College Football is down to three games left. The NFL is about to head into the playoffs. However, college hoops is just starting conference play, and we’ve got three full months until we choose a champion. If Sunday’s action on the gridiron isn’t enough for you, we’ve got a trio of college basketball picks you’ll want to get in on. Let’s go through it.
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for January 3
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 95-77-2
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 9-49
Illinois-Chicago at Valparaiso
Start Time: 3:00 PM EST
UIC enters this game with a 5-9 overall record and a 1-5 record on the road. The Flames are 5-7 against the spread overall and 2-4 ATS on the road.
Valparaiso comes into this matchup with a 6-8 overall record and a 5-3 mark at home. The Crusaders are 5-6-1 ATS overall and 3-3-1 ATS at home.
Valparaiso lost two out of three to UIC last year, but they did cover two out of three last year. UIC hasn’t won against a DI opponent since November 22nd. Valparaiso enters this one on a four-game losing streak. They last beat a DI opponent on November 29th.
UIC is on autofade until they win another game against a DI program. Since their last outright win against an opponent at college basketball’s highest level, the Flames are 2-5 ATS. Valparaiso hasn’t been good this year, but they’ve been better than we’ve seen in recent seasons. The Crusaders have a pair of bigs that can give teams trouble, and their guard play has been capable.
UIC gets killed on the glass, and Valpo has guys that can pull down a rebound. Between getting second chances on offense and limiting second chances on defense, the Crusaders should be able to take advantage. Valpo has also been really good at limiting turnovers, while UIC plays loose with the ball at times. Look for Valparaiso to get extra possessions and do enough to win and cover against a program that’s really struggling. Lock up Valparaiso to get the job done at home.
Best Bet: Valparaiso -3
New Mexico State at Missouri State
Start Time: 3:00 PM EST
New Mexico State enters this game with an 8-4 overall record and a 0-2 mark on the road. The Aggies are 4-5 ATS overall and 0-2 ATS on the road.
Missouri State comes into this matchup with an 8-5 overall record and a 7-2 home record. The Bears are 3-7 ATS overall and 2-4 ATS at home.
New Mexico State is coming into this one off a road loss against FIU. Missouri State has won four in a row, but they haven’t set the world on fire in this run. The Bears have beaten Oral Roberts by one, Lindenwood by five, and UTEP by 24 at home. They also picked up an 18-point win at Delaware. None of these teams is in the same league as New Mexico State.
Missouri State plays at a slow pace, can’t really score, and tries to grind out wins. New Mexico State is a much better team on the offensive end by just about every important metric. They’re the superior free-throw shooting team, and that may matter when the game gets into crunch time. On the defensive end, New Mexico State has been tested against better programs and found ways to win. Missouri State dresses up its defensive metrics by playing at a slower pace and trying to break teams down in the half-court.
The handicap here is simple. New Mexico State is capable of scoring, and Missouri State struggles to put the ball through the hoop. The Aggies are off a road loss and have played better teams in the conference. New Mexico State goes into Springfield, MO, and wins this one by more than one point. Lock up the Aggies to get the job done.
Best Bet: New Mexico State -1
Youngstown State at Northern Kentucky
Start Time: 4:00 PM EST
Youngstown State comes into this game with an 8-7 overall record and a 2-4 mark on the road. The Penguins are 5-7-1 overall ATS and 3-2-1 ATS on the road.
Northern Kentucky enters this matchup with an 11-5 overall record and an 8-2 mark at home. The Norse are 6-7 overall ATS and 4-3 ATS at home.
Youngstown State is only 1-3 in conference so far, and the Penguins have dropped three straight conference games. They’re just off back-to-back home losses to Detroit Mercy and Oakland. Northern Kentucky is 3-1 in conference. The Norse have beaten IU-Indy and Cleveland State at home and Robert Morris in Moon Township.
This is a case of a clash of styles that favors the underdog. Youngstown State wants to get up and down the floor and chuck threes. Northern Kentucky has seen its opponents shoot 38.1% from deep range. That’s 341st in the nation. The Norse are capable of generating turnovers, but Youngstown State should find open looks from beyond the arc and make Northern Kentucky pay for it.
The Penguins are off back-to-back games in which they failed to shoot over 30% from three-point range. If they can’t get right from deep against Northern Kentucky, they can’t get right against anyone. Let’s go back in on these Penguins one more time and lock up Youngstown State to keep this within the number and potentially win outright.
Best Bet: Youngstown State +4
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis on every college basketball game for the 2025-26 season, make sure you tune into The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
