larson +600
William Byron +700
Chase Briscoe +700
Tyler Reddick +700
Ryan Blaney +850
Christopher Bell +1000
Bubba Wallace +2200
Chase Elliott +2500
Joey Logano +2500
Ty Gibbs +2500
Ross Chastain +3000
Chris Buescher +3000
Brad Keselowski +3500
Carson Hocevar +4000
Kyle Busch +4000
Erik Jones +4000
Josh Berry +5000
Justin Allgaier +5000
Austin Cindric +6000
Ryan Preece +6000
Connor Zilisch +12500
John Hunter Nemechek +12500
Daniel Suarez +20000
AJ Allmendinger +20000
Austin Dillon +20000
Zane Smith +20000
Noah Gragson +25000
Michael McDowell +25000
Shane Van Gisbergen +35000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +35000
Todd Gilliland +35000
Cole Custer +50000
Ty Dillon +100000
Riley Herbst +100000
Cody Ware +100000
Timmy Hill +100000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway
Chase Elliott Top 10 (+100)
Chase Elliott is coming off a strong second-place run at Las Vegas and looking to build on that here. He’s already one of, if not the most consistent driver in the series. You don’t expect domination from Elliott, but you always expect him to have a solid run. Elliott has the second-best average finish (9.8) at Darlington over the last six races to Denny Hamlin (9.3). Add in the extra tire wear and handling problems, and it makes me like Elliott even more. A steady veteran who is always reliable. Elliott finished top 11 in four of five races this season. Different styles, different races, always there.
Under 3.5 Chevrolets in the Top 10 (+130)
As much as I love Chase Elliott to finish top 10 this weekend, I don’t feel the same about his Chevy teammates. Darlington has been much more of a Ford and Toyota track of late. In the fall race here, only three Chevrolets scored top 10s. In two of the last four races here, they’ve had four inside of the top 10, but it took uncharacteristic runs from drivers like Corey Lajoie and AJ Allmendinger to get it done.
I fully expect Elliott and Byron to be good here, but it gets sketchy after that. Larson hasn’t finished better than 20th here in the spring race in the NextGen era. Ross Chastain is on a milk carton after Las Vegas where he’d previously looked good. There’s no Alex Bowman, and after that, the Chevy camp gets weak quickly. Does one of Larson, Chastain, or Busch get a top 10? Sure. But two of them? It’s just hard to see. Especially when you factor in all four Gibbs cars, two 23XI cars, Ryan Blaney, and at least two of the RFK cars, that should be good. Give me the under.
Tyler Reddick to Win (+700)
My friends at Win the Race ran 200k simulations of this race, and Tyler Reddick was the top dog. He won 18.1% of the time, putting his “fair value” at +453. Reddick started the year on fire with his record-setting three wins to open the year. You add in the expected tire wear this weekend, and Reddick is immediately one of the top names that comes to mind. He’s finished top four in the last two races at Darlington, and has also done so in five of the eight NextGen races here, including both races in the Richard Childress Racing #8 car. Reddick has room to let it all hang out and push hard to go for it, with a huge points lead. He’s simply too good to pass up on this weekend at Darlington.
Fueled by WIN THE RACE‘s Professional NASCAR Strategy Platform
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