Happy Valentine’s Day, fellow degens! It’s only fitting that college hoops delivers a Super Saturday slate of bangers for those of us who have great love for the sport. You know what would be an even better Valentine’s Day gift? Three winning college basketball picks. We’ve gone through the numbers and found three plays that you’ll want to lock up as our gift to you. You’re welcome!
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for February 14
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 153-136-5
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 15-83
TCU at Oklahoma State
Start Time: 12:00 PM EST
TCU enters this matchup with a 15-9 overall record and a 1-4 mark on the road. The Horned Frogs are 12-12 overall against the spread and 3-2 ATS on the road.
Oklahoma State comes into this game with a 16-8 overall record and a 13-2 home mark. The Cowboys are 11-13 overall ATS and 6-9 ATS at home.
TCU has won seven out of the last 10 matchups in this series. The Horned Frogs beat Oklahoma State in Fort Worth in January by three. Oklahoma State has managed to cover in three of the last five games head-to-head with TCU.
TCU has won two in a row, including a home win against Iowa State. Oklahoma State lost both legs of its Arizona road trip. We have TCU off the big win at home against a ranked opponent, and Oklahoma State returning home after a poor road trip. The situation favors Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State can fill it up on the offensive end, and they get to shoot on their home floor against a TCU team that can be a little soft on the perimeter. Oklahoma State is 81st in the nation in shooting percentage, and TCU is 189th in three-point shooting percentage against.
This is an obvious let-down spot and a clear get-up spot for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys should have no problem covering a short spread against a TCU team that hasn’t been great on the road and is off a big win. Lock up Oklahoma State to cover in the early slate.
Best Bet: Oklahoma State -1.5
Northern Illinois at Central Michigan
Start Time: 5:00 PM EST
Northern Illinois enters this game with an 8-15 overall record and a 2-11 mark on the road. The Huskies are 11-10 ATS overall and 8-5 ATS on the road.
Central Michigan comes into this matchup with a 7-17 overall record and a 6-4 mark at home. The Chippewas are 12-10 overall ATS and 6-2 ATS at home.
Northern Illinois beat Central Michigan in DeKalb, IL in December. The Huskies did not cover. They were a 2.5-point home favorite.
The Huskies have only won three times in their last 10, but they did manage a road win at Georgia State. Central Michigan has won three out of its last four home games outright and covered in all four games.
Neither of these teams is amazing or even adequate on defense. However, Central Michigan can score. The Chippewas have a much more efficient offense than NIU, and they’re a solid shooting team. Central Michigan is 154th in shooting percentage and can score in the paint. NIU allows opponents to shoot 47.7% on two-point shots. That’s 318th in the nation. The Huskies are a bottom-20 team in terms of turnovers surrendered.
The short spread makes sense, but Central Michigan nearly clipped Northern Illinois on the road as an underdog. The Chippewas have been good at home, and their offense is solid. Let’s lock up the Chippewas to get a cover at home in a revenge spot against a really poor NIU team.
Best Bet: Central Michigan -2.5
St. Thomas at UMKC
Start Time: 8:00 PM EST
St. Thomas comes into this game with a 20-7 overall record and a 7-5 mark on the road. The Tommies are 11-13 overall ATS and 7-5 ATS on the road.
UMKC enters this matchup with a 4-21 overall record and a 3-8 mark at home. The Kangaroos are 5-17 overall ATS and 1-7 ATS at home.
The Tommies have won six out of nine games in this series, and covered five out of nine. St. Thomas has won six straight matchups against UMKC. These teams played at the end of January in St. Paul. The Tommies won by 35 as a 17.5-point favorite.
The Tommies are off a road loss at Omaha as a 4.5-point favorite. St. Thomas has won seven of their last 10 games and is 6-4 ATS over that stretch. UMKC has lost nine games in a row, and is 1-9 ATS over their last 10 games. The Kangaroos have lost five straight games at home.
St. Thomas is in the top-50 in points per game, 12th in the nation in shooting efficiency, and 5th in the nation in effective shooting percentage. The Tommies are among the best offenses in the nation. UMKC is virtually the opposite on offense. The Kangaroos are a bottom-15 team in the nation in shooting efficiency.
The Tommies are also the better rebounding team and better at protecting the ball. St. Thomas isn’t amazing on defense, but they are still light years ahead of UMKC on the defensive end.
Jump on this line as soon as you can. St. Thomas is currently laying 13.5, but they should be laying more. It’s hard to see a universe in which the Tommies don’t win this by 30. Lock up the Tommies to win and cover against UMKC.
Best Bet: St. Thomas -13.5
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis of every college basketball game in the 2025-26 season, tune in to The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
