Super Tuesday is in the rear view mirror, and we’re barreling into Mid-Major Wednesday with a few power conference games mixed in. We have over 60 games on the slate for January 14th. With that many games, it’s not unheard of for books to have games mispriced. There are at least three games that the books made a mistake. Let’s get into today’s college basketball picks.
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for January 14
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 108-94-2
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 10-56
Iona at Rider
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST
Iona enters this game with a 12-6 overall record and a 4-3 mark on the road. The Gaels are 12-6 overall against the spread and 5-2 ATS on the road. Iona is off back-to-back home wins and covers in-conference. The Gaels beat Canisius by 26 points and Niagara by 18 in New Rochelle.
Rider comes into this matchup with a 1-14 overall record and a 1-5 mark at home. The Broncs are 5-9 overall ATS and 0-5 ATS at home. Rider has yet to secure a win against a DI program. The Broncs are off a loss against Marist, in which they only scored 49 points and lost by 22 points.
This is a trend that we’re going to ride until it bucks us off the Bronc. Rider has a bottom-10 offense in the nation. They average fewer than 60 points scored per game. They’re 363rd in the nation in scoring. It’s hard to cover when you can’t really score, and your defense isn’t much better.
Iona is the better side by a wide, wide margin. The line is a little stinky, but we’re diving into the stink against a team that’s as offensively challenged as Rider. This is a system play like fading Coppin State. Lock up Iona to go into Lawrence Township and win by more than seven points.
Best Bet: Iona -7
Missouri State at Western Kentucky
Start Time: 7:30 PM EST
Missouri State comes into this game with a 10-6 overall record and a 1-4 mark on the road. The Bears are 7-6 ATS overall and 2-3 ATS on the road.
Western Kentucky enters this matchup with a 10-6 overall record and a 7-1 mark at home. The Hilltoppers are 8-6 ATS overall and 3-3 ATS at home.
These two teams haven’t faced each other since 2018. Missouri State has won six of its last seven. Their only loss was a game at Kennesaw State that they lost by 10 and didn’t cover. Western Kentucky has won three of its last four games, including home games against Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech.
Western Kentucky is tough to beat at home, but the Hilltoppers have the better scoring offense, are the better rebounding team, and are better at generating turnovers. This is a tough spot for Missouri State team that has been better than expected in conference. However, the Bears’ conference wins have come against UTEP, Delaware, New Mexico State, and FIU. All four of those teams are in the bottom half of the conference. Western Kentucky is their first real test in-conference, and they’re not going to pass it. Lock up Western Kentucky to win and cover at home.
Best Bet: Western Kentucky -6.5
South Dakota State at North Dakota State
Start Time: 8:00 PM EST
We’ve got a rivalry game. This is the Dakota Marker on the hardwood!
South Dakota State enters this matchup with a 9-9 overall record and a 2-4 record on the road. The Jackrabbits are 7-8 ATS overall and 4-2 ATS on the road.
North Dakota State comes into this game with a 14-5 overall record and an 8-0 mark at home. The Bison are 9-7 ATS overall and 3-2 ATS at home.
South Dakota State has won both of the last two games in this series played at North Dakota State. The Jackrabbits have won two of their last three games entering this game. SDSU beat Omaha and Denver at home, but lost a sandwich spot to North Dakota.
North Dakota State is on a four-game winning streak. The Bison just won back-to-back road games at UMKC and at Omaha. The Bison have St. Thomas on deck. This game is a rivalry game, but there’s a non-zero chance that they may be looking ahead to a game against one of the top teams in the Summit League.
The metrics actually favor South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits have the more efficient offense and the better shooting team. South Dakota State is shooting 33.6% from three-point range. That’s 188th in the nation, but North Dakota State allows opponents to shoot 34.8% from deep. That’s 228th in the nation. The Jackrabbits are better at limiting scoring on defense, while the Bison are better at taking the ball away.
South Dakota State has the recent history in this building, and they’re a more desperate team. The Jackrabbits have the better offense and can get stops on defense. Lock up the Jackrabbits to keep this one close and stay within the 5.5 points.
Best Bet: South Dakota State +5.5
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis on every college basketball game for the 2025-26 season, make sure you tune into The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
