March Madness starts tonight with the first two First Four games and the beginning of the National Invitational Tournament. While this isn’t the college hoops feast that we’re getting on Thursday and Friday, the slate for March 17th has games and we’re here to bet on those games. We’ve dug through the early lines and found three college basketball picks that you’ll want to lock up before games tip off. Let’s get into it.
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for March 17
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 203-173-5
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 19-108
UMBC vs Howard
Start Time: 6:40 PM EST
This is a First Four game of the NCAA tournament and will be played at a neutral site in Dayton, OH.
UMBC enters this game with a 24-8 overall record and a 19-11 mark overall against the spread. Howard comes into this matchup with a 23-10 overall record and a 21-8 mark ATS.
UMBC is currently riding a 12-game winning streak. The Retrievers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10. They’ve also covered in eight of their last nine games played as a favorite.
Howard is 9-1 outight and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Bison are 7-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
Both Howard and UMBC can stay in front of teams on the defensive end, but the Retrievers faced a bit better competition in the America East conference. Howard is 34th in the nation in points per game, while UMBC is 35th.
Howard has athletes, but isn’t a very good shooting team. The Bison are 261st in the nation in shooting percentage on two-point shots. UMBC can make shots all over the floor and have an advantage at the free-throw line.
Rebounding metrics in this matchup are essentially a wash. Howard is better at turning teams over, but UMBC doesn’t hand the ball over often. The Bison can play a bit out of control at times and were 340th in the nation in turnovers allowed.
This matchup essentially comes down to the shooting of UMBC against Howard’s handsy defense. UMBC can make shots, and Howard tends to rely on second chances and turnovers. The Bison are also used to playing turnover-prone MEAC squads. Both teams should have fans in attendance, so there really shouldn’t be an advantage in terms of the crowd. Let’s lay the point with UMBC and take one of the hottest teams in the nation to stay hot. Lock up UMBC to survive and advance to the field of 64.
Best Bet: UMBC -1.5
UNC-Wilmington at Yale
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST
This is a first round game in the NIT. This will be played on campus at Yale.
UNC-Wilmington enters this game with a 26-6 overall record and a 15-15 mark ATS. The Seahawks are 11-2 on the road and 7-6 ATS away from Wilmington.
Yale comes into this matchup with a 24-6 overall record and a 12-16 mark ATS. The Bulldogs are 10-2 overall at home and 4-6 ATS in New Haven.
UNC-Wilmington is 7-3 outright in their last 10 games, and 7-3 ATS over that stretch. Yale has won eight of its last 10 games played, but is only 3-7 ATS over that stretch.
Yale is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, but UNC-Wilmington is fifth in the nation in three-point shooting percentage against. The Seahawks can really defend the perimeter. UNC-Wilmington is also 97th in the nation in three-point shooting, but Yale is 243rd in three-point percentage against. The Seahawks have an advantage in athleticism, and that should really help on the defensive end. UNC-Wilmington also has a clear advantage on the boards.
Both teams play at a slow pace, but UNC-Wilmington is the better defensive team, better rebounding team, and should find open looks against a Yale defense that has looked leaky at times. Yale has also been the opposite of an ATS darling over the past month. The Bulldogs let teams hang around against them. We’re getting a more athletic team with clear advantages with 5.5 points. Lock up the Seahawks to stay within the number.
Best Bet: UNC-Wilmington +5.5
St. Thomas at Seattle
Start Time: 10:00 PM EST
This is a first round game in the NIT. This will be played on campus at Seattle.
St. Thomas enters this game with a 24-9 overall mark and an 8-6 record on the road. The Tommies are 15-15 overall ATS and 8-6 ATS away from St. Paul.
Seattle comes into this matchup with a 20-13 overall record and a 13-4 mark at home. The Redhawks are 13-18 overall ATS and 8-7 ATS in Seattle.
St. Thomas is 7-3 outright in their last 10 games and 7-3 ATS over that stretch. The Tommies are 2-2 ATS in their last four road games. Seattle is 6-4 outright in their last 10 and 5-5 ATS over that stretch. The Redhawks are 3-2 ATS in their last five home games.
This game is a true clash of styles. St. Thomas likes to run and score, while Seattle likes to drag it into the mud and defend. St. Thomas likes to do its work in the paint. The Tommies are the best team in the nation in shooting percentage on two-point shots. However, Seattle is 46th in the nation in shooting percentage against on two-pointers.
Neither team really has a clear advantage on the boards, but Seattle averages 4.8 blocks per game. that’s 22nd in the nation. Seattle is also 10th in the nation in opponent turnovers generated.
Seattle also gets to play this in the Redhawk Center. Their home floor is small space with the fans right on top of the court. Outside of The Jungle in Auburn, The Crack house in Seattle is about the most hostile environment we’ll see in the NIT.
Given the stylistic differences, the location, and Seattle’s ability to muck up games, the advantages point towards the Redhawks. The Tommies may struggle to get into the paint and they’re not a great shooting team from outside. Seattle will turn this into a grind, and pick up an ugly win against a team that plays a pretty style. Lock up Seattle to win and cover as a short favorite.
Best Bet: Seattle -2
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis of every college basketball game in the 2025-26 season, tune in to The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
