Only four days of college hoops action remain until we get to Selection Sunday. Conference tournament season is winding down, but there are still tickets to the Big Dance that need to be punched. We’ve gone through today’s slate of games, crunched the numbers, worked the angles, and found three college basketball picks that you’ll want to have on your card today. Let’s get into it.
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for March 12
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 195-166-5
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 19-103
St. Bonaventure vs. George Mason
Start Time: 2:00 PM EST
This game is in the second round of the Atlantic-10 conference tournament, and it’s being played at a neutral site in Pittsburgh, PA.
St. Bonaventure enters this game with a 16-16 overall record and a 11-20 mark overall against the spread. The Bonnies just won against LaSalle in the first round as a 7.5-point favorite.
George Mason comes into this matchup with a 23-8 overall mark and a 16-14 record overall ATS. This is George Mason’s first game since March 7th.
These two teams played twice during conference play, with George Mason winning and covering as a short favorite both times.
George Mason is simply a bad matchup for the Bonnies. The Patriots can do damage on the inside on offense, and they can really defend all over the court. St. Bonaventure can shoot, but struggled to get clean looks in both games against George Mason this year. The Bonnies are also a bottom-50 team in three-point percentage against. St. Bonaventure nearly dropped 100 on LaSalle in the first round, but they’ll struggle to get the same spacing against a GMU defense that limits quality shots.
George Mason also has a clear advantage on the boards, and they don’t turn the ball over often. The Bonnies had a get-up spot against a team they lost to in conference play, but this George Mason team is simply more functionally athletic and too potent on the offensive end for a team that has struggled to stay with opponents. Lock up George Mason to win and cover today.
Best Bet: George Mason -3.5
UCF vs. Arizona
Start Time: 3:00 PM EST
This game is in the quarterfinal round of the Big 12 Conference tournament, and it’s being played at a neutral site in Kansas City, MO.
UCF enters this game with a 21-10 overall record and a 16-15 mark ATS. Arizona comes into this matchup with a 29-2 overall mark and an 18-13 record ATS.
These two teams played once this year. Arizona won by seven points at UCF, but the very Golden Knights covered as a 9.5-point underdog. This is UCF’s second game on the glass floor, while Arizona has yet to play in the Big 12 Conference tournament.
The handicap here is simple. Arizona is already in the tournament and is likely a one-seed no matter what happens in the conference tournament. The Wildcats don’t need to go all out for this game and would likely rather survive and advance with everyone healthy. However, UCF is technically a bubble team. A strong showing in the conference tournament or a conference tournament victory would assure their place in the field of 68. The shiny Golden Knights have also played a game on the weird glass floor and have had a chance to get used to it. Other teams have complained about the surface and the lights, and it could give UCF an advantage here.
Also, this line is ridiculously high. UCF has already covered against Arizona as a 9.5-point dog, and now the Golden Knights are catching an extra seven points? UCF isn’t great on the defensive end, but they can score with most teams in the country, even Arizona. They need a great game from deep range to stay close, and they have an advantage with already playing on the glass surface.
UCF also has the better free-throw shooting team and will need to make every attempt count here. It could be a little sweaty, but let’s take UCF to keep this game within 16.5 points.
Best Bet: UCF +16.5
Rhode Island vs. Duquesne
Start Time: 5:00 PM EST
This game is in the second round of the Atlantic-10 conference tournament, and it’s being played at a neutral site in Pittsburgh, PA.
Rhode Island enters this matchup with a 16-15 overall mark and a 13-18 record ATS this year. Duquesne comes into this game with a 17-14 overall record and a 12-17 mark ATS this season.
These two teams played twice this year, with each team winning and covering at home. Rhode Island limped to the finish with a 3-7 mark in its last 10 games played. The Rams only won at home over the final month of the season. Duquesne ended on a 6-4 run, but picked up big road wins at George Mason and at St. Bonaventure.
These two teams know each other well, and they’re both playing their first game in the A-10 tournament. Rhode Island has struggled to find its footing away from home, while this is essentially a home game for Duquesne. The Dukes aren’t playing on campus, but they’re from Pittsburgh, and their fans should show up.
From a metrics perspective, this is essentially a wash. Duquesne is much better offensively and much worse on the defensive end. Rhode Island isn’t a very good shooting team, but they are better on defense. Both teams are capable on the boards and are able to generate turnovers. This is a case of the line telling us what’s going to happen. Rhode Island will struggle on a not-so-neutral floor, and Duquesne will cover as a short favorite. Lock up the Dukes in this spot.
Best Bet: Duquesne -2
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis of every college basketball game in the 2025-26 season, tune in to The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
