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Can you believe we only have a few days left until Selection Sunday? It feels like college hoops season just started, and we’re already about to have a massive bracket. However, we still have a few slates to get through until we get to analyzing tournament seeds. We’ve found three college basketball picks for today’s action that you’ll want to have on your card. Let’s get into it.
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for March 12
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 198-169-5
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 19-105
St. Bonaventure vs Dayton
Start Time: 2:00 PM EST
This game is in the quarterfinal round of the Atlantic-10 conference tournament, and it’s being played at a neutral site in Pittsburgh, PA.
St. Bonaventure enters this game with a 16-16 overall record and a 11-20 mark overall against the spread. Dayton comes into this matchup with a 21-10 overall mark and a 14-17 record overall ATS.
These two teams played twice against each other in conference play. Both teams won outright on their own floor, but St. Bonaventure covered both games as an underdog.
The angle here is simple. St. Bonaventure is in the top-25 in three-point shooting this year, and Dayton is 268th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage allowed. The Flyers have struggled to defend the perimeter all year. The Bonnies have already played twice on this floor, and they get to play a softer defense than they played against in the game with George Mason. St. Bonaventure only shot 27% from deep against GMU after shooting 54% from three-point range against LaSalle. They’re due for some positive regression and they’ve played twice on this floor.
The Bonnies were good defensively against George Mason, and the rebounding metrics favor St. Bonaventure against Dayton. Dayton has failed to cover twice against St. Bonaventure. This is simply a bad matchup for these Flyers. Let’s lock up St. Bonaventure to keep this game within the number.
Best Bet: St. Bonaventure +7.5
Ole Miss at Alabama
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST
This game is in the quarterfinal round of the SEC conference tournament, and it’s being played at a neutral site in Nashville, TN.
Ole Miss enters this matchup with a 13-19 overall record and an 11-20 mark ATS. Alabama comes into this game with a 23-8 overall mark and a 14-17 overall record ATS.
These two teams only played once in conference play in Oxford, MS. The Crimson Tide won by 19 points and covered a 6.5-point spread.
Ole Miss has won twice in two days against Texas and Georgia, while Alabama hasn’t played in almost a week. This is where the bottom falls out for Chris Beard and his Rebels. There’s a reason Ole Miss played back-to-back games as a 5.5-point underdog and is now a 9.5-point underdog.
Alabama plays at the fourth-fastest pace in the nation. If the Crimson Tide dictates the pace, they’ll roll an Ole Miss team in its third game in three days. The Crimson Tide has the best scoring offense in the nation, and they’re a much better shooting team than Ole Miss. Alabama gets criticized for allowing points, but they’re not a terrible defensive team. The Crimson Tide rolls in this spot. Lock up Alabama to win and cover the beefy spread.
Best Bet: Alabama -9.5
Nevada at Utah State
Start Time: 9:30 PM EST
This game is in the semifinal round of the Mountain West conference tournament, and it’s being played at a neutral site in Las Vegas, NV.
Nevada enters this matchup with a 21-11 overall record and a 17-15 overall mark ATS. Utah State comes into this game with a 25-6 overall record and a 12-18 ATS record.
These two teams played twice in conference play this year. Both teams split by winning on their own floor, but Nevada covered both games as an underdog. Nevada has covered both its conference tournament games, while Utah State covered a beefy spread against UNLV in its conference tournament opener.
Nevada comes into this game with a clear advantage from beyond the arc. The Wolfpack have shot 36.5% from deep this year. Utah State is 191st in three-point shooting percentage allowed this year. Nevada is also solid defensively, all over the floor, with a clear advantage in the paint and on the boards.
The Wolfpack had a scare against Grand Canyon and battled back yesterday. Nevada has played Utah State tough twice this year, and this is another game played in the Wolfpack’s home state. The Wolfpack should have more of the crowd than the Aggies. Let’s lock up Nevada to keep this one close and stay within the 6.5-point spread.
Nevada +6.5
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis of every college basketball game in the 2025-26 season, tune in to The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
