The 2025 NCAA Tournament was coined “Chalk Madness” and “March Midness.” Each 1, 2, 3, and 4-seed won their first round game, and collectively they did it by the largest point differential in NCAAT history. They don’t call it “March Madness” for nothing. If you’re hoping for standard deviation to slam the laptop shut on all the spreadsheet nerds picking the top seeds in the First Round, this article is for you.
Only six lower-seeded teams beat the higher seeded games in the 32 first round matchups in 2025. That has happened in just six total NCAA Tournaments in history. In this article last year, my first round upset picks went 2-3 SU. That is not too bad when I look back on it now.
March Madness Upsets To Bet In NCAA Tournament First Round
(+580, +11.5) Hofstra vs Alabama
Back in 2020, Hofstra won the CAA Tournament punched their ticket to the Big Dance, but the NCAA Tournament was cancelled. Now, in 2026, Speedy Claxton has officially coached his alma mater back into the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2001 when Jay Wright was the head coach. The Pride have won 11 of their last 12 games entering the tourney and already own wins against two power conference teams this season.
Of the 68 NCAAT teams, the Pride play at the 9th slowest adjusted tempo per KenPom, Alabama plays at the fastest. Hofstra has the 3rd best 2-point percentage defense in the nation; no buckets around the rim come free. The Crimson Tide will need to hit a lot of their jumpshots in order to beat the Pride.
Alabama shoots 3-point attempts in abundance (1st in 3PA/FGA) and 41.4% of their points scored come from behind the arc (most nationally). Point guard Labaron Philon is a star. He scores 21.7 PPG and shoots 40.2% from deep, consider him the Tide’s “Batman”. However, Philon’s “Robin”, Aden Holloway (Bama’s best 3-point shooter hitting at 43.8%), is currently not expected to play due to legal issues.
It’s a tall task but Hofstra has the recipe to defeat Alabama with a pair of great guards of their own: Cruz Davis (20.2 PPG, 4.7 AST, 3.7 REB) and Preston Edmead (15.9 PPG, 4.4 AST, 3.5).
Hofstra ML +580 (FanDuel)
(+188, +5.5) South Florida vs Louisville
One of the best stories in the First Round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament will take place in Buffalo, New York. Bryan Hodgson, one of the best up-and-coming coaches in college basketball, is from Western New York. Hodgson’s father has never watched his son live as a head coach before due to complications with dementia. That will change on Thursday when Hodgson will coach in front of his pops for the first time in his career.
South Florida isn’t just a feel-good story. They have real athletes and power conference transfers on the roster. For matchup purposes, the most notable player is Bulls’ star Izaiyah Nelson. The 6-foot-10 big man is averaging 15.7 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 3 stocks per game. Louisville has an interior defense that can be exposed, especially because of its lack of depth.
South Florida ML +188 (FanDuel)
(+800, +14.5) California Baptist vs Kansas
Kansas has a slam dunk lottery pick in Darryn Peterson. California Baptist won’t be able to keep him from getting his. However, the Lancers can stay within striking distance if Dominique Daniels Jr, the Lancers’s star point guard, can do some legit damage of his own. Daniels averages 23 PPG and is the energizer bunny of CBU’s offense, every play runs through him.
The key matchup to watch is the battle on the glass. Kansas is a very poor rebounding team that also lacks depth in the front court behind Flory Bidunga. Cal Baptist is ranked inside the Top 50 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The Lancers have four guys on the roster listed at 6-foot-10 or taller, and they all rebound super well.
Cal Baptist ML +800 (FanDuel)
(+118, +2.5) VCU vs North Carolina
This one is a yapper, but if you are one that would enjoy playing heel in front of a crowd of Tar Heel fans, this is for you. Phil Martelli Jr is in his first season as head coach at VCU. Since January 14th, the Rams have won 16 of 17 games.
Caleb Wilson, North Carolina’s star forward and best player, is out for the season due to a thumb injury. UNC has looked vulnerable and is just 5-3 in the eight games Wilson has missed. VCU has a stingy, physical defense, nothing will come easy for the Tar Heels on offense.
VCU ML +118 (BetMGM)
(+890, +15.5) Hawai’i vs Arkansas
Every smart college basketball media member that you listen to has probably mentioned that this is a terrible matchup for Hawai’i because of their patented “no help” defense going up against the best isolation offense in the country. Are they all assuming that Coach Eran Ganot won’t make a slight defensive adjustment when facing Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas, the Razorbacks’ dynamic guard duo?
Hawai’i starts four seniors and has eight guys that play 20 or more minutes per game and average three or more boards per contest. Notoriously, Coach John Calipari’s team has a short bench this season and has been handled on the glass. Although Acuff will probably score +20 points, the Rainbow Warriors have the depth, positional size, and rebounding skills to mess with the Hogs a little bit.
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