One of the best times of the year is the few days between Selection Sunday and the start of the March Madness tournament. Filling out your brackets, trying to pick the correct upsets, hoping your champion doesn’t get bounced early. Let’s take a look at the keys to a good bracket for your March Madness pool.
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There’s seemingly no good way to build a perfect bracket, as it’s literally never been done before! So no need to fret, stick to some basic principles, and let’s shoot for winning that office bracket competition, or take down the family for year-round bragging rights.
Pick the Right Champion
The way most bracket challenges are scored, the meat of your points comes from the later rounds. So not having the champion, or at least someone who gets close, is detrimental to your chances of winning. It’s fun to pick your favorite team, or the team you think could be Cinderella. But the numbers just don’t agree. Since 1985, when the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams, a No. 1 seed has won the championship 65% of the time (26 of 40 tournaments).
Since the field grew to 68 teams in 2011, that number has increased to 71.2%, with a No. 1 seed winning 10 of the last 14 titles. Simply put, the favorites overwhelmingly end up as the champions. That being said, only twice have we had all No. 1 seeds in the Final Four, last year being one of those times. So it’s all about balance at the top, your best chance is one of the top seeds to win. But don’t make it all chalk! The lowest seeds to ever win were a No. 8 who won once, a No 7 who won once, as well as a No. 6 who won once.
Best Championship Odds:
Duke +300
Michigan +360
Arizona +390
Florida +750
Houston +1000
Iowa State +1500
Illinois +1900
UConn +2500
Purdue +2500
Popular Play: Michigan
Duke and Michigan are going to be the overwhelming favorites in most brackets. These have been the best two teams all season long. Personally, I’ve been on the Florida bandwagon and they’ll be one of my favorite plays. But it’s hard to look past this Michigan team. They have height, speed, athleticism, and physicality. They lost in the Big Ten title game, a perfect wake-up call that they are beatable. I like the Blue to get there.
Contrarian Play: Iowa State
I absolutely love this Iowa State basketball team. They are fun to watch, and aren’t afraid to take a team to the woodshed for an old school whooping. They are still a No. 2 seed, so they fit all the criteria of a team likely to get there. The Cyclones are led by a couple of experienced senior guards.
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March Madness: 2026 NCAA Tournament Keys to a Good Bracket
Nail Some Upsets
Upsets are an important key to your bracket success. However, it’s more about quality than quantity. Upsets will happen, that’s the “Madness” part of March Madness. But as you can see by the numbers above, fewer huge upsets really happen in the long run. The No. 12 over the No. 5 is an upset that seems to happen every year. No. 12 seeds have upset No. 5 seeds 57 times since 1985. That makes them 57-103. It’s happened more often lately, six times over the last four years. So don’t go crazy picking every No. 12 to upset a No. 5. Pick one that seems like the right matchup, don’t just do it to do it. Keep in mind, most people will pick an upset. There’s a good chance they are wrong; if they do, the numbers would suggest it’s better not to pick a 12-5 upset.
The key to picking upsets is balance. If you are trying to take down a massive tournament on ESPN, you probably need to pick more upsets, looking for variance to set you apart from the millions of others entering. If it’s just you and 50 people from the office, let them have their variance and be able to brag about getting lucky picking a No. 15 over No. 2 upset. We’re playing the long game and going for the war, not the battle.
Upset to Take in 2026: No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech
I have my eyes on the #12 seed Akron Zips as they take on the #5-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders. I just can’t help myself. If I’m taking a No. 12 over a No. 5, this is the one. Texas Tech just suffered the loss of star forward JT Toppin and went 3-3 over its final six games. Texas Tech has relied heavily on the deep ball with Toppin gone. If those three aren’t falling, it could quickly spell trouble. For Akron, this is an experienced team, a huge advantage in March. The Zips can seemingly score at will, and Tavari Johnson is a name you should get familiar with quickly!
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Get the Final Four Right
As we talked about before, you get more points later in the bracket than earlier. So while that No. 15 over No. 2 feels great the rare times it cashes, not having a No. 2 for each of the next 4-5 rounds can be highly detrimental to your chances of winning. Remember, only twice has the Final Four been all No. 1 seeds. So don’t completely chalk it out. But they get there more often than anyone else. 66 times the No.1 has gotten to the Final Four since 1985. As you’d expect, it drops drastically from there. 32 times for No. 2 seeds, 17 times for the No. 3 seed, and just 15 times for the No. 4 seed.
Everyone else is under 10 times, with no No. 12 or lower ever making the Final Four. In total, “Cinderella” is more of a myth than she is real in March. Six No. 11 seeds have been to the Final Four. 1986 LSU, 2006 George Mason, 2011 VCU, 2018 Loyola Chicago, UCLA in 2021, and NC State in 2024. In 2016, Syracuse became the first No. 10 seed to make a Final Four. Of course, we all remember each of these teams vividly. But, nailing which teams it will be exactly right, the odds simply just aren’t in your favor. Ideally, you probably want at least two No. 1 seeds in your Final Four, and picking anything lower than a No. 4 isn’t ideal.
If you’d like even more college basketball picks for the South Region, be sure to check out the College Experience Podcast. The guys are dropping plenty of episodes to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
