While the UFC continues to be the king when it comes to MMA and gambling, there is more MMA than ever to bet on now. Promotions all over the world as well as domestic ones are showing up in sportsbooks. The advantage here is that the data is usually quite a bit less sharp than when you’re making MMA predictions for the UFC. So we’ve decided to dig into some each week to get you started on your regional MMA journey. This week we head overseas for PFL MENA 4 from Al Khobar, Saudi Arabia for our regional MMA pick.
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MMA Regional Pick of the Week: PFL MENA 4
PFL MENA 4 Lightweight Fight: Salah Eddine Hamli vs Mohammad Fahmi
Card Start Time: Friday (12/5), 9:30am EST (UFC Fight Pass)
In the lightweight title fight on Friday morning, I believe Fahmi is being overlooked on the moneyline. According to Tapology, Fahmi comes in with a record of just 4-0, which seems light considering the stakes of this fight. However, the light record is because the database has discredited some of his wins as being in unfair fights. While those fights don’t tell us too much, they are clearly swaying the books.
For those reasons, I think Fahmi is a solid underdog play here. Not only is he being overlooked due to that record, but he is clearly the much more well-rounded fighter. If you watch any film on Hamli, you might have trouble locating a standing strike he throws. In his last fight, over the course of three rounds, he may have thrown just three standing strikes. He throws some kicks, but most lack the extension to do much real damage. Fahmi, on the other hand, is a southpaw with some solid feints and a good left straight.
On the ground, Hamli might have an advantage, but he’ll have to get it there first. He shoots a good double leg, but we’ve seen solid wrestling from Fahmi as well. He looked great in that realm against former PFL MENA champion, Mohsen Mohammadseifi. This leads me to believe that the ground games will cancel out and we’ll see most of this fight on the feet. If true, Fahmi should cruise to a victory.
PFL MENA 4 Pick: Mohammad Fahmi ML (+155)
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