NASCAR heads to the desert in Arizona for the first short track race of the 2026 NASCAR season. Phoenix Raceway is no longer the last track on the schedule, but NASCAR will still visit it twice each season. When we were last here in the fall, Denny Hamlin’s dominance was undercut by a late caution, and Kyle Larson snagged the championship right out of Hamlin’s hands. Let’s dive in and take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Straight Talk Wireless 500 at Phoenix Raceway.
Tyler Reddick completed the previously impossible last week, becoming the first driver in NASCAR history to win the first three races of the year. Don’t look now, but he’s been pretty strong in this spring Phoenix race in the past years. Could he turn it into four wins in a row to open the year? Odds are tight at the top of the board, and a lot of drivers need to score points this week after a lackluster start to the year. We should be in for a good one on this IndyCar/NASCAR double header weekend in Phoenix.
Odds to Win Straight Talk Wireless 500
Ryan Blaney +475
Denny Hamlin +500
Christopher Bell +600
Kyle Larson +700
William Byron +700
Joey Logano +1300
Chase Briscoe +1400
Chase Elliott +1600
Tyler Reddick +1800
Josh Berry +2200
Ross Chastain +2200
Chris Buescher +3000
Brad Keselowski +3000
Carson Hocevar +3000
Connor Zilisch +4000
Kyle Busch +5000
Bubba Wallace +5000
Austin Cindric +6000
Ty Gibbs +6000
Alex Bowman +6000
Ryan Preece +6000
Austin Dillon +8000
Michael McDowell +10000
Daniel Suarez +20000
Noah Gragson +25000
Erik Jones +25000
Shane Van Gisbergen +25000
Todd Gilliland +35000
AJ Allmendinger +35000
John Hunter Nemechek +35000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +35000
Austin Hill +50000
Cole Custer +100000
Ty Dillon +100000
Riley Herbst +100000
Cody Ware +100000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Straight Talk Wireless 500 at Phoenix Raceway
Chase Briscoe Top 10 (+100)
The best bet on the board this weekend is some even money on Chase Briscoe to finish inside the top 10. Briscoe has been strong at this track, picking up his first career win in the spring race here with Stewart-Haas Racing in 2022. His average running position at the spring Phoenix race when he was in that #14 car is 10.02, thanks to my friends at Wintherace.info. He went 3/3, cashing top 10’s in the spring race in that car. Now, he’s in a car that Martin Truex Jr was so good at here. Last spring, he was still figuring out how to race cars this good, his words, not mine. When he figured it out, things really clicked. At comparable tracks, Briscoe finished second at Iowa and World Wide Technology Raceway. I like Briscoe to win (14/1), but even money just to finish top 10 is my bet of the week.
Tyler Reddick Over Kyle Larson (+125)
As mentioned in the open, Tyler Reddick has been strong here in the spring races. That’s not to say Kyle Larson hasn’t been, because Larson has done extremely well here. But I view these drivers on close to the same level, and Reddick has all the momentum and none of the pressure this week. I love backing that at plus money. Reddick was second to Christoper Bell last spring in driver rating and had the best true performance ranking according to Win The Race. The result wasn’t good after he lost power steering while running in second place. In two of the three previous spring races, Reddick placed top three. Let’s ride the momentum train until it runs out of track.
Christopher Bell to Win (+600)
Christopher Bell loves coming to Phoenix in the spring. Each of the last two years, he’s conquered the 1-mile flat track by taking home the win. Last year, Bell led 105 laps, while it took him just 50 in 2024. Even in the fall of 2024, he led 143 laps before a fifth-place finish. Bell has the best driver rating (111) in spring races over the last three years and is second in true performance rank (82.66) on Win The Race. He’s also been lights out at New Hampshire, winning two of the last four there. Bell has also had great performances at Iowa and Gateway, other comparison tracks for Phoenix.
Fueled by WIN THE RACE‘s Professional NASCAR Strategy Platform
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