What a Super Wild Card Weekend it was to kick off the 2026 playoffs! Now, just eight teams remain with a chance to win Super Bowl LX. That gives us four thrilling games for this NFL Divisional Round Weekend, two on Saturday and two on Sunday. Win this weekend, and you are one game away from the Super Bowl. Let’s jump into this week’s NFL playoff picks for the Divisional Round.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos, Saturday 4:30 ET
Things kick off in Denver at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium. The 4:30 ET kickoff will air on CBS as Jim Nance and Tony Romo broadcast the game. The AFC’s #1 seed is fresh off a bye week and rested up as they welcome Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills to town.
It was a grueling and physical game for the Buffalo Bills, but they went into Jacksonville and ground out a hard-fought win over the #3 seed Jacksonville Jaguars. Josh Allen put in the work, passing for 273 yards and a touchdown, and rushing for another 33 yards and two additional touchdowns. The Bills lost Gabe Davis, who looks unlikely to play this week. Josh Palmer was placed on IR, and Ty Johnson did not play and was seen in a walking boot. Jordan Poyer has already been ruled out.
While it’ll be a second game in seven days for Buffalo, Denver took full advantage of the bye week and rested up. This will be their second game in the last 23 days. The Broncos are relatively healthy, and activated the 21-day practice window for five players this week.
I love seeing the Denver Broncos as home dogs in this game. Everyone looks around and sees Josh Allen as the big name left, and while he’s very good, it’s going to be hard for him to do it all on his own. His best wide receiver is Brandin Cooks, and James Cook got a little beat up on Saturday. Allen himself visited the blue medical tent twice in their win over the Jaguars.
I’ll take the healthier team with fresh legs and the home-field advantage in the altitude. This Broncos team isn’t going to blow anyone out, but their stifling defense will slow Josh Allen down, and they just need Bo Nix to manage the game. Don’t get lost in Josh Allen hype with no team around him, Denver is the better and more complete team. The Broncos win a close one to kick the weekend off.
Pick: Broncos +1.5
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, Saturday 8:00 ET
The Saturday Nightcap at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington, home of the 12th man, will kick off at 8:00 ET. This one will air on Fox, meaning Kevin Burkhardt and Tom Brady will be on the call. This NFC West showdown will be a rematch of the Week 18 game that gave the Seahawks the #1 seed with a 13-3 victory.
San Francisco took down the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, but suffered yet another devastating blow. Star tight end George Kittle tore his Achilles and will miss the remainder of the 49ers’ playoff run. Safety Ji’Ayir Brown suffered a hamstring injury and is unlikely to play Saturday. Fred Warner is still unlikely to be activated this weekend, but the 49ers are hopeful for Ricky Pearsall to return.
Much like Denver, Seattle enjoyed their week off after a hard-fought season that led them to the #1 seed in the NFC. Rookie tight end Elijah Arroyo is “looking good,” according to head coach Mike Macdonald. He could return this week after missing the final four games of the season. Charles Cross and Coby Bryant could be huge contributors who got the chance to rest up and should be ready to go this weekend.
This is my favorite game to bet this week, and I love the San Francisco 49ers. Yes, you can look at this depleted roster and all the injuries piling up and quickly write them off. But that’s what makes them different. They fight through the adversity, and Kyle Shanahan is a savant at getting through the NFC side of the playoffs. He is 7-0 straight up in the Wild Card and Divisional rounds.
On the other side, it’s an inexperienced head coach in Mike Macdonald, and the ghostbuster himself, Sam Darnold. Nothing gives me less confidence than Sam Darnold as a favorite of more than a touchdown against a head coach, quarterback, and team that just has that Dawg in them. And Seattle winning two games in a row over them? Good luck. The 49ers are the play of the week at +7.5 and alive on the moneyline +310.
Pick: 49ers +7.5
Houston Texans at New England Patriots, Sunday 3:00 ET
Sunday kicks off in Foxborough, Massachusetts, as the New England Patriots host the Houston Texans. The 3:00 ET kickoff will air on ESPN and ABC, with the Monday Night Football crew of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the call.
Houston blew out the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football. It was a close, sloppy game until the fourth quarter when they broke Aaron Rodgers and cracked the game wide open. Wide receiver Nico Collins suffered a concussion in the victory and had to be carted off the field. The cart, plus the short week, is concerning for Collins’ availability on Sunday.
New England took care of business against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football in a similar fashion to how the Texans did it on Monday night. A slow, sloppy game until the fourth quarter, when they cracked it open and cruised to victory. The Patriots didn’t escape without their own major concussion concern. Their lockdown cornerback, Christian Gonzalez, left the game and is in the concussion protocol.
If you know me and my work, you know I’ve been riding this Patriots team all season long, even when nobody has believed. That won’t change this weekend. It simply comes down to trusting Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye more than DeMeco Ryans and CJ Stroud. Both teams struggled with their opponents, yet both seemed in control the whole game in the Wild Card Round. However, Maye broke out of that late in his game, while Stroud looked pedestrian and had to be carried by the defense. This Texans defense might just be good enough to keep carrying them, but the Patriots pull out a close one here and just cover, winning by about a field goal.
Pick: Patriots -2.5
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears, Sunday 6:30 ET
The final domino of the Divisional Round will fall into place on Sunday Night Football at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The game will air on NBC and Peacock. With the traditional Sunday Night Football crew of Mike Tirico and Chris Collinsworth on the broadcast.
Los Angeles snuck out a victory over the Carolina Panthers, who put up a lot more of a fight than most, myself included, thought they would. The Rams got a scare when Matthew Stafford hurt a finger on throwing hand, but x-rays came back negative, and Stafford should be good to go. Unfortunately, the news on cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon is much worse; he’s been placed on IR, ending his season.
Chicago did it again. The Cardiac Bears came back from down 21-3 to pull the upset over their rivals, the Green Bay Packers. They did lose their left tackle, Ozzy Trapilo, for the year, but may get Braxton Jones back for Sunday’s match. Linebacker TJ Edwards has also been lost for the year after suffering a broken fibula in the victory.
My Super Bowl matchup when the playoffs began was Rams/Patriots, and I’m sticking to my guns again this week. The Rams didn’t play the greatest game against the Panthers, but they did enough to get the job done. Chicago can’t keep living on a hope and prayer of comebacks, and I believe this is the week that will bite them and send them packing. Chicago has a lot to be proud of, and a lot to look forward to in the Ben Johnson/ Caleb Williams era. Matt Stafford and his veteran team love to see another week.
Pick: Rams -3.5
