If you’re betting NFL Week 16 and still feeling emotionally stable, congratulations — you’re doing it wrong. This week on the Stephie Smalls Show, I sat down with Colby Marchio from Betting News to talk player props, best bets, and why vibes are cute but volume pays rent.
We got right into it with Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams, specifically why his passing and completions numbers might look tempting but deserve a long, suspicious stare. We also talked Sam Darnold passing yards, because nothing says “joy” like sweating a quarterback prop you promised yourself you wouldn’t touch again. Colby stayed extremely calm throughout all of this, which I personally found unsettling.
We dug into Tyron Tracy’s rushing attempts and why workload matters more than vibes, broke down Justin Herbert’s passing yardage against the Dallas Cowboys, and explored why some defenses just love letting opposing quarterbacks cook. Tight end props made their appearance too, with Dallas Goedert against the Washington Commanders getting some well-earned attention thanks to recent production trends.
Of course, we couldn’t leave without discussing DeVonta Smith’s longest reception, because explosive-play props are the chaos gremlins of the betting world and I respect that. We also talked Underdog entries, game scripts gone wrong, and why betting late in the season feels like trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube during an earthquake.
If you like player props, sharp angles, and watching Colby patiently explain numbers while I spiral just a little, this episode is for you. NFL Week 16 is weird. Let’s embrace it.
