Let the Madness commence! We’ve had our warmup with the Four Four, but the true magic starts on Thursday! Take the day off work, call in sick, whatever you have to do. Game 1 tips off at 12:15 ET, and the action is nonstop through the final tip of the day at 9:10 ET. 16 thrilling, heart-stopping first-round games where dreams are realized, and hearts are broken. Let’s make First Round picks for all 16 March Madness games on Thursday.
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*All times Eastern
No. 9 TCU vs No. 8 Ohio State 12:15
The madness kicks off with what should be a thriller right off the bat. Two equally matched teams, both of which started the season slowly and built themselves into winners deserving of a spot in the dance. Ohio State, led by all-time leading scorer and senior Bruce Thornton, make 49% of their shots, and shoot 78% from the line. TCU fouls 18 times per game on average, and Ohio State is undefeated when they make 18 or more free throws per game. That’s what this will come down to, and you win games at the line.
Pick: Ohio State -2.5 + First Half Under 72.5
No. 13 Troy vs No. 4 Nebraska 12:40
The second game on the docket should be a solid one as well. A lot of people are calling Nebraska frauds, and Troy is a popular upset pick. Nebraska is the only power conference school in history to not have won an NCAA Tournament game. Fred Hoiberg has built something special in Lincoln, and this is the best chance the Cornhuskers have to get rid of that stat. Playing in Oklahoma City, this will feel like a home game for the Huskers, whose fan base is traveling big time to see history. The Huskers’ losses all came to strong Big Ten teams. No upsets yet, Huskers roll.
Pick: Nebraska -12.5 + First Half Under 65.5
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No. 11 South Florida vs No. 6 Louisville 1:30
Louisville comes in as the more battle-tested team, while South Florida is the team on fire. These head coaches have faced before, and USF’s Bryan Hodgson, at the time with Arkansas State, beat Kenny Payne and Louisville by 12. Now the Bulls are on an 11-game win streak and come into this tournament on an absolute heater. Their offense is high octane, and this is one of my teams on Cinderella watch. Give me the Bulls to cover, and they might just win this one.
Pick: USF +5.5 + First Half Under 81.5
2026 NCAA Tournament March Madness: Cinderella
No. 12 High Point vs No. 5 Wisconsin 1:50
Wisconsin has lost five consecutive times in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, something they hope to overcome this weekend against High Point. The High Point Panthers are on an impressive 14-game win streak. Their offense is hot, averaging 90.3 points per game, while their defense is on point, allowing only 70.3 points per game. It’ll be key for High Point to make this a quick-paced game and throw Wisconsin out of rhythm. If they can do that, they’ll not only be in this game, they’ll be a live dog with a shot at taking down the Badgers.
Pick: High Point +10.5 + First Half Under 78.5
No. 16 Sienna vs No. 1 Duke 2:50
Our first look at the #1 overall seed in the entire tournament, the Duke Blue Devils. They’ll face the Sienna Saints, who might just need a Saintly intervention in this one. Sienna was a surprise March Madness team. After finishing third in the MEAC, they won the conference tournament and earned the automatic bid. They played one Power 4 school and lost to Indiana 81-60 back in December. If you are looking for the big No. 16 over No.1 upset, this isn’t the game. After a couple of close thrillers, I think Duke will dismantle the Saints, as any good Blue Devil would.
Pick: Duke -27.5 + First Half Under 64.5
No. 12 McNeese State vs No. 5 Vanderbilt 3:15
Vanderbilt started 16-0 before getting cold down the stretch. They quickly got hot again, running through the SEC Tournament, including taking down the defending champion Florida Gators, and won the SEC Tournament Championship. McNeese will be a popular pick, as a No. 12 seed last year, they upset No. 5, Clemson. However, the physicality and toughness this Commodores team plays with is just going to be too much for McNeese to handle. Vanderbilt cruises past another foe, one much easier than those they faced in the SEC Tournament.
Pick: Vanderbilt -11.5 + First Half Under 70.5
No. 14 North Dakota State vs No. 3 Michigan State 4:05
North Dakota State is no stranger to success in the Men’s NCAA Tournament. They made a Cinderella-style run in 2014 to the Sweet 16 and won in the first round in 2015. But the football powerhouse is back, and looking to make some noise once again. Michigan State comes out of the tough Big Ten, the best basketball conference in the nation. If anyone knows how to win tournament games, it’s Tom Izzo. This won’t be your high-flying offensive game. This one will be a down-and-dirty physical, tough basketball game. The Bison will keep it close, but I think Michigan State’s talent wins out at least for the victory and moving on to the Round of 32. Bison cover, Spartans win.
Pick: North Dakota State +16.5 + First Half Under 67.5
No. 13 Hawaii vs No. 4 Arkansas 4:25
This is an interesting game on many levels. Hawaii was quietly a good team all year, winning 24 games, then they cruised through the Big West Conference Tournament and punched their ticket to the Madness. Arkansas has an electric offense under John Calipari, but an atrocious defense. That’s where things could get interesting. Hawaii likes to slow the game down and work the ball inside. If they can control the clock and the game speed, they can hang with the Razorbacks. Hawaii is a great rebounding team, and those second-chance points may be the difference. Will the Rainbow Warriors be another team that embarrasses coach Cal in March? Maybe not, but they’ll come close enough to cover.
