Week 15 of the NFL kicks off with an NFC South matchup in Tampa Bay. It’s a huge game for the Buccaneers, who hold on to the division lead via tiebreaker over the Carolina Panthers. The Falcons are looking to play spoiler, like any good division rival aims to do. They’ll kick off Thursday Night at 8:15 ET with coverage on Amazon’s Prime streaming. Let’s dive in and preview Falcons-Buccaneers Thursday Night Football, make our game pick, and best bets.
The visiting Atlanta Falcons have officially been eliminated from playoff contention in 2025. They’ve suffered back to back losses to the New York Jets, and last week to the Seattle Seahawks. After starting the year 3-2 and scoring a victory over the Buffalo Bills, the Falcons have now dropped seven of their last eight games, a win over the Saints the only victory since that Buffalo win. It’s not been smooth sailing for Kirk Cousins since taking over for an injured Michael Penix Jr. As of this writing, it’s not looking good for Drake London to return. A big blow for the Falcons.
Tampa Bay dropped an almost inexcusable game to the New Orleans Saints last week. The season started strong going 5-1 including a win over these Falcons 23-20 in Week 1. But they’ve hit a bump in the road losing four of their last five games. They control their destiny to the postseason with two games against the Panthers still on the horizon, but it’s go-time for Baker and the boys. Mike Evans practiced on Tuesday and looks like he will return.
Thursday Night Football Picks, Preview, and Best Bets: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
It’s great to see we’re getting a number this low on Baker Mayfield for Thursday night. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers need to win this game, and coming off a loss, in primetime, Mayfield is going to be fired up for this game. Baker has been using his legs all year, and plenty here lately. Last week he rushed for 42 yards against the Saints, and went for 27 against the Cardinals the week before.
He’s gone over the 17 yard mark in four straight games. He had a three game window before that where he didn’t have a single risking attempt, but in every other game he’s had at least 13 rushing yards. In total, he’s gone over seven times, including five games over 30 yards. Sam Darnold ran for 27 yards last week on this Falcons team.
Bijan Robinson Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
This is going to be a tough game for Atlanta to move the ball, especially if Drake London misses. The Falcons best bet to open the game up is to get their best player out in space with room to work. They weren’t able to do it last week against a stifling Seahawks defense, but it should be a little easier against Tampa Bay.
In Week 1, when these teams played, Robinson had 100 yards through the air on just six catches. He’s gone over this total in two of the last three games against the Buccaneers. This year, he’s had at least 37 receiving yards in nine games. Kirk Cousins will have to get rid of the ball quickly, and Bijan can do work when he gets the ball in his hands.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 (-110)
This is an interesting game. We’ve seen the underdogs come through in a lot of Thursday Night Football divisional games. I don’t think this will be one of them. Atlanta fooled us early in the season by showing up in a few games, including against the Buffalo Bills, their marquee win.
I have no belief in this Falcons team, especially with Kirk Cousins at the helm. On the other side, the Buccaneers were embarrassed by the Saints last week, and need to win games now for their playoff lives. Baker is going to step up and dig deep and find his Dawg mentality. The Buccaneers will roll in this one.
