We are down to just four teams fighting for a spot to play in the Super Bowl. The New England Patriots head to Denver to take on the Broncos in the AFC Championship. The LA Rams head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in the NFC Championship. Let’s preview the NFC Championship, including against the spread, moneyline, and totals picks, best bets, and more!
NFC Championship Preview, Picks, and Best Bets
NFC Championship Preview
The NFC Championship contains two teams that are very familiar with each other. Both in the NFC West, the LA Rams and Seattle Seahawks have played each other twice a year for years. Seattle crushed their other NFC West division opponent last week, the 49ers, 41-6 to advance to the Championship game. They’re the number one seed in the NFC and finished with an NFC-best 13-5 record. They’ll face off on Sunday, January 25th, at 3:30 Pacific, 6:30 Eastern.
The Rams squeaked by the Bears in overtime, winning 20-17 after their defense forced a turnover in overtime and they were able to drive down the field to kick the game-winning field goal. They finished the season with a 12-7 record, grabbing the fifth seed in the playoffs. While their defense has played well this year, their success has ridden on the arm of the likely MVP, Matthew Stafford.
Given that these two are division opponents, they’ve already played each other twice this year during the regular season. In the first matchup in LA, the Rams won a close 21-19 defensive battle. Sam Darnold threw four interceptions that day and zero touchdowns, while Stafford threw two touchdowns and no interceptions. A month later, they faced off in Seattle, and the Seahawks won a shootout, 38-37. Darnold still threw two interceptions, but was able to throw two touchdowns as well.
NFC Championship ATS, Moneyline, and Totals Picks
The Seattle Seahawks are 2.5-point home favorites. They opened up as one-point favorites, but early money has driven it up to 2.5. The Rams may have lost in Seattle in December. However, they still covered the +1.5-point spread at that time. Now with the line up to 2.5, I expect them to cover again. I’ll take the Rams +2.5 in a close divisional game.
The total for the game is 46.5. In December, these two teams combined for 75 points. However, in November, when they met in LA, only 40 points were scored. The Seahawks just put up 41 on San Francisco, holding the 49ers to just six. Meanwhile, the Rams held on to a defensive battle, only needing 20 points to win and holding Chicago to 17. Seven of the last eight Rams’ games hit the over. Only five of the last ten Seahawks’ games have hit the over. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, I expect this game to have enough points to hit over 46.5 points.
As for the moneyline, this is a game that truly feels like it could go either way. However, I just can’t bring myself to trust Sam Darnold on such a big stage. I realize he’s done a fairly solid job all year. I won’t forget that last year, Sam Darnold was on the Vikings after turning in a 14-3 year and lost to the Rams 27-9. Stafford’s clutch performance will pay off, and the Rams will win (+130) to advance to the Super Bowl.
NFC Championship Best Prop Bets
If you’re a degen like me, you have to get in on some action for prop bets as well. I figured I’d highlight a few that I like. You can also hear my favorite AFC Championship bets on our special throwback episode of Old-Fashioned Football, where we recap the 2015 AFC Championship game and preview this year’s championship games.
My first prop bet that I like the most is regarding the two stud receivers and their catching props. In the first matchup, Puka only had seven catches while JSN had nine. In the second matchup, Puka had 12 catches while JSN had eight. I’m parlaying these two together to both have eight-plus catches. If you combine this in a parlay, you’ll get a nice +309, just slightly over 3/1 odds on a prop that I feel is one of my best bets of the weekend.
I’m also circling Colby Parkinson. He has 9 touchdowns in the last eleven games, which is the most receiving touchdowns since Week 9 by any player. He’s +320 to score an anytime touchdown, and that’s just too tempting to pass up. I’m also getting down on Colby Parkinson to score the first touchdown at +1700.
I don’t hate Davante Adams anytime touchdown at +125 either. In fact, if I combine Matt Stafford’s top two redzone targets, Colby Parkinson and Davante Adams, to both score an anytime touchdown, it’s +934. I’m a dege, I can’t pass that one up either.
