March is a beautiful month filled with nonstop basketball! Some teams have National Championship aspirations, with dreams of cutting down the nets. For other teams, it’s hopes of a Cinderella run. Before the Cinderella run can happen, first you have to make the tournament. The thing every kid shooting at their driveway hoop dreams of. “Making the dance.” It’s time to place those “Bubble Bets” for March Madness.
Teams like Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Houston, UConn, Illinois, and many others are locked in. Their main worry is where they’ll be seeded. For Auburn, Cal, Cincinnati, Indiana, and many others, the fight is on just to get the invitation to the big dance. One more big win this weekend could do it, or maybe it will take a run in their respective conference tournaments. But don’t forget, not everyone makes it. That means we get to bet on teams to miss the dance as well, and sorrow becomes our joy.
Indiana to Make the NCAA Tournament (+140)
Indiana has work to do, and it’s really about beating Ohio State on Saturday. After a much-needed blowout against the Minnesota Gophers on Wednesday, I have the Hoosiers on the right side of the bubble. Now, don’t mess it up is the key. If they can go into Columbus on Saturday and take down the Buckeyes, they’ll prove themselves tournament worthy.
Important bubble results from last night:#iubb picked up a dominant win over Minnesota, keeping its place in the mix for an at-large bid.
SMU fell at home to Miami, moving it closer to the cut line, possibly in the last four in.
Texas was destroyed by Arkansas, bringing it…
— Colin McMahon (@ColinMcMahon31) March 5, 2026
Ohio State NOT to Make NCAA Tournament (+390)
This is an interesting one at a juicy price, so I’ll roll the dice. The Buckeyes looked like they’d be out, but, like the Undertaker, they showed they still had some life. A big upset over Purdue, followed by a blowout win over Penn State, seemingly vaulted them back in. But that big game looms large against Indiana on Saturday. A game I have the Hoosiers pulling out. If that happens, and then the Buckeyes get bounced in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, they could quickly see themselves on the outside looking in. At almost 4/1 odds, the path to miss isn’t a hard one, and it’s a bet worth placing.
VCU NOT Make NCAA Tournament (-150)
It would be pretty surprising to see the Rams of Virginia Commonwealth make the tournament this season. They are just 1-5 against quadrant 1 opponents this season. They’ve tried to right the ship, winning 12 of their last 13 games, but it seems it’s too little too late. A win over Dayton on Friday would give them a second-quadrant 1 victory, but I still think they find themselves on the outside looking in. As St Louis grabs the A-10 bid.
Santa Clara to Make NCAA Tournament (-120)
Only one time in the last 13 seasons has the West Coast Conference gotten three teams in. With Gonzaga locked in and Saint Mary’s looking locked in as well, that leaves the Santa Clara Broncos holding their breath. Their win over Oregon State on Saturday was huge, and the Broncos need to do some damage in the WCC Tournament. Ultimately, it’ll be up to the selection committee to decide to put in a third WCC team, but I don’t think this Cinderella’s story is over.
This play by Elijah Mahi for Santa Clara against Gonzaga is my college basketball highlight of the night! What an unbelievable move! pic.twitter.com/WrIY2zUxEX
— The cfb lliason (@realfbllliason) February 15, 2026
California to Make the NCAA Tournament (+550)
Let’s roll the dice on one more long shot. Cal is as low as +240 on some books, but The Score has them listed at +550. I’m the type to always look for a deal, so I’ll bite for the possible return on investment. With a win over Georgia Tech on Wednesday, the Golden Bears have won four of their last five games. They can add another quadrant 1 win if they can beat Wake Forest on Saturday. Then, we’ll need them to show up in the ACC Tournament, but this team still has a fighting chance, so let’s jump on a big number.
