It’s hard to believe the final week of the NFL season is here, but this is! The last week of the year is a tough time for many teams, and navigating it can be challenging. Who is playing? Who is sitting? Who is playing a drive, or a quarter? One of the best ways to navigate it, is to peek at these contract incentives. Coaches and players will go out of their way to help their guys hit these contract incentives. Let’s take a look at our top Week 18 NFL player prop bets based on contract incentives.
There are a few games in Week 18 where winning has to come first for teams. Both Saturday games, the Panthers and Buccaneers, as well as the Seahawks and 49ers. Playoff berths, byes, and seeding are all on the line in these games. There are a few other teams playing to finalize their seeding, but the rest of the NFL Playoffs are pretty much set. So for those players who are playing that have these incentives out there, Week 18 is a great week to hyper focus on getting these men paid.
*Not all lines were set yet at time of publishing.
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Top Week 18 NFL Player Prop Bets Based on Contract Incentives
Tony Pollard Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-122)
We played Pollard in this same article last week because at the time he needed just 151 yards to get an additional 250k. He cashed our over, leaving himself only needing another 66 yards to grab that money. Pollard’s production has followed the trend of the Tennessee Titans lately and ramped up to close out the year. Before last week he’d cashed in three straight 100+ yard performances on the ground, even against tough defenses in Cleveland, San Francisco, and Kansas City. Jacksonville is no walk in the park, but I expect Pollard to hit this number and get paid. He does need two additional touchdowns for another 200k. That may be a taller task against the Jaguars, but it’s 12/1 if you are into that kind of thing.
Deebo Samuel Over Catches
The Commanders don’t have much to play for, but getting one of their flashy men paid could certainly motivate them. Deebo Samuel has up to 1.5 million Dollars in incentives within reach this week. The best part about this bet is that the Eagles are sitting out a lot of their starters, so their traditionally tough defense might not be so tough this week. If Samuel can get to 10 catches, it’s 450k. 93 yards is another 450k. Two touchdowns pays 650k. With veteran journeyman Josh Johnson at quarterback, expect most of the Commanders’ offense to run through Samuel. There is no reason they won’t throw him screen pass or pop pass after screen pass or pop pass and let him do the work. If they get near the goal line he can catch it, he can run it. I’ll be rooting for the Washington Samuel’s to win him some money, and win us some money this weekend.
Hunter Henry Over Catches
This Patriots team is a special brotherhood that’s raised this franchise out of a couple of bad years. One constant, steady piece of the team has been tight end Hunter Henry. The Patriots already earned Henry another 250k (nice day at the office) each of the last two weeks by getting him over 50 and then over 55 receptions on the season. Now sitting at 55 catches on the year, Henry can earn an additional 250k each for hitting the 60 and 65 catch marks. Five catches earn him another 250k; if he can snag 10 this week, that’s a cool 500k. The Patriots have an easier matchup against the Miami Dolphins, but still have a lot to play for with the #1 seed on the line, and the team clearly trying to get Drake Maye the MVP.
Keenan Allen Over Catches
This is probably my favorite bet on the board. The Chargers are sitting a lot of starters including Justin Herbert. But if they play Keenan Allen, there is really no reason other than to get their franchise legend paid. Like Samuel, Allen can earn up to one million dollars this week. He just needs 11 yards for 250k which should be an easy task. The big payday though, six catches. If Allen can get to six catches he earns a cool 750k. Look for the Chargers to feed Allen the ball in quick short plays to get their man paid.
Justin Jefferson Over Receiving Yards
This one isn’t a contract prop, but it needs to be included this week. Justin Jefferson is just 53 yards short of a 1,000 yard season. The Vikings superstar has hit this mark in all six of his NFL seasons. There is no way this team and Kevin McConnell will let him fall just short of this number. It doesn’t matter if it’s JJ McCarthy, Max Brosmer, or if McConnell has to go do it himself. The Vikings will do everything in their power to make sure that their franchise star keeps his 1,000 yard streak alive this week.
Khalil Shakir Anytime Touchdown 2+ Touchdown
The Bills top wide receiver has four touchdowns on the year, but if he can get one this weekend it’ll pay him a nice 150k, if he can find paydirt twice it’s a cool 300k the receiver can take home. The New England Patriots did whatever they wanted last week against the New York Jets, and it should be the same story for the Buffalo Bills this week against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Josh Allen should hyper-target one of his toughest wide receivers this week in the red zone whivh they should be in plenty to help his man get paid.
Dawson Knox Over Receptions
Sticking with the Buffalo Bills, who just have the perfect matchup for their passing offense this week. Being one of the most blue collar type teams, it just makes sense they’ll go out of their way to reward these two blue collar pass catchers. Shakir will get the first looks on the goal line, but to get there, expect Buffalo to go after Dawson Knox. Knox is just six receptions away from sparking a 100k bonus. He also just needs seven receiving yards for 100k, and if he can find the end zone once, it’ll be another 100k. Overall, the tight end can earn an extra 300k against one of the easiest defenses in the entire league.
