With the NHL’s almost month-long Winter Olympics break in the rearview, we can concentrate on the last third of the season. And what better way to do that than to get in on some winning NHL futures plays over at Kalshi?! Here is where the NHL futures market on Kalshi stands on February 26th.
NHL Futures Market on Kalshi – Feb 26/26
Stanley Cup Champion?
We may as well start with the most pressing and important question – who is going to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup come June? The answer to that question was the Florida Panthers the past two seasons, but with them having an injury-plagued down season this year, you can get them at Kalshi at only 4% to win the Cup.
It’s basically a two (or three) horse race at this point to win the title between the Colorado Avalanche (25%) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (17%), with the Carolina Hurricanes also hanging in there at 11%.
Despite their dominant play thus far, analytics sites have the Avalanche with only a 10% chance to win the Cup this season. So I’m going with the field in this category, and taking Colorado at ‘No’ for $0.76.
Best Trade: Colorado – No $0.76 (+132)
Which teams will play in the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals?
This play goes hand in hand, sort of, with the above ‘No’ play on the Colorado Avalanche. In my eyes, there is actually even more value in this trade than the Stanley Cup winner one.
The most likely Stanley Cup Finals matchup, sitting at 18% on Kalshi, is the Colorado Avalanche facing the Tampa Bay Lightning. Once again, it makes sense, with the Avalanche leading the Western Conference (and the league) with 85 points, and the Lightning leading the Eastern Conference with 80 points.
However, this one comes down to the math. The Lightning are pegged at around a 23% chance of making the Finals (once again, on analytics sites), while the Avalanche sits at 20% (I’ve seen those numbers as high as 38% and 29%, respectively). So, based on the numbers, the odds of a Colorado vs Tampa Bay Stanley Cup Finals are around 10% at best. With plenty of tough competitors in each conference, I like the ‘No’ play here again.
Best Trade: Tampa Bay and Colorado to meet in Stanley Cup Finals – No $0.86 (+117)
NHL Hart Memorial Trophy
There’s a runaway leader to be named league MVP, and his name is Nathan MacKinnon. With a league-leading 40 goals, scored for the league’s best team, it makes sense that MacKinnon is the favorite (60%) to win the second Hart Trophy of his career.
But what about MacKinnon’s biggest rival, Connor McDavid? The Edmonton Oilers superstar leads the league in assists and points, and could flirt with breaking his career-high of 153 points he registered in 2022/23, the last time he won the Hart Trophy.
The way McDavid played in the Olympics, where he was named MVP, bodes well for his play the rest of the season. I think there’s incredible value on him at $0.12 (13%).
Best Trade: Connor McDavid Yes to win Hart Trophy $0.12 (+834)
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