We’ve exited the first round of the Knockout Phase in the 2025-26 Champions League campaign and just 16 teams remain. There have been some shocking upsets leading to some interesting matchups here in the next round. With all the dust settled and the draw for the next round of matchups in the bag, we’re taking a look at some prediction markets on Kalshi. Come see what we cooked up for you all.
Champions League Markets on Kalshi – February 27th
Real Madrid/Manchester City
If we’re getting in on some individual games for the next stage of the tournament, one I like is this game between a pair of historic power houses. While Madrid made it through the last phase without much of a sweat, they still don’t look like they’ve found their footing since sacking Xabi Alonso.
The biggest concern I have at present is their offense. They only managed three goals across both legs against Benfica. And that was after getting familiar with them during Matchday 8 – a game that Benfica took 4-2. They also have looked less than great in La Liga. Their last fixture saw them give one away in stoppage time to middle of the table Osasuna by a score of 2-1.
That lack of offense is going to be particularly hard for them to overcome in this one. Manchester City has played lock down defense all tournament and was one of the few teams who stayed in single digits of goals allowed during the League Phase. They also were able to lock down Real Madrid once already, taking a 2-1 victory in Matchday 6. With the price as low as it currently is, lock in an early win for Manchester City.
UEFA Champions League – Golden Boot
Might it be a little early to call this one? Maybe, but maybe not. With just 16 teams left, Kylian Mbappe leads the field by three goals. With a lead like that, he may be able to coast to another Golden Boot just by scoring another goal or two. However, it’s not just the three goal lead that gives me confidence.
Second to Mbappe is Newcastle’s Anthony Gordon, who has netted 10 during the campaign. However, Newcastle finds themselves underdogs to advance to the next round. That means if he isn’t able to put up a gaudy number in the two legs against Barcelona, Gordon may also be out of the race.
If Gordon were to get elimintated here, that would leave Harry Kane as the next option to try to pass Mbappe. He currently sits five goals down with a maximum of seven games left to play. Knowing that Mbappe would be stagnant with his total, I think he’s a safe play to just ride out until the end.
Champions League Winner
I was in on this price last week and I’m in on it again now. You don’t have to buy Tottenham as a serious threat to win the Champions League to like this price. The fact of the matter is that they are set up with a relatively easy path to advance for a round or two, which would make this price look a lot more attractive in a couple of rounds.
In the Round of 16, they drew a showdown with Atlético Madrid, who has faltered as of late. They rebounded from an ugly draw with Belgian side Club Brugge to make it to this point. Even before that, they were struggling a bit. They drew with Galatasaray and then dropped the final League Phase match to Bodo Glimt. Tottenham should breeze by them to make the quarterfinals.
Following that, Tottenham would find themselves in a showdown with the winner of Barcelona and Newcastle United. The favorite, Barcelona, looked like a juggernaut down the stretch, but that may be due to a really easy schedule. They closed the League Phase with Eintracht Frankfurt, Slavia Prague and Copenhagen. The last time they had a real challenge was a 3-0 loss to Chelsea. There’s a good chance Tottenham could spring an upset there and find themselves in the semifinals. If so, it would mark a huge payoff on this low price.
If you’d like even more picks and predictions that you can use to play on Kalshi’s Prediction Market, be sure to check out the Sports Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping plenty of episodes to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