Pick: Hawaii +15.5 + First Half Under 76.5
No. 11 VCU vs No. 6 North Carolina 6:50
VCU comes in as a team very much deserving of a berth in March. They likely would have made it even if they didn’t win the A-10, but for the third time in four years, they did just that. North Carolina already wasn’t having a season up to their normal standards, and then they lost their star, Caleb Wilson. Wilson, unfortunately, injured his hand in practice. With Wilson, this team beat Duke. Without Wilson, their ceiling seems much lower. Without Wilson, it changes the dynamics of this Tar Heels team. VCU is a deep, balanced team that’ll give its best to North Carolina. The Tar Heels are on upset alert here. With Wilson, it would have been a much different story. Give me the Rams.
Pick: VCU +2.5 + First Half Under 72.5
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No. 16 Howard vs No. 1 Michigan 7:10
The Howard Bison won their play-in game Tuesday night over the UMBC Retrievers to earn their opportunity to play on Thursday evening. It’s a tall task, taking on the No. 1 seed in the Midwest region in the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan breezed through the season, only to be upset by Purdue in the Big Ten Championship game. Now, with their real goal on the line, it’s time to see how the Wolverines respond. 31 points is a big number, but this Michigan team is elite. They are outstanding on defense, and their offense is explosive. It was great for Howard to pick up their win on Tuesday, but Michigan will pull away with this one late.
Pick: Michigan -30.5 + First Half Under 71.5
No. 11 Texas vs No. 6 BYU 7:25
The Texas Longhorns were the other victorious team on Tuesday night as they defeated the North Carolina State Wolfpack. It was just the second win in the last eight games for the Longhorns. BYU went 5-5 down the stretch without guard Richie Saunders, who suffered an ACL injury in February. But they won games over Iowa State and Texas Tech during that time. They also kept it close with Houston and Arizona. BYU is led by star forward AJ Dybantsa, who is in the mix for an NBA Lottery pick. Ultimately, behind Dybansta’s play, I think BYU gets up for this game as they did in big spots against Iowa State and Texas Tech.
Pick: BYU -1.5 + First Half Under 75.5
No. 10 Texas A&M vs No. 7 St. Mary’s 7:35
This game features two very opposite teams. St Mary’s boasts three players listed over seven feet tall. Texas A&M, on the other hand, is one of the smallest teams in the tournament. They’ll need to get it done from downtown, keep the pace up, and do their best to minimize the play of the big men in the paint. This Texas A&M team wasn’t supposed to be here, and did an amazing job getting here. The size and strength of this Gaels team will just prove to be too much.
Pick: St. Mary’s -2.5 + First Half Under 68.5
No. 14 Penn vs No. 3 Illinois 9:25
Fran McCaffery has this Penn team in a good spot in his first season. The former Iowa coach is no stranger to the tournament or coaching against Big Ten teams like Illinois. This Illinois team is a good one and is poised to possibly make a strong run in the tournament. Penn should be able to keep this competitive, but ultimately, Illinois hangs on to advance to the next round.
Pick: Penn +24.5 + First Half Under 71.5
No. 9 St. Louis vs No. 8 Georgia 9:45
Tired of tough physical slow defensive games? This nighttime showdown should cure that for you. These are two high flying fast paced teams. This game will entirely come down to who goes faster, and executes best while they do it. Georgia ranks #1 in fast break points, while St. Louis checks in at #4. Both team defenses are elite as well, sparking their fast paced fast breaks. We’re still going to take the first half under, but when that hits, might be a great time to grab the live game over! In a matchup this close, give me the underdog.
Pick: St. Louis +2.5 + First Half Under 79.5
No. 14 Kennesaw St vs No. 3 Gonzaga 10:00
Kennesaw State had an average regular season, finishing just sixth in the Conference USA standings. Then they went on a March style run through the conference tournament, taking it down and grabbing the automatic bid. Unfortunately for them, they get the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Mark Few in the first round. The Bulldogs are elite at defending the three point shot, which Kennesaw State lives and dies by. Gonzaga has every advantage here, elite depth and coaching. It’s been a fun run for the Owls here, but it’ll quickly go up in flames Thursday night.
Pick: Gonzaga -20.5 + First Half Under 72.5
No. 15 Idaho vs No. 2 Houston 10:10
The night cap for the first full day of madness has the Vandals of Idaho taking in Houston. Idaho is a rebuild story for the ages, winning one single game just five years ago. Now, they are in the in the dance for the first time in 31 years. And, they did it all without their best player who got injured in the first game of the year. But, they run into a buzz saw that is the Houston Cougars. Houston made it to the title game last season, and is back for revenge this year. We’ll see what their long term tournament run looks like, but this game isn’t close talent wise, and the Cougars should roll here.
Pick: Houston -23.5 + First Half Under 64.5
