College basketball rolls into another week of action. The slate for January 12th is limited to SWAC, MEAC, Southland, and Patriot League action, but there are still plays on the board worth taking. Low-major games often get numbers that are less sharp and less bet up than power programs. We’ve found three college basketball picks that the books may have gotten wrong. Let’s dive in.
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for January 12
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 105-91-2
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 10-54
NC Central at Morgan State
Start Time: 6:00 PM EST
NC Central comes into this game with a 6-11 overall record and a 1-9 mark on the road. The Eagles are 8-5 overall against the spread and 6-4 ATS on the road.
Morgan State enters this matchup with a 4-12 overall record and a 4-4 home record. The Bears are 6-8 overall ATS and 5-1 ATS at home.
Morgan State is off a win over South Carolina State after dropping a road game to Maryland-Eastern Shores. NC Central is off a win at Coppin State. The Eagles have also won at home against Norfolk State. Morgan State has owned the recent history of this series. They’ve won and covered four straight games head-to-head over NC Central.
While Morgan State has won recently in this series, NC Central is the better team this year. The Eagles have played and won games in a tougher in-conference schedule than Morgan State. The Eagles have a win against the preseason favorite to win the conference and won and covered against the worst team in the conference.
NC Central is simply in a better place than Morgan State is this year. The Eagles have the better shooting team and the better defensive approach. They should outclass Morgan State, win the game, and cover the 1-point spread. Lock up the Eagles to roll against Morgan State.
Best Bet: NC Central -1
Maryland-Eastern Shores at Norfolk State
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST
UMES enters this game with a 6-13 overall record and a 1-12 road mark. The Hawks are 11-6 overall ATS and 8-5 ATS on the road.
Norfolk State comes into this matchup with a 7-11 overall record and a 4-1 home mark. The Spartans are 6-9 ATS overall and 0-2 ATS at home.
Norfolk State won all three games outright last season, but Maryland-Eastern Shores covered as a dog in two out of three games played in 2024-25.
UMES has in-conference wins over Howard and Morgan State. Norfolk State lost outright to NC Central on the road, but won and failed to cover against Delaware State.
Norfolk State was the preseason favorite to win the conference, but they’ve been offensively challenged this year. The Spartans aren’t terrible at shooting from distance, but they are among the worst teams in the country in terms of free-throw shooting and shooting percentage on two-point shots. UMES isn’t much better, but Norfolk State has been a really poor shooting team this season.
When it comes to defense, both of these teams can get a stop. This game should be an absolute rock fight that shouldn’t be more than a one-possession game. UMES is catching two possessions. Lock in UMES to stay within the 5.5 points and sprinkle the moneyline.
Best Bet: UMES +5.5
Nicholls at McNeese
Start Time: 7:30 PM EST
Nicholls enters this game with an 8-8 overall record and a 3-8 road mark. The Colonels are 8-7 overall ATS and 5-6 ATS on the road.
McNeese comes into this matchup with a 13-3 overall record and an 8-0 home record. The Cowboys are 7-7 overall ATS and 3-3 ATS at home.
McNeese split this series last year against Nicholls, and the Colonels have covered three straight head-to-head matchups. Nicholls enters this matchup having won five straight games. Over that stretch, they’ve covered four out of five games.
McNeese has laid double-digits in each of its last three games. The Cowboys have failed to cover all of them. Books and the public are still respecting McNeese like it’s still 2024-25. This is still a good team that should win the Southland Conference, but they’re not at the same level as last year’s squad.
Nicholls has a surprisingly efficient offense, and they hit three-pointers at a 35.39% clip. The Colonels aren’t as good as McNeese defensively, but they generate 15.3 turnovers per game. That’s 15th in the nation. The only problem is that McNeese is fourth in the nation in turnovers generated.
McNeese is a get-up spot for every team in the conference this year after they ran through the Southland last year. They’ve got a big target on their back, and everyone is gunning for them. McNeese has struggled to cover big numbers, and Nicholls looks like one of the few teams that might threaten the Cowboys’ stranglehold on the conference. Lock up the Colonels to keep the game within 14.5 points.
Best Bet: Nicholls +14.5
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis on every college basketball game for the 2025-26 season, make sure you tune into The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
