The first Super Saturday slate of 2026 is here! Division I in college football has played its final non-college football playoff bowl games, so Saturday belongs to college hoops from now on. We’ve dug through the deep slate and crunched all the numbers. There are at least three college basketball picks that you’ll want to lock up before tip-off. Let’s get into it.
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College Basketball Preview, Picks, and Best Bets for January 2
Matt Dewoskin ATS College Basketball Picks Record (Est 11/3/2025)
All Selections: 93-76-2
Perfect 3-0 Cards: 9-48
Ball State at Buffalo
Start Time: 2:00 PM EST
Ball State comes into this matchup with a 4-9 overall record and a 0-5 road mark. The Cardinals are 6-4-1 against the spread overall and 3-0 ATS on the road.
Buffalo enters this game with a 12-2 overall record and a 5-1 home record. The Bulls are 9-3 ATS overall and 3-1 ATS at home.
Ball State has won and covered three straight games in this series. The Cardinals broke a four-game losing streak with a 63-point win over a lower division program. Ball State lost to Miami (OH) by nine in Muncie, IN. Buffalo has won three in a row, and they destroyed Western Michigan in Kalamazoo, MI.
Ball State has struggled on the road, ranking as a bottom-60 program in the country. Buffalo came into the year with a portal roster and a lot of unknowns, but they’ve looked solid almost everywhere they’ve gone. Buffalo is one of the most efficient offenses in the country. Ball State has one of the least efficient offenses in the country. The Cardinals aren’t terrible on defense, but it’s hard to see how they score more than 70 in this game. Buffalo rolls and covers the seven points. Lock up the Bulls!
Best Bet: Buffalo -7
Cal Baptist at Tarleton State
Start Time: 5:00 PM EST
Cal Baptist enters this game with a 10-4 overall record and a 3-4 road record. The Lancers are also 7-6-1 ATS overall and 5-0-1 ATS on the road.
Tarleton State comes into this matchup with a 10-5 overall record and a 7-1 home record. The Texans are 9-2 ATS overall and 3-1 ATS at home.
Tarleton State is coming off a tough loss at home to Utah Valley. Cal Baptist is off a loss at Utah Valley. This is the Lancers’ first game since December 29th, but the Texans played two days ago. Cal Baptist won two out of three games from Tarleton State last year. The Lancers won both home games, but Tarleton State beat Cal Baptist in Stephenville, TX.
Cal Baptist has a reputation for offense, but they rank 264th in offensive efficiency and 213th in shooting percentage. Tarleton State is ranked first in the nation in opponent turnovers per game, but struggles in other areas on defense. Tarleton State is also a much better shooting team from the field and from the free-throw line.
This is a case of the line telling us what’s going to happen. Tarleton State is off a home loss in a tough game. They’re not going to lose two games in a row in conference play. Let’s lock up the Texans to win and cover. There’s a non-zero chance that the line flips. If it does, try to double down on Tarleton State at plus money.
Best Bet: Tarleton State -1.5
Cal Poly at Long Beach State
Start Time: 9:00 PM EST
Cal Poly comes into this game with a 6-9 overall record and a 3-5 road record. The Mustangs are 6-6-1 ATS overall and 5-3-1 ATS on the road.
Long Beach State enters this matchup with a 4-10 overall record and a 4-3 home mark. The Beach is 7-5 ATS overall and 3-2 ATS at home.
Cal Poly has won three of the last five games between these two teams, but they’ve covered all five games. The Mustangs enter this game off a home win over UC-San Diego that broke a four-game losing streak. Long Beach State comes into this matchup off a beatdown of a lower division program.
The handicap here is simple. Cal Poly wants to run and shoot threes. Long Beach State is terrible at defending the perimeter. The Beach allows opponents to shoot 38.0% from three-point range this year. That’s 344th in the nation. If Cal Poly can get loose and get looks against LBSU, watch out. Cal Poly is also the better rebounding team and the better shooting team.
Long Beach State has already dropped two games in conference. They lost at home to UC-San Diego by six. The Tritons are a much better team than Cal Poly, but the Mustangs were able to get past them. In their game against UC-San Diego, Cal Poly only shot 26% from deep. The Mustangs are due for a bit of positive regression, and they should be able to find open looks against Long Beach State. Let’s lock up Cal Poly plus 2.5 points to get home against LBSU.
Best Bet: Cal Poly +2.5
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis on every college basketball game for the 2025-26 season, make sure you tune into The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Moneyline Mac, and Noah Bieniek talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college basketball picks every night!
