There are only five days left in conference tournament season. Then we get one massive bracket and a few smaller ones, and then it’s the long dark summer. However, there are still tickets to the dance that need to be punched and games we can bet on. We’ve dug through today’s slate and found three college basketball picks that you’ll want to lock up. Let’s get into it.
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for March 11
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 195-166-5
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 19-103
Delaware State at Morgan State
Start Time: 6:00 PM EST
This game is in the quarterfinals for the MEAC tournament, and it’s being played at a neutral site in Norfolk, VA.
Delaware State enters this game with a 7-22 overall record and an 8-17 mark overall against the spread. Morgan State comes in this matchup with a 14-15 overall mark and a 15-11 overall record ATS.
These two teams played twice this year, with Morgan State winning and covering at home and away. The Bears have won six of the last 10 overall matchups head-to-head with Delaware State.
Delaware State might have the worst offense in the nation this year. The Hornets averaged under 60 points per game this season, and they’re in the bottom-20 in most shooting metrics. Morgan State isn’t very good, but they’re a capable MEAC squad. They can score points and aren’t woeful on defense. The Bears can defend the perimeter well, but Delaware State might be the worst team in the nation beyond the arc. Morgan State is simply the better side and is capable of playing better basketball. Lock up the Bears to win and cover as a short favorite.
Best Bet: Morgan State -2
San Jose State at Boise State
Start Time: 11:30 PM EST
This game is a first-round game for the Mountain West Conference tournament, and it’s being played at a neutral site in Las Vegas, NV.
San Jose State enters this game with an 8-23 overall mark and a 14-16 record overall ATS this year. Boise State comes into this matchup with a 20-11 overall record and a 17-12 mark overall ATS.
Boise State won both matchups against San Jose State, but the Spartans managed to cover a 17.5-point spread in Boise. San Jose State is also 6-4 overall ATS against Boise State in their last 10 head-to-head matchups. The Spartans are also 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
San Jose State has injury issues in January and posted some ugly results in conference. However, once they got healthier, they got better, especially against the spread. The metrics here are almost pointless to look at because they’re skewed by San Jose State’s early results.
The Spartans are a chippy bunch that isn’t nearly as bad defensively as their metrics suggest. San Jose State can also shoot enough to stay in this game against a Boise State team that will want to survive and advance. The Spartans are solid from beyond the arc and are a better shooting team than metrics indicate. Let’s take San Jose State and the points. They get up for these games against the Broncos, and this is just too many points for a Mountain West Conference tournament game.
Best Bet: San Jose State +16.5
UC-Davis at UC-Santa Barbara
Start Time: 11:30 PM EST
This game is a first-round game for the Big West Conference tournament, and it’s being played at a neutral site in Henderson, NV.
UC-Davis enters this game with an 18-13 overall record and a 12-17 mark overall ATS. UC-Santa Barbara comes into this matchup with an 18-13 overall record and a 16-13 mark overall ATS.
UC-Davis has been an underdog in six straight matchups against UC-Santa Barbara. The Aggies have won all six outright. UC-Davis doesn’t need the points! Except here in this case. We need the points.
These two teams are remarkably similar from a metrics perspective. The offensive metrics favor UC-Santa Barbara as a better shooting team, and the Gauchos also measure out as slightly better on defense. However, UC-Davis plays at a quicker pace than UC-Santa Barbara does, and it clearly messes with the Gauchos. UCSB doesn’t like to get sped up. Also, UC-Davis is in the top-25 in the nation in turnovers generated by opponents. They play fast and get handsy on defense. Let’s roll with the history, the pace, and the defense of UC-Davis to keep this one close. Lock up the Aggies and the 5.5 points to continue to mess with UC-Santa Barbara in the Big West Conference tournament.
Best Bet: UC-Davis +5.5
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis of every college basketball game in the 2025-26 season, tune in to The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
