The NFL win totals dropped and you know I couldn’t just “wait and see.” Absolutely not. I brought on CJ Sullivan from Bottom Line Bombs and we went full sicko mode on next season before free agency even sneezes.
There’s something deeply unwell (complimentary) about betting win totals in February. Rosters aren’t set. Draft picks aren’t drafted. Schedules aren’t scheduled. And yet? We’re firing.
We started in the basement with the 4.5 win tier because that’s where the real chaos lives. CJ jumped on Cardinals over 4.5 early, anticipating that optimism steam will only push that number north. From there, we worked through the messy middle: Jets, Raiders, Titans, Browns. The Browns under conversation got spicy fast. Offensive line concerns, quarterback uncertainty, vibes… not immaculate.
I made the case for Panthers over 6.5 because I believe in growth arcs and occasionally in quarterbacks. We also hit the Falcons, Saints, and Giants tier, which feels like the NFL’s version of “choose your own adventure but everyone’s mid.”
As we climbed the board, we talked about contenders, regression candidates, and how the market overreacts to narratives every single offseason. The key theme? Timing matters. If you like a number, you take it before the herd moves it. Futures betting is basically emotional discipline disguised as math.
Then Producer Ryan hopped on for Extra Holes, where things got appropriately unhinged in a structured way. We also announced new offseason segments, including Ask Smalls Anything, where you can leave a voicemail and I will absolutely answer sports or life questions with the confidence of someone who once bet a preseason under in March.
It’s offseason, but we’re not asleep. We’re early.
