New England Patriots, Denver Broncos. These two heavyweight AFC teams will battle it out Sunday in Denver for the right to play in Super Bowl LX. Denver will have to do it with a backup quarterback, while New England is looking to continue their quest in one of the greatest single-season turnarounds in history. Let’s dive deep into this AFC Championship Game preview. Then make our game picks and place our best bets for Sunday’s game.
The New England Patriots won just four games last season. They fired head coach Jerod Mayo and hired another former player, Mike Vrabel. Vrabel was the key sauce this team needed to turn things around. The Patriots went from 4-13 to 14-3 under the leadership of Vrabel and the breakout MVP candidacy of quarterback Drake Maye.
It was an easier schedule, but the Patriots beat the teams in front of them, and they responded in the playoffs as well. First, taking down Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert’s Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round. Last week, the weather was in full force in Foxborough as they turned CJ Stroud and company over five times in a Divisional Round win. No quarterback in history has defeated three top-five defenses in a single postseason. Drake Maye will become the first if the Patriots pull out the victory.
The Denver Broncos had themselves an equally impressive season. They built off of a strong 2024, where they went 10-7 and made a playoff appearance. This year, they improved that record to 14-3 and secured the #1 seed in the AFC. In the Divisional Round, Denver avenged last year’s playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills, taking them down in a controversial overtime win and sending the Bills franchise into an offseason spiral.
Unfortunately, it was a costly win for the Broncos over Buffalo. On the second-to-last play of overtime, their star quarterback, Bo Nix, broke a bone in his ankle. Nix will miss this game and the Super Bowl if the Broncos were to make it. That means Jarrett Stidham is the next man up. The Broncos’ backup is familiar with New England. He was a fourth-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft by the team and backed up Tom Brady.
AFC Championship Preview, Picks, and Best Bets
Starting off with the moneyline play, aka my pick for this game. It’s the New England Patriots. I’ve been a believer of this team for quite some time, and in my playoff prediction article before the playoffs started, I had the Patriots and Rams in the Super Bowl. So, pretty simply, give me the Patriots to win this one.
Patriots Moneyline (-240)
Not only are the Patriots my pick to win this game, but I’m also taking them to cover the spread as well. This New England team has been battle-tested through the first two games against elite defenses. In both cases, the Patriots’ offense was able to overcome mistakes and get the job done. The biggest thing about Drake Maye, he’s as cool as the other side of the pillow, as Stuart Scott would say. He doesn’t show emotion, and he doesn’t let a mistake faze him. He just steps up. That’s a lethal weapon for a Patriots quarterback to possess.
This will not be an easy game for the Patriots to win. This Denver Broncos team is for real. It’s a shame as a football fan that we won’t get to see this game with Bo Nix at the helm. Ultimately, this Patriots defense, which doesn’t get enough credit, will be the difference. Jarrett Stidham might be able to put together a solid game, but he will capitalize on his mistakes.
Patriots -4.5 (-110)
42.5 is a pretty low total for this game, with the unknowns of the Broncos offense under Jarrett Stidham and both teams having strong defenses, the books see this one being low scoring. I went back and forth on this total because I think they have it set about right. If Denver can control the game, their best bet is to keep it as a low scoring game using as much clock as possible and not forcing Jarrett Stidham’s hand.
New England, on the other hand, may want to do the opposite and force the hand of the Broncos. The Patriots have been great at managing the clock and controlling the game through their first two playoff games. This is the type of game that sets up well for a defensive score or two, or a big special teams play. Even if that happens, I still see a hard time getting this game over the total. So I’m rolling with the under.
Under 42.5
