The Great American Race is here as NASCAR heads to Daytona Beach, Florida, to get its season underway. NASCAR knows how to party, starting their season with the biggest race of the year, and the beautiful Harley J Earl Trophy on the line. Luckily, our friends over at Kalshi have set the prediction market on the Daytona 500. Let’s jump in and take a look at the positions they are offering, and make a few picks on the best trades.
What is Kalshi?
Are you like many out there and are bored by the same old odds that you get on every sportsbook? Or maybe you’re sick of the prepackaged parlays that books try to hit you with that never really hit. Well, if you’re ready to ditch the old, musty ways of the sportsbooks, then you should try out prediction markets with Kalshi. Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi allows you to trade your positions and to do so on just about anything imaginable. You can make predictions on sports, but also weather predictions, politics predictions, and pop culture predictions as well. Come check out what Kalshi is all about! The best part, Kalshi is legal in all 50 states!
When you’ve located a market you’d like to make a prediction in, you buy in on a side. The cost of that yes or no answer will be somewhere between 1 and 99 cents based on how likely it is to come true. Once you’ve purchased your side, you can make money in two ways. Firstly, you can hold your position, and if it comes true, then each share is worth $1. You can also sell your position as it rises and falls in hopes of getting the best value out of what you predicted. If you’re ready to give Kalshi a shot, make sure to sign up with promo code SGPN and get a free $20.
Kalshi Predictions Market – Trading on the Daytona 500
*Markets are subject to move, and were accurate at the time of publishing.
Kyle Larson to Win 6% Chance (+1566)
Kyle Larson is a market I’m targeting on Kalshi. He’s a driver, I think, who could be in contention for this race, which means if I hold the stock until the end, I could be a big winner ($10 would pay $156). It also gives me the option to sell him at a higher price as he’s doing well in the race. According to my friends at Wintherace.info, Larson has spent 41.12% of his last eight races at Daytona inside of the top 10. 18.58% of that time has been spent inside of the top five.
If Larson is cruising up in the front for a while, and his stock starts to rise, it might be time to sell sell sell! A good strategy around Larson would be to purchase some you plan to keep in case he wins, and some to sell at a high point during the race.
Joey Logano to Win 6% Chance (+1566)
Three-time Cup Series Champion Joey Logano is trading at the same price as Larson at the time of this article. Once again referencing Wintherace.info, there is no driver who spends more time up front at Daytona than Joey Logano. Over the same eight-race span, Logano has spent 57.69% of his time in the top 10. He’s spent 32.56% of that time inside the top three, while leading the field 13.36% of the time.
Moral of the story, if you are looking for a driver to buy stock on that should spike during the race, look no further than Joey Logano. Logano is sure to have that bright yellow Penske #22 Shell Dark Horse Ford Mustang out in front of the field, his stock rising and just waiting for you to capitalize.
Josh Berry to Win 2% Chance (+4900)
If you want someone who starts out as a longer shot, but can have that same opportunity to bring some trade value. Josh Berry is a good place to look. At this starting number, a $10 purchase would net out $467 dollars if Berry wins. Berry is another driver who has done a good job of spending time up front, and thus should increase his stock.
Berry drives the #21 Wood Brothers car that Harrison Burton won at Daytona in back in 2024. He’s also teammates with the aforementioned Joey Logano, along with Ryan Blaney and Austin Cindric. This team is great at getting to the front and looking dominant. When Berry is mixing it up with the leaders, his long-shot chance will look attractive to potential suitors. That’ll increase his price and give you a great opportunity to sell.
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